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The Forex Thread (FX)
hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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chocolat
- 13 Jan 2005 23:07
- 2575 of 11056
From The Daily Reckoning..
A hopeful sign, dear reader; that maybe the Anglo-lumpen
are finally coming to their senses.
Something remarkable happened towards the end of last
year: consumers cut back. In November, US consumer
credit dropped by more than it ever had dropped since
they began keeping the numbers 60 years ago. In
December, Britain's high street stores suffered their
slowest Christmas period for 10 years. In fact,
according to the head of the British Retail Consortium,
it was "the worst in living memory."
And now, the customers stumble. Each time credit was
offered a loan at below-market rates, what else could
the average man do but take it? Is it any wonder they're
now awash in it? The average middle-class American has
more debt than ever before. The average central banker
in Asia has more US dollar credits than ever
before...and more factories, too. And the whole world
economy - or at least two big pieces of it: US
consumption and Asian production - now depends on the
American consumer. He must somehow continue to
spend...or the whole thing falls apart.
That is why last week's news was so shocking. Never
before had US consumers held back so much - consumer
credit fell by $87 billion in just 4 weeks. "They're
just waiting for better deals at Christmas," said the
analysts. But Christmas came and went in America as it
did in Britain; not only were holiday sales less than
expected, the profit in them almost all disappeared
because of aggressive discounting. Not even selling
products at a loss was enough to keep the Anglo-
Americans buying.
Is this the beginning of something big? Or just a fluke?
We don't know yet...but we will know soon.
If it is the beginning of a consumer pullback, what will
the world-improvers at the Fed and the Bank of England
do about it this time?
THE DOLLAR'S DOUBTFUL FUTURE
by Hans Sennholz
If the love of money is the root of all evil, the
depreciation of money must be the mainspring of all
shams and frauds. It works silently and covertly,
impoverishing many...while it enriches a few...and
thereby inflicts great harm on social cooperation and
international relations.
A few economists are sounding the alarm about the
decline of the US dollar. In recent months, the world's
reserve currency fell visibly toward the euro and
Japanese yen and is likely to fall even lower. But most
Americans refuse to be alarmed, as they are unaware of
exchange rates and foreign exchange markets. Why should
they be troubled about the financial affairs of money
traders and dealers?
We may not be able to see the future, but we can always
learn from the past. Looking at the recent history of
the dollar, this economist perceives distinct stages
with various characteristics, causes, and consequences.
One stage was from the end of World War II to 1971, when
the US dollar was tied to a small anchor of gold.
President Nixon cut its ties and embarked on a wholly
new road of fiat dollar management. Many other countries
readily accepted the new system, acclaiming its
flexibility and manageability.
At this time, the world is still travelling this road,
but several countries are making preparations for
leaving it and proceeding toward a multiple standard
system. It is not clear whether they will depart in an
orderly fashion or in crisis and contention.
Throughout the decades, some economists were always
worried about the magnitude of the trade deficits and
the vulnerability of the American dollar. But their
fears proved to be unfounded because they underestimated
the worldwide demand for dollars and the willingness of
non-US investors and central bankers to trust and hold
US dollars. After all, until recently, the deficits
never exceeded three percent of American GDP, and
Americans still were net creditors in their foreign
accounts. By now, the dollar standard has reached a
stage in which not only a few economists, but also some
foreign creditors are beginning to question its future.
The Federal US government is swimming in an ocean of
debt. In its first term, the Bush administration
increased the Federal debt by $2.2 trillion. Congress
raised the Treasury debt ceiling three times, by $450
billion in 2002, by $984 billion in 2003, and by another
$800 billion on November 19, 2004, to $8 trillion 184
billion. The ready willingness of Congress to finance
such deficits is a clear indication of the political and
ideological mould and make of most members of Congress
and the public that elects them.
Foreign observers are drawing similar conclusions. The
Bank of Japan, with more than $800 billion in dollar
obligations, already announced its reluctance to
increase its holding. China, with dollar reserves
exceeding $500 billion, is labouring under
"unsustainable US trade deficits." Asian banks
altogether, holding more than $2 trillion in American
obligations are suffering hundred billion dollar losses
in terms of purchasing power. It is not surprising that
the central banks of India and Russia, as well as some
Middle East investors, have begun to sell dollar
obligations.
According to some estimates, foreign banks and investors
are holding some $9 trillion of US paper assets. They
own some 43 percent of US Treasuries, 25 percent of
American corporate bonds, and 12 percent of US corporate
equities. They obviously are suffering losses whenever
the dollar falls against their respective currencies;
even if they are pegged to the dollar, they are
incurring losses against all others that are rising.
The dollar standard surely would enter its final phase
of disintegration if its holders would panic and start
selling their American paper investments - their US
Treasuries, US agencies, and corporate bonds and shares.
The crash would be felt around the world and neither
foreign sellers, nor American authorities, could be
trusted to react rationally in the fear and noise of the
crash. The scene could be similar to the political
bedlam of the early 1930s.
There always is the hope that the primary creditors will
act in concert and once again bail out the debtor. The
European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of
China, and the Bank of England may decide to avert the
unthinkable and support the dollar by mopping up huge
quantities. The mopping would stabilise the situation
once again by inflating and depreciating their own
currencies; they would pass the depreciation losses on
to their own nationals. Optimists in our midst are
hoping for this scenario; they are convinced that the
Bush administration will, in time, save the situation by
balancing its budget and the Federal Reserve will allow
interest rates to seek market levels. Such a policy
would avert the dollar dilemma, although it would lead
to a painful recession, forcing all economic factors to
readjust to market conditions.
Pessimists in our midst cast doubt on such a scenario.
They point not only to the host of legislators and
regulators who cherish their position and power, but
also to public opinion and ideology, which call for
government favours. They are prepared to proceed on the
present road and brace for the morrow. A few cynics even
contend that a government facing a financial crisis of
such magnitude is prone to divert public attention from
its ominous path by embarking upon foreign adventures.
This economist is ever mindful that debts do not fade or
pass away. Individuals must face them, deal with them,
or renege in bankruptcy. Governments have an additional
option: As the issuers of their own currencies, they may
inflate and depreciate their debts away. The United
States government has done this ever since it cast aside
the gold standard and imposed the dollar standard. It
undoubtedly will continue to do so as far as the eye can
see. It is an iniquitous road, which individuals would
soon be barred from travelling, but governments love to
take, shedding their debts one percent at a time. It is
a road of the dollar standard designed at Bretton Woods,
built by the US government, managed by the Federal
Reserve System, and financed largely by creditor central
banks in Europe and Asia. It is a road on which the fall
in dollar value has inflicted losses on all foreign
dollar holders, each in proportion to the amount of
dollars held. It is the political road of debt default
the magnitude of which amounts to trillions of dollars,
undoubtedly the largest in the history of international
relations. It will be remembered for generations to
come.
It is unlikely that the US Federal government and the
Federal Reserve will soon mend their ways, but it also
is doubtful that foreign creditors will continue their
support indefinitely. The US dollar is bound to continue
to depreciate and gradually surrender its role as the
world's primary reserve currency to a multiple reserve-
currency system resting on the euro, Japanese yen,
Chinese renminbi, and the American dollar. The multiple-
standard system is likely to perform more efficiently
and equitably than the dollar standard. Competition
would avoid the abuses and inequities of a monopolistic
system. Confining the powers of the Federal Reserve
System and constraining the deficit aptitude of the US
Treasury, it would ward off any further inundation of
the world with US dollars.
In idle reverie of years long past, this economist is
tempted to compare the gold standard with the dollar
standard. Throughout the long history of the gold
standard, the balance of payments of gold-producing
countries was usually "unfavourable." Since the birth of
the dollar standard, the United States has assumed the
position of the gold-producing countries; its balance of
payments usually is unfavourable. Much capital and
labour were spent to find, mine, refine, and market
gold; the United States bears minuscule expense in the
production of its money. Market forces limited the
quantity of gold coming to market; the quantity of
dollars depends on the judgment of Federal Reserve
governors who are appointed by the President. In times
of turmoil and war, the quantity of gold mined does
decline; in such times the stock of fiat dollars tends
to multiply and its value depreciates quickly.
The quantity of gold is limited by nature and its value
is enhanced by many non-monetary uses; fiat and
fiduciary moneys have no such uses or limitations. They
are the sorry creation of politics.
A hopeful sign, dear reader; that maybe the Anglo-lumpen
are finally coming to their senses.
Something remarkable happened towards the end of last
year: consumers cut back. In November, US consumer
credit dropped by more than it ever had dropped since
they began keeping the numbers 60 years ago. In
December, Britain's high street stores suffered their
slowest Christmas period for 10 years. In fact,
according to the head of the British Retail Consortium,
it was "the worst in living memory."
And now, the customers stumble. Each time credit was
offered a loan at below-market rates, what else could
the average man do but take it? Is it any wonder they're
now awash in it? The average middle-class American has
more debt than ever before. The average central banker
in Asia has more US dollar credits than ever
before...and more factories, too. And the whole world
economy - or at least two big pieces of it: US
consumption and Asian production - now depends on the
American consumer. He must somehow continue to
spend...or the whole thing falls apart.
That is why last week's news was so shocking. Never
before had US consumers held back so much - consumer
credit fell by $87 billion in just 4 weeks. "They're
just waiting for better deals at Christmas," said the
analysts. But Christmas came and went in America as it
did in Britain; not only were holiday sales less than
expected, the profit in them almost all disappeared
because of aggressive discounting. Not even selling
products at a loss was enough to keep the Anglo-
Americans buying.
Is this the beginning of something big? Or just a fluke?
We don't know yet...but we will know soon.
If it is the beginning of a consumer pullback, what will
the world-improvers at the Fed and the Bank of England
do about it this time?
THE DOLLAR'S DOUBTFUL FUTURE
by Hans Sennholz
If the love of money is the root of all evil, the
depreciation of money must be the mainspring of all
shams and frauds. It works silently and covertly,
impoverishing many...while it enriches a few...and
thereby inflicts great harm on social cooperation and
international relations.
A few economists are sounding the alarm about the
decline of the US dollar. In recent months, the world's
reserve currency fell visibly toward the euro and
Japanese yen and is likely to fall even lower. But most
Americans refuse to be alarmed, as they are unaware of
exchange rates and foreign exchange markets. Why should
they be troubled about the financial affairs of money
traders and dealers?
We may not be able to see the future, but we can always
learn from the past. Looking at the recent history of
the dollar, this economist perceives distinct stages
with various characteristics, causes, and consequences.
One stage was from the end of World War II to 1971, when
the US dollar was tied to a small anchor of gold.
President Nixon cut its ties and embarked on a wholly
new road of fiat dollar management. Many other countries
readily accepted the new system, acclaiming its
flexibility and manageability.
At this time, the world is still travelling this road,
but several countries are making preparations for
leaving it and proceeding toward a multiple standard
system. It is not clear whether they will depart in an
orderly fashion or in crisis and contention.
Throughout the decades, some economists were always
worried about the magnitude of the trade deficits and
the vulnerability of the American dollar. But their
fears proved to be unfounded because they underestimated
the worldwide demand for dollars and the willingness of
non-US investors and central bankers to trust and hold
US dollars. After all, until recently, the deficits
never exceeded three percent of American GDP, and
Americans still were net creditors in their foreign
accounts. By now, the dollar standard has reached a
stage in which not only a few economists, but also some
foreign creditors are beginning to question its future.
The Federal US government is swimming in an ocean of
debt. In its first term, the Bush administration
increased the Federal debt by $2.2 trillion. Congress
raised the Treasury debt ceiling three times, by $450
billion in 2002, by $984 billion in 2003, and by another
$800 billion on November 19, 2004, to $8 trillion 184
billion. The ready willingness of Congress to finance
such deficits is a clear indication of the political and
ideological mould and make of most members of Congress
and the public that elects them.
Foreign observers are drawing similar conclusions. The
Bank of Japan, with more than $800 billion in dollar
obligations, already announced its reluctance to
increase its holding. China, with dollar reserves
exceeding $500 billion, is labouring under
"unsustainable US trade deficits." Asian banks
altogether, holding more than $2 trillion in American
obligations are suffering hundred billion dollar losses
in terms of purchasing power. It is not surprising that
the central banks of India and Russia, as well as some
Middle East investors, have begun to sell dollar
obligations.
According to some estimates, foreign banks and investors
are holding some $9 trillion of US paper assets. They
own some 43 percent of US Treasuries, 25 percent of
American corporate bonds, and 12 percent of US corporate
equities. They obviously are suffering losses whenever
the dollar falls against their respective currencies;
even if they are pegged to the dollar, they are
incurring losses against all others that are rising.
The dollar standard surely would enter its final phase
of disintegration if its holders would panic and start
selling their American paper investments - their US
Treasuries, US agencies, and corporate bonds and shares.
The crash would be felt around the world and neither
foreign sellers, nor American authorities, could be
trusted to react rationally in the fear and noise of the
crash. The scene could be similar to the political
bedlam of the early 1930s.
There always is the hope that the primary creditors will
act in concert and once again bail out the debtor. The
European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of
China, and the Bank of England may decide to avert the
unthinkable and support the dollar by mopping up huge
quantities. The mopping would stabilise the situation
once again by inflating and depreciating their own
currencies; they would pass the depreciation losses on
to their own nationals. Optimists in our midst are
hoping for this scenario; they are convinced that the
Bush administration will, in time, save the situation by
balancing its budget and the Federal Reserve will allow
interest rates to seek market levels. Such a policy
would avert the dollar dilemma, although it would lead
to a painful recession, forcing all economic factors to
readjust to market conditions.
Pessimists in our midst cast doubt on such a scenario.
They point not only to the host of legislators and
regulators who cherish their position and power, but
also to public opinion and ideology, which call for
government favours. They are prepared to proceed on the
present road and brace for the morrow. A few cynics even
contend that a government facing a financial crisis of
such magnitude is prone to divert public attention from
its ominous path by embarking upon foreign adventures.
This economist is ever mindful that debts do not fade or
pass away. Individuals must face them, deal with them,
or renege in bankruptcy. Governments have an additional
option: As the issuers of their own currencies, they may
inflate and depreciate their debts away. The United
States government has done this ever since it cast aside
the gold standard and imposed the dollar standard. It
undoubtedly will continue to do so as far as the eye can
see. It is an iniquitous road, which individuals would
soon be barred from travelling, but governments love to
take, shedding their debts one percent at a time. It is
a road of the dollar standard designed at Bretton Woods,
built by the US government, managed by the Federal
Reserve System, and financed largely by creditor central
banks in Europe and Asia. It is a road on which the fall
in dollar value has inflicted losses on all foreign
dollar holders, each in proportion to the amount of
dollars held. It is the political road of debt default
the magnitude of which amounts to trillions of dollars,
undoubtedly the largest in the history of international
relations. It will be remembered for generations to
come.
It is unlikely that the US Federal government and the
Federal Reserve will soon mend their ways, but it also
is doubtful that foreign creditors will continue their
support indefinitely. The US dollar is bound to continue
to depreciate and gradually surrender its role as the
world's primary reserve currency to a multiple reserve-
currency system resting on the euro, Japanese yen,
Chinese renminbi, and the American dollar. The multiple-
standard system is likely to perform more efficiently
and equitably than the dollar standard. Competition
would avoid the abuses and inequities of a monopolistic
system. Confining the powers of the Federal Reserve
System and constraining the deficit aptitude of the US
Treasury, it would ward off any further inundation of
the world with US dollars.
In idle reverie of years long past, this economist is
tempted to compare the gold standard with the dollar
standard. Throughout the long history of the gold
standard, the balance of payments of gold-producing
countries was usually "unfavourable." Since the birth of
the dollar standard, the United States has assumed the
position of the gold-producing countries; its balance of
payments usually is unfavourable. Much capital and
labour were spent to find, mine, refine, and market
gold; the United States bears minuscule expense in the
production of its money. Market forces limited the
quantity of gold coming to market; the quantity of
dollars depends on the judgment of Federal Reserve
governors who are appointed by the President. In times
of turmoil and war, the quantity of gold mined does
decline; in such times the stock of fiat dollars tends
to multiply and its value depreciates quickly.
The quantity of gold is limited by nature and its value
is enhanced by many non-monetary uses; fiat and
fiduciary moneys have no such uses or limitations. They
are the sorry creation of politics.
mostrader
- 14 Jan 2005 06:38
- 2576 of 11056
nice chocco...
any usd chf folowrs
Price: 1.1725
Resistance: 1.1758 ... 1.1790 ... 1.1810 ... 1.1840
Support....: 1.1710 ... 1.1670 ... 1.1635 ... 1.1584
Bias: Slightly mixed - though with a mildly bearish preference while the 1.1758 resistance holds
Bullish: Break above 1.1712 has seen a move that is approaching the 1.1756-86 congestion resistance. Indeed, any bullish scenario reqires a break of this area with resistance identified this morning at 1.1758-60. Should this break we would then expect to see gains extend towards 1.1790-1.1810 which could stall progress though later we would expect to see a test at 1.1886-94.
Bearish: Break of 1.1712 has caused the recovery to bite deeper and is now approaching the key 1.1758-60 resistance. We feel there is a good chance that this will hold and cause an initial drift back lower to the 1.1700-10 area which could stall temporarily. A break at 1.1700 is required to accelerate losses down to 1.1666-74, then below 1.1625 and we feel a stronger move could see 1.1543 later today
any usd chf folowrs
Price: 1.1725
Resistance: 1.1758 ... 1.1790 ... 1.1810 ... 1.1840
Support....: 1.1710 ... 1.1670 ... 1.1635 ... 1.1584
Bias: Slightly mixed - though with a mildly bearish preference while the 1.1758 resistance holds
Bullish: Break above 1.1712 has seen a move that is approaching the 1.1756-86 congestion resistance. Indeed, any bullish scenario reqires a break of this area with resistance identified this morning at 1.1758-60. Should this break we would then expect to see gains extend towards 1.1790-1.1810 which could stall progress though later we would expect to see a test at 1.1886-94.
Bearish: Break of 1.1712 has caused the recovery to bite deeper and is now approaching the key 1.1758-60 resistance. We feel there is a good chance that this will hold and cause an initial drift back lower to the 1.1700-10 area which could stall temporarily. A break at 1.1700 is required to accelerate losses down to 1.1666-74, then below 1.1625 and we feel a stronger move could see 1.1543 later today
mostrader
- 14 Jan 2005 07:01
- 2577 of 11056
long cable @ 07
shrt chf @35
shrt chf @35
mostrader
- 14 Jan 2005 07:15
- 2578 of 11056
- cable @ 37
+ chf @ 09 :)
back later good luck
+ chf @ 09 :)
back later good luck
jeffmack
- 14 Jan 2005 12:08
- 2579 of 11056
WOOF WOOF Cable
mostrader
- 14 Jan 2005 16:40
- 2580 of 11056
one thing i think i should mention but keep forgetting,is on friday about 3.30 onwards..watch the major`s its when the hedge funds black boxes get working and they normally take a position that matches the move`s for the previous week...
eur usd cable both moved lower following wekkly trend
it happens every friday and they always move the way on the weekly trend
usd chf a hedge fav at 3pm 1.18 5pm ldn close 1.18 30
it happens every friday so be aware of it easy money...
eur usd cable both moved lower following wekkly trend
it happens every friday and they always move the way on the weekly trend
usd chf a hedge fav at 3pm 1.18 5pm ldn close 1.18 30
it happens every friday so be aware of it easy money...
Bobcolby
- 14 Jan 2005 17:28
- 2581 of 11056
Thanks mos,will make a note for future ref. Sounds like a useful piece of info
MightyMicro
- 14 Jan 2005 19:49
- 2582 of 11056
Hil: If you're around, the new MoneyAM/marketStream service launched today gives you mobile FX at your dainty little fingertips. Your mate Doris started a thread on it this morning . . .
hilary
- 14 Jan 2005 20:43
- 2583 of 11056
Is that the commode alternative that you showed me when I didn't meet you a year ago, D?
:o)
:o)
MightyMicro
- 14 Jan 2005 20:48
- 2584 of 11056
Hil: Indeed it is. It's pretty much exactly what you didn't see. :) D.
jeffmack
- 14 Jan 2005 21:22
- 2585 of 11056
Mos, good spot
jeffmack
- 16 Jan 2005 18:29
- 2586 of 11056
What time does FX start trading on D4F
chocolat
- 16 Jan 2005 19:00
- 2587 of 11056
It's 24 hrs jeffie
FX open at 11:00pm this evening
FX open at 11:00pm this evening
jeffmack
- 16 Jan 2005 19:39
- 2588 of 11056
Cheers choccie, it was this evenings open I was looking for
mostrader
- 16 Jan 2005 20:29
- 2589 of 11056
late night then jeff..
Seymour Clearly
- 16 Jan 2005 20:48
- 2590 of 11056
Chocolat, I didn't know that - I've been looking for something I can trade in the evening after the kids are in bed. Can anyone offer any pointers as to where to look for instruction in FX trading - I haven't a clue (much)!!
Edit, just looked at the header - lots of links - Doh!!!
Edit, just looked at the header - lots of links - Doh!!!
chocolat
- 16 Jan 2005 21:40
- 2591 of 11056
:) SC
For anyone else looking to trade FX markets: FX finishes at 10:00pm on a Friday. You can still trade FX 24/7 with most outfits (NOT finspreads, they finish at 21:15, opening at 7:00 Mon-Fri)
www.netdania.com is a good site to look at for streaming info.
For anyone else looking to trade FX markets: FX finishes at 10:00pm on a Friday. You can still trade FX 24/7 with most outfits (NOT finspreads, they finish at 21:15, opening at 7:00 Mon-Fri)
www.netdania.com is a good site to look at for streaming info.
Seymour Clearly
- 16 Jan 2005 22:10
- 2592 of 11056
Thanks Chocolat. Will watch and learn from you folks. Have to say this type of trading is probably a chartist's dream.
jeffmack
- 16 Jan 2005 22:48
- 2593 of 11056
Sunday, January 16, 2005 20:23 GMT
Daily Report
By Forex Grand Capitals
http://www.ForexGrandCapitals.com
The Nazca Lines
As per the weekly base charts, the USD stays bullish across the board, as the JPY crosses do bearish.
Major currencies could not end up this week positively against the USD in the wake of trend reversal signs I particularly flagged first time on January 3rd, and reinforced last Sunday: "shooting star" (EUR/USD: bearish), "triangle" (GBP/USD: bearish), "bear trap" (USD/CHF: bullish) - all of these as encountered on the corresponding 1-week charts. But in fact, even some 1-month charts bring now some important signals, like the staying-bearish one on GBP/USD.
EUR/USD has been the forex pair where a major sell-off of impressive magnitude (in historical terms) - not really expected by most participants - took place during last week. During the current week yet the JPY crosses were the perfect victims. The sell-off seen on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY has been fantastic with no sign of relief seen as of yet - while, falling under 78.50 AUD/JPY has just confirmed a spectacular formation as seen on the 1-week chart, consisting of two subsequent "head&shoulders" patterns.
We may have an important bearish reversal in progress on EUR/JPY - where on the same 1-week chart, an apparently "no-brainer" northward breakout had been seen in this timeframe not a long time ago out of a grand "symmetrical triangle". Several days behind I said the "bear trap" recently occured on USD/CHF ready to induce further bullish pressures on the pair (1-week chart) looked pretty much like the same pattern I saw in mid August last year on the Dow Jones (1-day chart). Well - on EUR/JPY right now (1-week chart) we have an almost identical situation in even the greatest details with what has happened recently on the Nasdaq 100 shares (QQQQ) on its 1-day chart, where a major breakdown has been receiving an extended follow-thru to the south up to date. Remains to be seen whether this resemblance will hold as well, even though I don"t believe history repeats unconditionally.
Sure it"s possible for corrective rebounds take place in shorter timeframes, and even the above mentioned are lines destined to show off what"s the dominant pressure to be considered by the strategic player. Remains to be seen whether we are currently dealing with impressive long-term trend reversals on the USD and JPY crosses, or merely a corrective period.
Especially on the USD across the board - as feared last Sunday - it is possible that a mid-term horizon of sideways, consolidative movement overall further take place - which is, quite spectacular intraday yet rather boring once timeframes are enlarged - before the next huge action should burst out.
Daily Report
By Forex Grand Capitals
http://www.ForexGrandCapitals.com
The Nazca Lines
As per the weekly base charts, the USD stays bullish across the board, as the JPY crosses do bearish.
Major currencies could not end up this week positively against the USD in the wake of trend reversal signs I particularly flagged first time on January 3rd, and reinforced last Sunday: "shooting star" (EUR/USD: bearish), "triangle" (GBP/USD: bearish), "bear trap" (USD/CHF: bullish) - all of these as encountered on the corresponding 1-week charts. But in fact, even some 1-month charts bring now some important signals, like the staying-bearish one on GBP/USD.
EUR/USD has been the forex pair where a major sell-off of impressive magnitude (in historical terms) - not really expected by most participants - took place during last week. During the current week yet the JPY crosses were the perfect victims. The sell-off seen on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY has been fantastic with no sign of relief seen as of yet - while, falling under 78.50 AUD/JPY has just confirmed a spectacular formation as seen on the 1-week chart, consisting of two subsequent "head&shoulders" patterns.
We may have an important bearish reversal in progress on EUR/JPY - where on the same 1-week chart, an apparently "no-brainer" northward breakout had been seen in this timeframe not a long time ago out of a grand "symmetrical triangle". Several days behind I said the "bear trap" recently occured on USD/CHF ready to induce further bullish pressures on the pair (1-week chart) looked pretty much like the same pattern I saw in mid August last year on the Dow Jones (1-day chart). Well - on EUR/JPY right now (1-week chart) we have an almost identical situation in even the greatest details with what has happened recently on the Nasdaq 100 shares (QQQQ) on its 1-day chart, where a major breakdown has been receiving an extended follow-thru to the south up to date. Remains to be seen whether this resemblance will hold as well, even though I don"t believe history repeats unconditionally.
Sure it"s possible for corrective rebounds take place in shorter timeframes, and even the above mentioned are lines destined to show off what"s the dominant pressure to be considered by the strategic player. Remains to be seen whether we are currently dealing with impressive long-term trend reversals on the USD and JPY crosses, or merely a corrective period.
Especially on the USD across the board - as feared last Sunday - it is possible that a mid-term horizon of sideways, consolidative movement overall further take place - which is, quite spectacular intraday yet rather boring once timeframes are enlarged - before the next huge action should burst out.
chocolat
- 16 Jan 2005 22:55
- 2594 of 11056
Something else to bear in mind, SC (and any other venturers) is that the likes of the netdania site chart the cash (spot) market. I use a different package for futures, which, frankly, is more rewarding. It stores historical data, with 1 minute and tick data backfills, meaning that you don't have to be permanently connected for reliable information. The downside is that it is designed for traders who are using an Interactive Brokers account. IB provides actual quotes without any backfill. Although IB also permits you to store these quotes on your hard drive, the site I use is a more cost-effective hosting service. The good news is that they are currently developing a package that can be used independently of a broker. So if anyone is interested, mail me and I'll keep you posted.
By the way, the futures charting package mentioned above is not just for FX instruments.
By the way, the futures charting package mentioned above is not just for FX instruments.
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