Is this a monster in the making?

Does anyone have this on their radar? What do you make of it, IPO sp at 540p Dec 2007, now 1123p. Am I too late to get in? I think sp is playing catch up with other major miners. Kaz already own 20% of the company.

http://www.enrc.com/index.asp
Check out the presentation there are some impressive numbers and their huge assests.

Goldfinger, your ratings are out-dated

ENRC downgraded to hold from buy TODAY at RBS.

Shorted ENRC at 643p.

Broker note from RBS:
"We raise our target price to 11/share; upgrade to Buy.
We continue to value ENRC at its NPV plus a 20% premium, resulting in an NPV-based valuation of 9.56/share. However, we have also incorporated a 2011F PE-based element to our valuation, to incorporate shorter-term earnings leverage. At 12x our 2011 EPS forecast, we can see ENRC trading as high as 13.60/share in 12-18 months time. We set our target price at 11/share (up 29%), and upgrade the stock to a Buy rating"

Good news alround, buy rating from UBS and output up, hopefully sp will rise and put me back in profit......

Mining giant Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC) said production volumes in the three month ended 31 December further improved on the levels of the previous quarter, in line with expectations.

Ferrochrome production increased 56.7% compared to last year and 5.7% from the previous quarter. Output increased to 351,000 tonnes during the period from 224,000 tonnes last year.

Iron ore extraction was up 74.1% year-on-year, while saleable ore jumped 79.5%.

The strength of its businesses and their low cost advantage allowed the group to achieve a strong recovery from the downturn at the end of 2008, said chief executive Felix Vulis.

Going forward, we remain focussed on managing production levels in response to market demand, Vulis added.

16:42, Monday 12 December 2011

LONDON (ShareCast) - Kazakhstan-focused miner, Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC), is said to be examining allegations of corruption at a Kazakh iron ore subsidiary but denied on Sunday that it was the subject of a formal investigation by Britain's Serious Fraud Office (SFO), Reuters reports. ENRC has had a troubled year in the board room following the removal of two city stalwarts from the management team. Sir Richard Sykes and Ken Olisa left after criticising interference from ENRC's owners, who include the Kazakh-Israeli billionaire Alexander Mashkevitch. ENRC is one of a growing number of FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) commodity companies from the former Soviet Union, leading to the oft-expressed opinion that Britain's leading equity benchmark is no longer British

Nomura has slashed its forecasts for Eurasian Natural Resources Corp (ENRC) and says that the stock is undeservedly trading at a premium to its peers.

The broker claims that ENRC's international expansion strategy has faced "significant challenges" over the last two years, even though it has spend nearly $4bn on acquisitions outside Kazakhstan since 2008.

"These headwinds have been exacerbated by the recent delays at the BMSA iron ore project in Brazil and the lack of progress around the licences for the Kolwezi and Frontier copper projects in the DRC. These challenges leave ENRC’s organic growth platform with higher risks than those of its diversified peers," Nomura said.

The target price is cut from 750p to 700p and near-term earnings estimates are reduced by around 20% to reflect further operating expenditure inflation at ENRC's Kazakhstan operations and project delays. A reduce recommendation is maintained.

Eurasian Natural Resources is another Kazakh natural-resources group that makes most of its money from mining -- mostly ferrochrome, iron ore and alumina.

Like a number of other Russian and Central Asian businesses that have joined the FTSE 100 in recent years, ENRC has a very small 'free float'. Five major Kazakh shareholders control 73% of the shares, including an 11% stake held by the Kazakh government and a 26% stake held by fellow FTSE 100 member Kazakhmys.

Corporate governance concerns have made ENRC relatively unattractive to UK investors, and although it has now appointed more independent directors as part of a corporate governance review, I am still not keen.

ING summary note:
"ENRC’s rapidly escalating debt burden is now the key concern for investors and we expect the stock to continue its underperformance while this remains the case. We see the deferral of ENRC’s most capex intensive projects as inevitable but in the absence of a meaningful recovery in spot prices for ferrochrome and iron ore we still expect net debt/EBITDA to exceed 2x within six months. We believe ENRC may eventually need to consider selling some of its more attractive assets (e.g. African copper) or raise capital via new equity.
We downgrade our target price for ENRC to 325p (previously 430p) and retain our SELL recommendation."

Barclays comment today:
"The founding shareholders of ENRC (collectively owning 43.77%) and the Kazakh government (11.65%) are “reviewing a number of potential opportunities which include the possibility of forming a consortium to make an offer for ENRC.” This offer would be for Kazakhmys’ stake (26.0%) and the listed minority (18.58%). Under UK listing rules any offer would be a Class 1 transaction and subject to shareholder vote by the minority shareholders. Therefore any offer would need to be acceptable to Kazakhmys both due to its blocking stake in any vote. Kazakhmys’ weighted average entry price into ENRC is 575p. However, we note the stake has been for sale for a number of years therefore the opportunity to liquidate below entry may have attractions.
The success of any bid then would depend on the ability of the consortium to raise sufficient financing to buy out 44.58% of ENRC at a price acceptable to Kazakhmys. At 575p that would equate to $5.1bn. We note Societe Generale is advising the consortium. The consortium has until 5pm on 17 May to respond. Potential counter offerors for the stake are out there but we regard any intervention in a competitive situation as relatively unlikely. As for Kazakhmys, an all-cash takeout of their stake in ENRC would alleviate any balance sheet issues for the company (cash proceeds of $2.96bn at 575p, reducing peak ND/EBITDA to 3.1x from 6.4x) and result in a re-rating – hence the 24% move in the share price recently. The advantage to the consortium of the deal would be that it allows them to break the company up much more easily and potentially sell the assets on piecemeal. It obviously avoids having to conform to the FTSE indexation regulations requiring them to issue or sell at least 7% of the stock this year and reduce regulatory hurdles in general. We would also note the bigger picture implications. Towards the end of super cycles there tend to be privatizations, M&A and bankruptcies. In the case of FSU based companies, they are facing the unprecedented situation of being owned by Western institutional shareholders in a declining commodity price environment when previously Moscow provided funding."

Harry, in words that a thicko can understand, what would the likely outcome mean to a share holder like me if the above were to happen.,. please.

My understanding is that the consortium would take ENRC into private hands and they would pay you cash for your shares. The Kaz owned portion of ENRC was bought at approx 575p, so the theory is that they would want that price to sell their stake. But it seems unlikely they will get that as they have been trying to sell for a couple of years, with no takers. So, you would get cash, no share offer, but no one is sure how much you would get per share.....yet. Has to be 'put up, or shut up' by end of play 17th May 2013.

why would the offer be even as high as 575? ..... i don't know when the kaz boys were bought out, but i'ld guess the game has changed since then with sp now only about 300

The Kaz boys haven't yet been bought out. They are a 26% stakeholder. Agreed they would probably not get 575p for their shares, as they have not been offered that up to now. But, don't forget these guys are russians. I'll say no more!

Thanks harry.

i don't think you'll win many friends in the region describing kaz boys as russian, any more than you would in ukraine :-)

Very nice rise this a.m. well in profit at last.,.

Bidco takeover offer of 234.3 p