18p. 29 apr 9.7p

From Motley Fool.....



Published in Company Comment on 30 July 2009

This former turkey has ten-bagged since Christmas.

One of the biggest movers on Thursday was UNIQ (LSE: UNIQ), maker of snacks, salads, sauces and deserts. Increased losses at the company prompted a 20% drop in the share price at the start of the day, although half of this ground was re-gained as trading progressed.

This fall from 36p to 29p will have little impact on stoic shareholders, who have seen the price collapse from over 250p two years ago to a mere 2.4p last December, securing the company a not-so-coveted place in the 99% Club.

Pension problems

So what went wrong? Unlike many of the horror stories over the past couple of years, debt was not a problem -- the main concern at UNIQ was, and is, the pension deficit. Spawned from the giant Unigate dairy operation, the company's pension fund covers 21,000 member, while the business now employs less than a third of that number.

On this morning's figures, the group pension deficit increased from 170.9m to 215.7m (on an IAS 19 basis) over the past six months, which is roughly equivalent to six times last years gross profit.

Competition

And it's a competitive business, as the company is up against rivals such as Northern Foods (LSE: NFDS) and Iceland's Bakkavor. Selling into strong customers like Tesco (LSE: TSCO), Sainsbury (LSE: SBRY) and Marks & Spencer (LSE: MKS) can't really be fun at the moment either.

While people stubbornly continue to eat, they're cutting back on supermarket sandwiches and other discretionary spending.

The plan

But the company has a plan: It's selling off non-core businesses, particularly in its Northern European territories of France, Germany, and Poland, and slimming down to focus on the British market. This will free up cash to plug the hole in the pension fund, and let the company get on with the business of making money.

Losses in UK were lower than previously, and as part of the slimming process the French business is being sold for 73m, pending approval by the shareholders in a couple of weeks.

Would you buy it?

Putting a value on this business is a huge challenge. The market hasn't been able to do it with any consistency, when we consider the 99% fall in share prices, followed by a fifteen-fold increase since Christmas.

It involves not just taking a view on public's appetite for prepared foods, but also on the value of UNIQ's assets in the current market, and on future fluctuations in the value of that pension fund. It may still be amazing value, but that's too many variables for me, so in Dragons' Den terms, I'm out.

The sums were just as hard back in the December, when an intrepid denizen of our discussion boards bought a chunk of the business close to the bottom, and doubtless has done rather well out of it.

At the time, the company was valued at just 3.5m, with sales approaching 800m, so on a price-to-sales ratio (PSR) alone it was pretty extreme value, but the possibility of the company collapsing entirely was very real. On that occasion at least, fortune favoured the brave.

Numis Securities
31st July 2009
UNIQ
Retain Price Buy Target - 56p

Mid price finished at 30.125p today - Sale of North Eastern European businesses pending ? IMHO

Goldfinger/fast investor and all other aliases

How's the short? LOL
Was it around 25p you were calling this short?

Do the mam investors not realise how you are regarded as a joke on the other side?

Buy now at 36.5p !

gf
z's post is in my opinion to be taken with a pinch of salt, which i see you have done. i, and most likely all others on here make our own minds up. personally i find your posts most informative and welcome. i've done my own research and followed you into several, although not all. so thanks!
regards
jkd

Just go direct to the source and cut out the lapdog - CR thread

z
i have no idea what you are talking about! maybe i'm just too daft to understand.
whats CR thread? please advise, thank you.
regards
jkd

Wouldnt bother with him jkd.

This came to light this weekend.

Only showed up late friday and too late for the UK B/Boards to react to the news.

Obviously the Broker fed the analysis to their clients before release for general market observation. Now we know why the SP as fallen for the last 3 days.

FinnCap
12-08-09 SELL -12.90 -14.20 1.90 -0.30

So they are predicting 1.9 million pre tax and negative EPS of -0.30 for 2010.

With a SELL recommendation and more importantly this is post results and assets sale news............. not very bullish it would seem.

Mind dont know how they get negative earnings i thought Uniq had tax losses to offset.

uniq on the up - now buy at 34.8p -sale of eastern european markets pending or uplift from cadburys offer ? imho.

SOLDOUT TODAY.

Sell recommendations? LOLS.

Does anybody know how to add the PLUS tickers to the stockwatch on moneyam?
Thanks

Uniq now 45p - somthings up - deal pending re norh eastern european companies for sale ? imho

Very likely - they did say in late June that the: "Process for the disposal of the northern European businesses is proceeding in line with plan."

Uniq - now buy 46p - sales of NE European businesses pending ? Is it about to take off ? IMHO

Why should it al, the companys going to use all the money they get from sales to pay off some of the pension deficit they have....... and still be left searching for more funds for the rest of the deficit.

The companys way overvalued at 46p already.

Nearly doubled since someone suggested shorting it due to pension deficits, broker notes......LOL

Yes foolish gullible inexperienced investors who have been duped by a group of die hard cheats across the road have helped the SP rise.

Pity they have got caught up in this exercise where I post a quote from the ring leader from late spring.... " i will certainly be very suprised ----y if this stock isnt at least 120p by the end of september".

Wont see these guys for dust when the RNS comes out showing the sales of the North Euro business and the fact that near damm it all proceeds are going to pay for the pension deficit.

Check the situation out, theirs one big probability that the companys massive pension liability cant be erased other than using the euro sales revenue.

From another angle....

On the analysts figure who is the only one with a buy rating the stock is trading on a forward P/E of 18 to 2010.

A butty maker and wholesaler on a bloated P/E of 18...... pull the other one.

Got a right tonking today, wouldnt bet against the same early next week either.

Hyped up stock.