Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Oh yes...in a special place..

chocco do u have special talents then......

Just sold my 921 for 70 ;)

Only one remaining now with a stop at 900 - so will let it ride I think.

Feel a lot calmer after a stressful morning.

You know what they say choccy - keep your hand on your halfpenny and it'll serve you well !!

Closed my final 925 for 80 ;))))))))

Off to do some boring day job stuff - well afternoon job stuff I suppose.

Looks like premature withdrawl - story of my life ;(

Never mind - mustn't be greedy !!

Hilary are you still mooing??

I am indeed, Bob.

MG dont knock 80 points, well done

Good call Hils

Had a nice little long from 798 to 828..
but then effin fins froze on the way down from 850.. :(

any one else being playing swissy today moved ver nicley betwee 00/30

From The Daily Reckoning..


A hopeful sign, dear reader; that maybe the Anglo-lumpen
are finally coming to their senses.

Something remarkable happened towards the end of last
year: consumers cut back. In November, US consumer
credit dropped by more than it ever had dropped since
they began keeping the numbers 60 years ago. In
December, Britain's high street stores suffered their
slowest Christmas period for 10 years. In fact,
according to the head of the British Retail Consortium,
it was "the worst in living memory."

And now, the customers stumble. Each time credit was
offered a loan at below-market rates, what else could
the average man do but take it? Is it any wonder they're
now awash in it? The average middle-class American has
more debt than ever before. The average central banker
in Asia has more US dollar credits than ever
before...and more factories, too. And the whole world
economy - or at least two big pieces of it: US
consumption and Asian production - now depends on the
American consumer. He must somehow continue to
spend...or the whole thing falls apart.

That is why last week's news was so shocking. Never
before had US consumers held back so much - consumer
credit fell by $87 billion in just 4 weeks. "They're
just waiting for better deals at Christmas," said the
analysts. But Christmas came and went in America as it
did in Britain; not only were holiday sales less than
expected, the profit in them almost all disappeared
because of aggressive discounting. Not even selling
products at a loss was enough to keep the Anglo-
Americans buying.

Is this the beginning of something big? Or just a fluke?
We don't know yet...but we will know soon.

If it is the beginning of a consumer pullback, what will
the world-improvers at the Fed and the Bank of England
do about it this time?



THE DOLLAR'S DOUBTFUL FUTURE
by Hans Sennholz

If the love of money is the root of all evil, the
depreciation of money must be the mainspring of all
shams and frauds. It works silently and covertly,
impoverishing many...while it enriches a few...and
thereby inflicts great harm on social cooperation and
international relations.

A few economists are sounding the alarm about the
decline of the US dollar. In recent months, the world's
reserve currency fell visibly toward the euro and
Japanese yen and is likely to fall even lower. But most
Americans refuse to be alarmed, as they are unaware of
exchange rates and foreign exchange markets. Why should
they be troubled about the financial affairs of money
traders and dealers?

We may not be able to see the future, but we can always
learn from the past. Looking at the recent history of
the dollar, this economist perceives distinct stages
with various characteristics, causes, and consequences.
One stage was from the end of World War II to 1971, when
the US dollar was tied to a small anchor of gold.
President Nixon cut its ties and embarked on a wholly
new road of fiat dollar management. Many other countries
readily accepted the new system, acclaiming its
flexibility and manageability.

At this time, the world is still travelling this road,
but several countries are making preparations for
leaving it and proceeding toward a multiple standard
system. It is not clear whether they will depart in an
orderly fashion or in crisis and contention.

Throughout the decades, some economists were always
worried about the magnitude of the trade deficits and
the vulnerability of the American dollar. But their
fears proved to be unfounded because they underestimated
the worldwide demand for dollars and the willingness of
non-US investors and central bankers to trust and hold
US dollars. After all, until recently, the deficits
never exceeded three percent of American GDP, and
Americans still were net creditors in their foreign
accounts. By now, the dollar standard has reached a
stage in which not only a few economists, but also some
foreign creditors are beginning to question its future.
The Federal US government is swimming in an ocean of
debt. In its first term, the Bush administration
increased the Federal debt by $2.2 trillion. Congress
raised the Treasury debt ceiling three times, by $450
billion in 2002, by $984 billion in 2003, and by another
$800 billion on November 19, 2004, to $8 trillion 184
billion. The ready willingness of Congress to finance
such deficits is a clear indication of the political and
ideological mould and make of most members of Congress
and the public that elects them.

Foreign observers are drawing similar conclusions. The
Bank of Japan, with more than $800 billion in dollar
obligations, already announced its reluctance to
increase its holding. China, with dollar reserves
exceeding $500 billion, is labouring under
"unsustainable US trade deficits." Asian banks
altogether, holding more than $2 trillion in American
obligations are suffering hundred billion dollar losses
in terms of purchasing power. It is not surprising that
the central banks of India and Russia, as well as some
Middle East investors, have begun to sell dollar
obligations.

According to some estimates, foreign banks and investors
are holding some $9 trillion of US paper assets. They
own some 43 percent of US Treasuries, 25 percent of
American corporate bonds, and 12 percent of US corporate
equities. They obviously are suffering losses whenever
the dollar falls against their respective currencies;
even if they are pegged to the dollar, they are
incurring losses against all others that are rising.

The dollar standard surely would enter its final phase
of disintegration if its holders would panic and start
selling their American paper investments - their US
Treasuries, US agencies, and corporate bonds and shares.
The crash would be felt around the world and neither
foreign sellers, nor American authorities, could be
trusted to react rationally in the fear and noise of the
crash. The scene could be similar to the political
bedlam of the early 1930s.

There always is the hope that the primary creditors will
act in concert and once again bail out the debtor. The
European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of
China, and the Bank of England may decide to avert the
unthinkable and support the dollar by mopping up huge
quantities. The mopping would stabilise the situation
once again by inflating and depreciating their own
currencies; they would pass the depreciation losses on
to their own nationals. Optimists in our midst are
hoping for this scenario; they are convinced that the
Bush administration will, in time, save the situation by
balancing its budget and the Federal Reserve will allow
interest rates to seek market levels. Such a policy
would avert the dollar dilemma, although it would lead
to a painful recession, forcing all economic factors to
readjust to market conditions.

Pessimists in our midst cast doubt on such a scenario.
They point not only to the host of legislators and
regulators who cherish their position and power, but
also to public opinion and ideology, which call for
government favours. They are prepared to proceed on the
present road and brace for the morrow. A few cynics even
contend that a government facing a financial crisis of
such magnitude is prone to divert public attention from
its ominous path by embarking upon foreign adventures.

This economist is ever mindful that debts do not fade or
pass away. Individuals must face them, deal with them,
or renege in bankruptcy. Governments have an additional
option: As the issuers of their own currencies, they may
inflate and depreciate their debts away. The United
States government has done this ever since it cast aside
the gold standard and imposed the dollar standard. It
undoubtedly will continue to do so as far as the eye can
see. It is an iniquitous road, which individuals would
soon be barred from travelling, but governments love to
take, shedding their debts one percent at a time. It is
a road of the dollar standard designed at Bretton Woods,
built by the US government, managed by the Federal
Reserve System, and financed largely by creditor central
banks in Europe and Asia. It is a road on which the fall
in dollar value has inflicted losses on all foreign
dollar holders, each in proportion to the amount of
dollars held. It is the political road of debt default
the magnitude of which amounts to trillions of dollars,
undoubtedly the largest in the history of international
relations. It will be remembered for generations to
come.

It is unlikely that the US Federal government and the
Federal Reserve will soon mend their ways, but it also
is doubtful that foreign creditors will continue their
support indefinitely. The US dollar is bound to continue
to depreciate and gradually surrender its role as the
world's primary reserve currency to a multiple reserve-
currency system resting on the euro, Japanese yen,
Chinese renminbi, and the American dollar. The multiple-
standard system is likely to perform more efficiently
and equitably than the dollar standard. Competition
would avoid the abuses and inequities of a monopolistic
system. Confining the powers of the Federal Reserve
System and constraining the deficit aptitude of the US
Treasury, it would ward off any further inundation of
the world with US dollars.

In idle reverie of years long past, this economist is
tempted to compare the gold standard with the dollar
standard. Throughout the long history of the gold
standard, the balance of payments of gold-producing
countries was usually "unfavourable." Since the birth of
the dollar standard, the United States has assumed the
position of the gold-producing countries; its balance of
payments usually is unfavourable. Much capital and
labour were spent to find, mine, refine, and market
gold; the United States bears minuscule expense in the
production of its money. Market forces limited the
quantity of gold coming to market; the quantity of
dollars depends on the judgment of Federal Reserve
governors who are appointed by the President. In times
of turmoil and war, the quantity of gold mined does
decline; in such times the stock of fiat dollars tends
to multiply and its value depreciates quickly.

The quantity of gold is limited by nature and its value
is enhanced by many non-monetary uses; fiat and
fiduciary moneys have no such uses or limitations. They
are the sorry creation of politics.

nice chocco...


any usd chf folowrs




Price: 1.1725

Resistance: 1.1758 ... 1.1790 ... 1.1810 ... 1.1840
Support....: 1.1710 ... 1.1670 ... 1.1635 ... 1.1584

Bias: Slightly mixed - though with a mildly bearish preference while the 1.1758 resistance holds

Bullish: Break above 1.1712 has seen a move that is approaching the 1.1756-86 congestion resistance. Indeed, any bullish scenario reqires a break of this area with resistance identified this morning at 1.1758-60. Should this break we would then expect to see gains extend towards 1.1790-1.1810 which could stall progress though later we would expect to see a test at 1.1886-94.

Bearish: Break of 1.1712 has caused the recovery to bite deeper and is now approaching the key 1.1758-60 resistance. We feel there is a good chance that this will hold and cause an initial drift back lower to the 1.1700-10 area which could stall temporarily. A break at 1.1700 is required to accelerate losses down to 1.1666-74, then below 1.1625 and we feel a stronger move could see 1.1543 later today

long cable @ 07
shrt chf @35

- cable @ 37
+ chf @ 09 :)

back later good luck

WOOF WOOF Cable

one thing i think i should mention but keep forgetting,is on friday about 3.30 onwards..watch the major`s its when the hedge funds black boxes get working and they normally take a position that matches the move`s for the previous week...

eur usd cable both moved lower following wekkly trend

it happens every friday and they always move the way on the weekly trend

usd chf a hedge fav at 3pm 1.18 5pm ldn close 1.18 30
it happens every friday so be aware of it easy money...

Thanks mos,will make a note for future ref. Sounds like a useful piece of info

Hil: If you're around, the new MoneyAM/marketStream service launched today gives you mobile FX at your dainty little fingertips. Your mate Doris started a thread on it this morning . . .

Is that the commode alternative that you showed me when I didn't meet you a year ago, D?

:o)