Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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I love the way, it broke its lower parallel channel line for a bit, then waits til it coincides with 15,800 to obey it again, 100% level of W wave been providing support for last couple of days too;

Don't forget, i am only highlighting observations and sharing thoughts, mainly for myself to use as a diary. I can already look back to the start of the thread and laugh at how i used to label things. That was the whole purpose and the progress has been rapid thus far.

The market has so many phases and being able to adapt quickly to each one as it happens is key to success, as is, not being tied to one count or view.

Happy pips to all, but don't allow my views to alter your own. I have posted many many charts here that have been wrong! Good luck.

Would ideally like to see the Eu print 100% of wave W for wave Y. It would also mean a fresh low, but without breaching the last HL which is a reflex point;



It would actually predict a turn literally to the pip. We haven't bounced off of a fib level, so reckon its high poss.

Ok so, yesterday i posted a chart of the EJ, showing 'Y' = 100% of 'W' (i labeled it simply as an ABC), we have now just made a lovely 5w move off of that very line;



Also, the GJ has bounced cleanly off of its 70.7% level of the prior 3rd wave and made a similar perfect 5w advance;



The bigger picture;



I like this chart a lot. Now, is it the real deal, or has the market played a trick with an irregular 'B' wave beforehand? (thus this would be an ending 'C' wave ready to drop further...). It's difficult to imagine it to be fair and the more likely scenario would be to say that both Yen pairs have now ended their corrective moves...

I might cast my eye over the UJ...

It would be nice to see an extended 5th of current cycle on EJ reaching 12,024...

EJ bigger pic so far;

Can't believe it, but i may have to contradict myself again. Looking at the longer term EJ chart. I believe my 1&2 to be correct, as it leads to wave 3 = 200% of wave 1.

Now, wave 2 was long, simple and shallow, therefore by rule of alternation we should expect wave 4 to be fast, deep and complex;



That looks far more likely (imo)

With so many conflicting thoughts on the overall direction right now, i need to remind myself of a good trade;



This is exactly what i'm looking for and want to make a note.
I think a lot of the best trades are towards the end of each cycle. I always said the easiest wave to recognise is the 3rd (and subsequently the 4th). That is obviously scaleable into each of the subwaves.
Once we have a set of Elliott lines, we can look for an abc counter-trend and whenever the likely end of a 'c' wave nears the lower channel trendline you can go long with stop some pips below the TL (or vica versa for short).
Here i get the added benefit of a valid trigger out of the flagline, this together with the break of the 38.2% Fib ext gives a virtually gauranteed target for the flagtrade generated target and next fib level... It may be just 30 pips, which to most doesn't seem like a big deal, but as i keep mentioning, its not pips, its percentages. That is as good a 1/2% risk:3/4% reward trade as you can find anywhere, with high probability outcome when executed properly.
Find net two wins like that a week and you are banking 5/6/7% a week or 20/25% gain a month... That's realistic too. I empthasise 'net' wins, 4 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss and a favourable R/R ratio to boot.

Add exponential growth to that and the figures start to multiply well. You don't need to look to catch huge moves, just to add several things together to find a high probability trade.

Been a tough couple of weeks. I really thought i was good enough to trade complex corrective moves, but i've been chewed up and spat out by the markets.
So to highlight the above makes me feel a little more relaxed again.

Post 250;

FTSE;

'Fifth's can grind on up mercilessly and continue to have extended subwaves, so its difficult to call an absolute top for this cycle, but i would imagine if, it goes higher again now, it will bang its head on the upper trendline drawn off of the top of the 'iii' wave.'

here's what i meant;

It doesn't mean its the top, but it was always going to be a target, once it broke the intermediate line on Tuesday. I went long yesterday @ 6184, but couldn't read what it was doing so closed for -2... i then missed the later test of the lower TL... sh*t happens!

Phenomenal performance by the EJ today. We have just reacted at the 76.4% level of 5th projection, but look where the 100% level would get us.... a fresh high!



It should be significant as to whether it reverses here or does indeed print a new high

Ok, so after getting back up off of the floor again this last couple of days, (put there once again courtesy of Mr.Market!). I have dusted myself off, given myself a good talking too and its onwards.

That Ej chart of yesterday is an awesome chart. The count was a little out, but it matters little. The levels work the same, but the channel was the entire acceleration channel of the 3rd wave and the prior count was merely for the subwaves of the 3rd.
I went long again (red circle) last night @ 12,010. It was a 38.2% retrace of prior wave (subwave 'iii') coinciding with the lower channel TL. Stop can be placed merely a few pips below the TL. I gave it 15 pips room to breath in case of a little spike down, but that was plenty, (further than that and something was wrong, indicating a trend change of some degree). Later i hit limit for plus 72. It should have been more but i had to leave charts for a couple hours... In any case, as per my previous post. that's a high probability trade with risk:reward of nearly 1:5. Perfect trade, well executed and i'm all smiles again.

Here's the chart update;



After studying and establishing the above this morning, i entered long again @ 12,099 with a valid flag trigger out of the 4th. Currently 48pips to the good with stop at BE. Risk was 36pips.

I spent a good chunk of the rise yesterday trying to determine if it could be labeled an abc and thus was still part of the corrective move. This is despite having already flagged that 'Y' = 'W'. The bounce off of the 100% level was perfect.
I basically made the mistake of thinking we were in the full 4th corrective wave and should, by usual rule of alternation from the 2nd wave, be heading sharply lower yet (hence this chart of yesterday);



What i failed to realise was that the prev abc was not the 4th of the 3rd, but merely another subwave 'iv'. This means we have just completed the 4th of the 3rd and thus stayed within the whole 3rd wave acceleration channel, indeed the channel line coincided with the 100% level (W=Y) and thus provided support and reason for the bounce too;



Now, this explains why, the 5w set starting yesterday, isn't a smaller subwave set (wave 1) of a much larger 5th, it will indeed be, the whole 5th of the 3rd taking us to the top channel line in one quick blast. If i had known this before, i could have cleaned up yesterday. I didn't but i learnt a little bit more again.

See the similarities between the 15min and daily charts?. The importance of establishing the acceleration channel for the 3rd wave is clear to see. Long off of fib retracements coinciding with a test of the lower line gives these high prob, favourable R:R trades...

FTSE to hit 6290/6300 later? Will do a chart if requested...

Just reacted at the 38.2% 5th projection, but i don't think that was the top...

Here we have the 61.8% level coinciding with the 5w set upper TL (red), the Daily upper TL (green) and 12,300 all together;

Davai - 25 Jan 2013 08:19 - 267 of 268

FTSE to hit 6290/6300 later?

This is straight up, i nearly said to hit 6293 before close of play, here's why;

Davai - 24 Jan 2013 15:46 - 263 of 269

It doesn't mean its the top, but it was always going to be a target, once it broke the intermediate line on Tuesday. I went long yesterday @ 6184, but couldn't read what it was doing so closed for -2... i then missed the later test of the lower TL... sh*t happens!

-----------------------------

How the hell can i preach, higher to come, go with trend etc, manage to get long at 6184, more importantly, with stop at 6179 and then stop myself out manually cos i then decide that i couldn't read the prior overnight action? It came within 0.5 pip of stop, but that was placed strategically according to my original thought. It would have stood, so 5 pip risk and now 100+ pips higher... sometimes i need shooting...

Ah, i remember now, it made a lovely looking 3w abc move down from a minor 5w up, after initially climbing from there, it spoilt it all by making a fresh low, this changed my initial view and i closed for -2. I think this may also indicate my underlying state of mind after the last two weeks trading.

Confidence breeds confidence, but the same is true in the opposite direction. Go on a losing run and it can easily multiply. A trade is a trade, simple, but as we all know, it takes more than that to be successful. There are so many aspects to trading and i think discipline is actually the hardest part to conquer. I know a good trade when i see it, no question. But through my desire to make more, a hunger for success, it breeds greed and its that greed that is ultimately the undoing.

Normally i can control it, but i've actually learnt so much in the last month or so, that i think i let it get away from me a bit. I became over-confident and that is when i must be most fearful. The 'i can trade complex moves... watch this...' attitude makes the market laugh at you and with one flex of its muscles, you're back on your arse!

Ok, well, its weekend. At least i recognise my mistakes, mistakes are good! The learning never stops, but lets get the discipline in order. Without it, you'll never make any headway...

Have a good weekend all... and keep smiling )

Waiting to see if cable has a reaction at the 15,665 area. Missed a rejection of an upper channel line on Friday amongst all else going on... In fact i've been far too slow here, with a lovely short entry last Wednesday at the upper trendline (blue circle) missed. My earlier thoughts about the wedge not being complete are looking unlikely now, if that was an irregular 'B' of wave 2, we can expect 3 to be extended, so plenty of downside to come. I still don't like the start of the 3rd though... really struggling to label it, so caution req'd in case this is complex, even so, shorting off of the line (particularly when combined with the 38.2% retrace) proved yet more low risk/high prob trading...

Hmmmmm that above chart and statement has got me in knots! 'C' waves aren't usually as steep as wave 3's, look at the channel compared to wave 1! Not as steep... its possible this is a complex correction, along with the start of the channel which clearly looks more a&b, so instead of 1&2, we have A&B, in which case look for perhaps more than just a reaction off of 15,865 area, (although C could go on to 161.8/200% etc), its too difficult to label in waves, so i'm not going to attempt it, another pointer to it still being corrective... lets see... the best shorts have undoubtedly been and gone in this channel set, (unless i can work this out for sure and get some kind of count).