< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Hold until it's 70p

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
30 Oct VSA Capital 115.00 Hold
30 Oct Westhouse... 110.00 Neutral
30 Oct Deutsche Bank 110.00 Hold
28 Oct Credit Suisse 115.00 Outperform

Chartist considers 72p support level?

worth a tickle

Yep !....going long...drop well overdone...

Buying?

I will wait till the late 2011 support at 72p is being reach.
The way the share price is moving lower it could easilly fall to that price, and if bounces from there, then it would be the right time to get in, as there is a strong support line at 72p.

That's just guesswork....to me this looks like an absolute bargain at this level....

RF

What price have you bought at this morning ?

Just over 79......I cannot watch it all the time so can't get bottom lows but I reckon that a serious rebound is coming....and I will be patient...

I reckon that traders are drip-feeding sales into the market in odd numbers....and then will buy back in large numbers soon.....like 100000 or more...

ref - required field - 31 Oct 2014 11:14 - 2563 of 2566
That's just guesswork....

--------------
my comment was with reasons why

your post maybe we can call it gueswork, as there are no reasons
your buy at 79p is already well out of pocket and still falling now 76.63p after being much lower earlier 74.60p

Keep an eye on lower Bollinger Band for a bounce back inside.

Chris

THAT IS A GOOD POINT

BUT THE LOWER BAND WILL KEEP DROPPING ALSO AS TIME PASS BY,
At this moment the share price is below that point, so with time will get back inside.

Will be a question of bouncing back of passing time

mentor - Agreed, I haven't traded it for a couple of years. Plenty of scope to get back in if or when it recovers. Never easy trying to predict bottoms or tops.

If good news is in the pipeline.....all this tops, bottoms, bands or what...well...you can throw it out the window.....do you have faith is this company recovering ?...I do....so 2p out of pocket ?....it's a joke as it stands....patience,,,it willl rebound strongly.....I'm not glued to the markets so have to buy and wait which is more difficult but if the company is a good'un....no need to wait for the bottom 24/hrs a day.....XEL is another in silly price territory...COP is another....along with GKP, FPM and IAE....oil is not the flavour of the month but as economies recover,....demand will increase...if AFR has not reached the bottom : I'll stay put...but it might have and the bounce could be 10 or 20p up !....very quickly...

Or you could buy a few more and average down?

Sorry rf no offence intended, good luck with it.

Beaufort Securities 31st October 2014
Afren (LON:AFR) – Buy
Afren announced its unaudited interim management statement and financial results for the nine months ended 30th September 2014. The company also included a year-to-date operational update. Average net production for the nine months stood at 31,377 barrels of oil per day (bopd) with the full year guidance remaining between 32,000 to 36,000 bopd. Revenues for the period declined 34% to US$798.5m from US$1.2bn, in addition to the operating profit contraction of 57.3% to US$213.3m from US$500.6m. However, the post-tax profits improved to US$167.1m from US$128.6m, reflecting tax exemption at Ebok. Moreover, basic earnings per share from continuing operations climbed to 15.4c from 12.1c last year. On the operational front, final investment decision was taken for Aje and Okoro further field development, while a Wellhead jacket would be installed at Okwok in the fourth quarter. First oil is expected from all these facilities in 2015. At the Ebok Central Fault Block (ECFB) Extension, a platform is likely to be installed in Q4 2014. Drilling campaign started on OML 26 whereas OPL 310 is expected to be drilled for appraisal in 2015. Exploration drilling would soon begin with Ebok deep exploration well followed by Ameena East prospect on OML 115.
Our view: Afren reported a subdued top line growth owing to unfavourable weather conditions and installation delays at ECFB, and additional downtime at OML 26. The suspended operations at the Barda Rash facility also impacted the company’s production rates. Nevertheless, we expect the situation to improve in the next quarter following the resumption of field operations. Recently, an independent review absolved Afren of any further illegal payment charge after some of its senior officials were dismissed. We believe that the company’s present valuation makes it an attractive stock pick. We retain our Buy rating.

From Mr Poshman on another board

Agree they have lost some quality individuals but I'm sure they will search and find some more.

In fact in some ways it may suit the company to get some new leadership anyway, Osman has been in charge since 2005 and it would be good to get some new ideas and have a full review of the assets that we have.

The IMS wasn't that bad, was certainly a mixed bag. On the face of it, profit and cashflow look poor, but there would circumstances that impacted this. Profit was impacted by the Ghana writedown ($35.5m) and also seemed to have a large tax charge (all in the quarter), only added about $8m in the quarter but would be interested to see the normalised number. GM% was still strong, despite the drop away in the oil price in the last few months. They have hedged about a 3rd of production so still impacted by falling prices on the remainder.

Cashflow from ops was impacted by tax paid ($8m in H1 and $45m in Q3, I think probably deferred from first half of 2014). Underlying cash from ops was still quite strong, net debt was always likely to go up in this quarter due to ongoing development works expect the same in Q4. I'm expecting somewhere around $1bn net debt by the end of the year.

Some will worry about this, but the vast majority of the capex in the last 2 years has been spent on continued development of their assets which will result in increased production.

Ebok was obviously a poor component in the quarter and probably the reason for the fall in the SP since the IMS though I do think it has been overdone. Ebok had a poor quarter of production (down to around 23k) and also delays on the CFB extension installation. Good things are going on at Ebok are surrounding the Ebok North wells. I assume the production from the 1st well hasn't be running for long being as they are talking about testing of upto 5k bopd rather than average rates, so this will be upside as well as the 2nd well in the NFB. The others will only impact on 2015. Bit of a mixed bag from Ebok this quarter.

Okoro going well, 2 wells have been completed and will take Okoro back towards the production capacity for Okoro which is 22k bopd, should get somewhere between 20-21k bopd gross going forwards now from Okoro, even without the full field development of the extension planned for 2015.

I assume the rig from Okoro is either heading to OML115 and then Ebok to drill the 2 exploration wells and I assume the rig will then move onto development drilling at Okwok in early 2015.

OML26 also looking good, the flow rates from Ogini-22, with another due to come online shortly, and a 3rd in January then gross production from OML26 should be getting close to 10k bopd in January. Interesting to see that in the IMS they have stated 5 wells on OML26, when the interims stated 3. I wonder if they have been pleased with the flow rates and have decided to accelerate some of that drilling.

Barda Rash looks like it may be a bit more complicated than hoped looking at the problems seen with BR-4 and BR-5.

Overall its not a bad IMS but not filled with a load of fantastic news. Most of this news was already known though, and considering we have fallen close to 50% in the last 4 months, I think more than priced in.

Development s continuing and its feasible to be targeting 50k bopd by the end of 2015 net to Afren.

Ebok (current) - 30k
Okoro (current) - 10k
OML26 - 4.5k
Okoro extension - 10k
Okwok - 10k

I think they will be targeting higher production from Okoro and Okwok but I have only looked at net production here, if we pay for the vast majority of the development expenditure then we will have a higher working interest and therefore could even be higher.

Disappointed with where the shares are at but the company is continuing to move forward with their projects IMO.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2817711/SUNDAY-NEWSPAPER-SHARE-TIPS-Standard-Life-Energy-Assets-Afren.html
#
he investment case for Afren isn’t clear. Shares in the FTSE250 oil explorer have halved since an ‘unauthorised payments’ scandal erupted in July.
There was a big drop in production at its Ebok field, accounting for two-thirds of group sales. There have long been concerns that Afren was taking too much oil too quickly.
Afren blamed the slump on bad weather and pipeline problems. Watch this space.