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http://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-deal-to-curb-production-in-doubt-oil-prices-rebound-1480481281

Crude futures surged Wednesday on growing optimism that OPEC would agree on a deal to cut oil production later in the day.

But prices remained volatile, and many analysts continue to doubt that if a deal were struck it would be properly enforced or would even be enough to address a supply imbalance that has pressured this market for over two years.

The February contract in Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 7.44% to $50.82 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange, according to FactSet. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 7.25% at $48.51 a barrel, FactSet said.

Prices jumped after Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said ahead of crunch talks in Vienna that he believed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reach a deal, though he said an immediate freeze of his country’s output wasn’t on the agenda.

Talk of OPEC reaching a deal has dominated the oil market for much of the year, as geopolitical maneuvering by key producing nations stopped the cartel from tackling the global oversupply. A proposal would likely have the group cut production by more than a million barrels a day, which represents about 1% of the global oil supply.

That could send the oil price to as much as $55 a barrel, though the lack of a deal would see crude crash back down to around $40 again, some analysts said.

“The communication this morning is extremely positive from Iran,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, a commodities analyst from Sweden’s SEB bank, adding that the market was volatile ahead of the meeting’s outcome.

Iran’s willingness to participate in some way—a long-held Saudi demand—signals a greater likelihood that all OPEC members will agree to a deal. ....

Commodities - Oil Latest OPEC delegate says they have agreed 1.2M BPD cut in production - Bloomberg

OPEC agrees first output cut since 2008, details unclear

Details of how the 32.5M will be work out

The % cut is from 4.58% to 4.85% with special bonus for IRAN +50 and only 2.37% cut for IRAQ.

Country Targeted Cut in Jan 2017 thousands output in of bpd

Country millions bpd
Algeria 1.039 -50
Angola 1.673 -80
Ecuador 0.522 -26
Gabon 0.193 -9
Indonesia suspended
Iran 3.797 +90
Iraq 4.351 -210
Kuwait 2.707 -131
Libya exempt
Nigeria exempt
Qatar 0.618 -30
Saudi 10.058 -486
UAE 2.874 -139
Venezuela 1.972 -95

Non-Opec countries agree to cut oil output

"Gold plunged in afternoon trading in New York yesterday, after the Federal Reserve caught traders off guard with its latest interest rates decision.

The US policymakers voted unanimously to increase base interest rates by 0.25 per cent, to a between 0.5 and 0.75 per cent - the first rates hike this year and only the second in the past decade.

It was a widely expected move, with traders putting the chances of an increase at 100 per cent immediately before the announcement, based on market bets via federal fund futures, Bloomberg reports.

But "it was the Fed's more hawkish stance regarding rate hikes next year that surprised the market," says Investing.com.

The policymakers now forecast they will vote to increase interest rates three times next year, up from the two predicted in September and a sign of confidence in the US economy.

The news brought spot gold, which had been around $1,164 an ounce, plunging to a ten-month low of $1,141 by the end of US trading. It dipped to below $1,138 an ounce this morning."

Dollar index

The start of the day was GOLD $1158.80 +$10.32

Be interesting to see what happens overnight. USA - Russia bickering at the moment causing some ripples, could get a little more serious.

Oil hits 18-month highs as markets eye output cuts

Oil prices rise on expected drop in U.S. oil inventories

Oil prices dip on lingering doubts of supply cut commitments

Oil prices fall as Iran's exports surge, U.S. adds more rigs

As OPEC cuts, traders send European oil volumes to Asia

Is oil price heading back below $50? - By Alistair Strang | Wed, 11th January 2017 - 09:50

technical analysis trends targets Written: 10 January 2017 - 10:55pm

This is causing a degree of puzzle, due to the price hitting the $50s and essentially stopping. Our in-house rule of thumb when this sort of thing happens is to look for reasons it will instead go down, despite the presence of pretty lines on charts.

We've no doubt the downtrend from 2014 was valid but, unfortunately, when the price of Brent bettered this trend, it achieved our initial halfway target then seemed to lose interest. The price was supposed to achieve our secondary above $55 at $60.5, but has failed to show any real strength.

Therefore, the situation now is a bit interesting as, should the price of the product close a session below $53.37, we're looking at coming reversal toward $52.88 initially with secondary, if broken, around $49.15. This would represent a bonk against the red line on the chart below, the immediate uptrend.

At time of writing, Brent is trading at $53.9 and is coming close to triggering a reversal cycle. Of course, the big question is whether $49.15 (or so) would provoke a bounce, or is there a risk of the product dripping below such a point?

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Currently, there is ample reason to believe that below $49.15 will indeed provide a bounce, as movement below would signal the immediate uptrend has failed, propelling the product into a region where $47.4 becomes viable and, frankly, below risks a sharp dip into the 30s.

For now though, our suspicion is the price is trapped, essentially oscillating between the $53.3 and $58.5 level for a while, doubtless waiting an excuse to either weaken or strengthen.

Immediate calculations warn us not to take any rise seriously unless the price betters $56.4, as this should provoke growth to $57.5, a fairly important number 'cos if $57.5 is bettered we shall start talking about $60.5 thereafter.

For now, it's not messy, just pretty boring. Perhaps a visit to the $60.5 level will serve to break the oilers index above the blue line.

Trump dooms dollar to worst January since 2008

Your gold charts in the header don't load any more.
They try to load and then just revert to an icon.

Harry - there seems to be a problem with their site - hopefully its transient!

Harry - I've found an alternative stite for the gold chart - unfortunately MAM restricts my posting it.

Here's the link anyway

Thanks skinny. I have been using the Kitco one in the header on the POG thread for ages, which always seems to work. I am more interested in daily or weekly trends rather than a minute by minute price, as they give me a guide as to where the gold producers price should be going.