cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
dealerdear
- 15 Sep 2008 08:44
- 2553 of 21973
Agree Strawbs. ATM the panic selling has left the market. HBOS opened about 10% down, went to -15% but then rose. Seems to me that traders are and have been for several weeks trying to buy the drops which is a change from several mnths ago. We shall see!
Strawbs
- 15 Sep 2008 08:45
- 2554 of 21973
I was reading all about the 1929 crash earlier in the year. Everyone associates the great crash with lots of suicides, but in fact it was no worse than the average. I think it just adds to the drama of the event, which is why it's stuck in peoples memories.
I'd imagine gold will do well as a "safe play" in uncertain times.
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
Strawbs
- 15 Sep 2008 08:48
- 2555 of 21973
Yep DealerDear. Seems to be more of a "media" event than a "market" event at the moment. Still. Early days I suppose. Someone always jumps in too early to catch the knife........ It used to be be at one time! LOL.
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
dealerdear
- 15 Sep 2008 08:51
- 2556 of 21973
I've got so many stab marks on my body I leak like a sieve :-(
Falcothou
- 15 Sep 2008 08:52
- 2557 of 21973
I'm long gold strawbs from 740 after being stopped out after going long at 760 which I thought was the support. Recent events would suggest that gold has support at 740, cable at 1.745 and euro dollar at 1.39 for future reference.
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 08:56
- 2558 of 21973
rather agree re current fall, for as i commented a few days ago when Dow surged, "What diff does the potential rescue of Lehman's make?" ..... however, am happy to leave my short running
Strawbs
- 15 Sep 2008 10:54
- 2559 of 21973
Question is, once you start to shake the tree (e.g. no more bailouts), how many more bad apples will fall, and will they take out a lot of previously good ones on the way down !
The authorities are assuming systemic risk is losing the foundations, which causes the house to fall down. What if the house bricks are actually in a worse state than the foundations? Same result, different trigger.
Whatever happens, it'll be an interesting slice of economic history. For all the lessons of the 1930's, maybe government intervention has merely bought time, rather than prevent what could be another great depression.
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 10:56
- 2560 of 21973
all i can say is that, considerably to my surprise, our chemicals-focussed biz, which is usually one of the first sectors to suffer in economic downturn, remains robust ...... whether all will suddenly come home to roost in 2009, i have no way of telling
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 11:15
- 2561 of 21973
Falco .... gold all over the shop ...... opened +$3 then shot up to +16 and now back to +7!
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 11:50
- 2562 of 21973
now watching FTSE with a view to closing short and maybe even going long as fall possibly or even probably overdone
further to go (below 11000) for Dow before looking to close
Strawbs
- 15 Sep 2008 11:52
- 2563 of 21973
I'm still backing a collapse to 4300 (good support) and a finish to the month around 4700...... Well. That's what I've picked for the "FTSE 2008" thread anyway..... :-)
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 12:10
- 2564 of 21973
it won't be in a straight line even if you are correct
Strawbs
- 15 Sep 2008 12:22
- 2565 of 21973
:-) True. It's probably a bit opptomistic anyway for a single month! It just looked like good support on the chart to me, so if the market continues trending downwards (over whatever time period) I would expect some good support at that level. I still wouldn't rule out 3500 or lower over time though. Assuming of course the credit crunch continues to play out badly. If you look at the 10 year chart, there's a lot of symetry to the moves. Looks like different topping formations, but otherwise similar. As Twain said, "History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes".
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
HARRYCAT
- 15 Sep 2008 12:25
- 2566 of 21973
DOW now -370.
How do you guys know what will happen at the open?
Presumably if the decline continues it will drag the FTSE further down???
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 12:38
- 2567 of 21973
if i KNEW i would have retired long ago!
have actually taken profit in both FTSE and Dow and have gone long FTSE with sensible stop
Falcothou
- 15 Sep 2008 13:03
- 2568 of 21973
The Fed will be wrestling with the kitchen sink again. Call me suspicious but I think Barclay's pretence of buying Lehman's was more about showing a display of strength and having something in reserve than any serious desire to buy it. Gold seems strangely tied at the waist to crude
stroreysj
- 15 Sep 2008 13:08
- 2569 of 21973
on a separate subject if a bank goes down and the governement does not step in do depositors loose all of their money ? Although im not sure I think they do so have spread my hard earned cash between 3 of them
dealerdear
- 15 Sep 2008 13:26
- 2570 of 21973
think you're guaranteed the first 35000 or 70000 if a couple
stroreysj
- 15 Sep 2008 13:30
- 2571 of 21973
thanks dealerdear. I thought it was a token effort like you mention. Fingers crossed they stay solvent. I think we will dodge the bullet on this one but if AIG have their backs against the wall dod knows what poo will hit the fan
cynic
- 15 Sep 2008 13:32
- 2572 of 21973
US has different rules from (NOT "to"!) UK, so not sure ..... also, as Lehman's were, I think, an investment bank, rather than a retail bank, a great many things may be different