18th October 2007 : Leadcom voted "AIM International Company of the Year for 2007"




Main Web Site : http://www.leadcom-is.com/

Investor Relations Email : investorsinfo@leadcom-is.com

Interesting that Altium went direct from offer to bid yesterday, we might see a couple of steps up in the run up to to India news, up to a higher level, see what sells they can get by holding there, and then up again to a higher level.

The Altium price target of 110p (was it that, cannot remember now) does not take into account anything to do with India at all, it only is based on current order book status as from the contract win RNS, which was when they upgraded from their other target in the 27th Feb report.
Throw in a potential billion dollers over 2 or 3 years (07 to 09) and see what that does to forward earnings ratings. With a massive order in the bag, the pr EPS for 07 could well jump from around the 9p to 10p level this current year, up to the 20's for 07 and more 08 and 09. That is why, in my opinion, the Indian JV and the Indian potential is a company maker for LEAD.

Pressure building now, can we move on up to just under the 100p level soon ? ;)

ALTI back on the offer trying to slow it down I think, they must still have orders to fill.

L2 2 v 1 @87/89

And more and more :)

My short term targets are 110p with no further news and then the Q2 trading update, or over 200p if they get the Indian tender awarded in early June :) Just my thoughts and targets !

PP - I like the steady inexorable rise of this one, nothing terribly showy, just bit by bit (apart from the little April dip).

Having said that, if you are right, any part of the Indian tender would probably make it very, very showy indeed!

:)

From macansys' comments and observations it looks like Altium are trying to fill up "their clients" with as much as possible "prior" events. Buying was getting too much and with no real sells coming in, even after a long pause, it was time to step up and see if they can get some sells out at higher levels, but still I would say controlled movements, they will hold where they can, might even drop back a point or two to try to ease some sells out, as time is running out, and June beckons more quickly now.

I am expecting more days like this ahead as the end of the month draws near, each one moving to the next level, to try to tickle a few weak holders into selling out, then perhaps a step back, and then a hold, and then the next one :)

We will see.

Altium Capital 31st March 2006 issued a reiteration of their BUY recommendation and set a new target price of 105p.

Has anyone seen a more recent figure ? Or are they "avoiding" a new figure until after the Indian deal comes in ? ;)

Nope, but I was looking at altium's 44 page buy note from february when they had a price target of 90p when it was at 70p. So people then have made a 30% profit. I wonder with so many institutions mopping up shares if there's a problem with liquidity. Today's buys were very small, they looked to me like ordinary punters buying because it was rising, maybe I'm wrong. Looking at the buy note I was pleased to see altium are forecasting earnings growth of about 25 - 30% a year for the next 3 years, although they themselves say this is "conservative". We'll see. I'm thinking lead might be a share to forget about and leave for a number of years as it's got a big market it could grow into. I wonder if with the lack of liqudity it's not a share that will be volatile in the short term.

Saintserf, yes the original target was a "conservative" 90p, then this was upgraded after the Q1 trading update to a "conservative" 105p. If you were to put LEAD onto a times 20 pr PER ration (low for the sector and also for the growth they are pushing out) then the price should be over 150p. HOWEVER, the big one is India, for if this multi-billion order comes in, you can imagine what it will be doing for earnings. At the moment they are holding the price back whilst behind the scenes "orders are filled" I think. I do not expect it to be below 100p by the end of this month.......we will see. (The Indian tender is due for submition on 31st May)

Retrace today with the market sentiment, time to build up some more next week I think.

Is it unusual for altium to be the market maker as well as the house broker? I'm not sure if it's a good sign that they are the only analyst covering lead. But I'm taking the view that it is, as it's a chance to buy before other analysts cotton on to it.

Saintserf, they are joint broker along with Corporate Synergy, both Altium and CS research reports are in the header.

This seems a very good buy ahead of news as it is running on a low PER at the moment which is very low when taking a forward view of events and appears to have the equivalent "of striking oil" in the form of India news. I shall be with you PP for the rest of this year at Leadcom.

Hi B2B, good to see you here. I look at Leadcom as a very safe investment at present prices. The PER ratio is very low for a growth company as you note, and with such potential in the pipeline to explode earnings, it should be a great few months ahead, and in fact, a good few years ahead for Leadcom.

Oversold today, but the insti's will not complain, a 125K MM buy near the end there, so someone was hoovering up stock (also a 257.5K X trade on TMC at the end)

Absolute bargain at these levels, it was undervalued at 90p, has a "conservative" price target of 105p by Altium, and has the potential of a multi billion dollar order at the end of the this month/June that is not even noted on the price target or brokers report.........

This should have a very big bounce upwards very soon I think !

Yeah but I can't understand why its been marked down so much today.

I think a lot of margined positions, and they have been taken out today (in this kind of market you would expect the SB firms to want profits and so to put clients near to closing under extreme pressure by knocking out stop losses), easy money.

Would expect tomorrow to be stable at the end, if not up.......

Sorry I'm a bit confused by this. Do the Spread betting firms have their own prices regardless of the quoted market prices? So that if Lead is quoting at say 78 p on the markets they can quote the price as 75 or 74p if they know a lot of clients have stop losses a bit lower. Because not all clients will have stops at the same level, eg. 10- 15% down. I thought there was one set of prices , the markets, which the SB firms take their cue from, not their own prices. I'm probably wrong on this.

SB firms have their own internal prices, and these are the ones that trip stop losses. However, they are in line (sometimes ;) ) with market prices.

However, for a SB firm to offer SB on a company, they own stock in the company, and will buy more or sell it to cover their positions. However, in a bad market they might of course sell some of their holding to further weaken a price as when margins grow, they are making profits. They have software and systems that constantly monitor their exposure and can trade in the market to cover or counter positions to maximiise profits for the SB firm.