SEE LATEST CHOICE IN LATEST POST

There are existing threads specific to betting short or long on indices.
On this one I plan to stick to individual UK stocks, and will post other examples of favourite fallers.
My downbets are sometimes just an hour or so, sometimes days, weeks, months. So bear in mind(!) that some of the charts shown may become irrelevant within days.
I mainly use IG Index, but also Spreadex

SEE LATEST CHOICE IN LATEST POST

Yesterday's statement about CPP Group (CPP) being dumped by Barclaycard, included this - which suggests we can perhaps expect a profits warning when Results are published on March 2nd:

"...The FSA investigation into certain issues surrounding the sale of the Group's Card Protection and Identity Protection products in the UK, and the suspension of Identity Protection sales in the Group's UK voice channels, both of which were announced in March 2011, are continuing to have a material impact on the Group's ability to sell its full range of products in the UK. The duration and outcome of the FSA investigation continues to be uncertain..."

(The share price crashed 50% last March when the investigation began. The uncertainty, and risk of a very big fine, must surely have cost millions in lost business this year?)

What an awful chart.

Looks even worse after today :-O

I've been out all day and left a downbet in place. Got back home to find the 105p level it paused at gave way.

Essar (ESSR) share price fell 70% during 2011, and is already down by half that in less than two months this year. Debts of £4.6bn(!).

I trade it from time to time. Usually a nice tight bid/offer spread.

CPP suspension lifted this morning.


Results, not unexpectedly, include a profits warning and indications of ongoing inability to determine full impact of the FSA ruling already made and additional rulings which may yet follow:



"...Going forward, the Group's UK business will undergo a period of significant adjustment as a result of the impact of the FSA investigation. Lower retail new assistance income in 2011 will lead to a significant reduction in profitable renewal revenue in 2012. There may be some adverse impact on renewal rates from changes to the renewals process for Card Protection and Identity Protection in the UK. The planned closure of the call to confirm channel in the UK will adversely impact new assistance income and revenue and profit growth in 2012 and beyond, unless replaced by revenue from alternative channels..."

"......A provision of GBP14.8 million has been made in the 2011 results for the various initiatives agreed with the FSA, however there remain risks associated with the level of redress to be paid. Furthermore, it currently remains unclear what steps the FSA may wish to take, if any, and against whom in relation to UK sales of the CPP's Card Protection and Identity Protection products that are not within the scope of the Group's Past Business Review, or in respect of any similar products available to the market from other providers. There can be no guarantee that the FSA will not seek to take action on a wider industry basis. Until such time as the FSA makes a determination on these issues, and the repercussions are understood for the industry as a whole, the Group is unable to assess the potential impact on its Business Partners, or the Group's relationship with them, including any financial consequences..... "



"...It currently remains unclear what steps the FSA may wish to take, if any, and against whom in relation to UK sales of CPP's Card Protection and Identity Protection products that are not within the scope of the Group's Past Business Review, or in respect of any similar products available to the market from other providers. There can be no guarantee that the FSA will not seek to take action on a wider industry basis.

The agreement with the FSA does not mark the end of the FSA investigation which is continuing....."

juzzle - hope you were already short of CPP per your flag in mid feb .... if so, you must be feeling very cheery indeed

Yes thanks ;o)

will you continue to run it? ...... looks to be rather illiquid, so any squeeze could be quite painful

Not for the moment. I banked a substantial four-figure gain and don't want to push my luck by being greedy for more. I do think its prospects over the coming year or so are bad, so I certainly wouldn't be a buyer into any recovery.

Well done MT!

Further to posts 26 and 30, CPP Group (CPP) have this morning issued another profit warning:


"...We anticipate that trading will continue to be difficult in the UK which will undergo a period of significant adjustment as a result of the impact of the FSA investigation, and we continue to work to address, where possible, the concerns of Business Partners during this period of uncertainty. Renewal rates are expected to be adversely impacted by changes to renewal packs and publicity surrounding the Group. The call-to-confirm channel has now been closed in the UK and as a result there are currently no sales of Card Protection or Identity Protection in the UK through CPP channels. These factors combined will, as previously announced, adversely impact revenue and profit growth in 2012 and beyond until replaced by revenue from alternative channels..."

Face book is looking more and more like a good short

If you watched the programe the other night on Facebook it was interesting ,their valuation looks crazy ,it will be the founders and people in at the beginning who make the killing , DotCom bubble springs to mind.

A long time since I visited this thread!

My current downbets include:

DX Group (DX.)
ChinaTek (CTEK)
Saga (SAGA)

Juzzle this is a good thread ,i wish others would post here ,GF where are you it's a shorting thread !..

bit late but
QPP
ASC
Dow

Increased my downbet on Applied Graphene materials (AGM). I am a fan of graphene - and this company may well end up as one of the winners in this new field. But lots of companies all over the world are scrambling to grab a piece of the action, and I don't think we will know until next year if AGM has a profitable part to play.

NOTE: IG Index don't accept downbets online on this stock (they might by phone), but Spreadex do.

I'd forgotten about this thread Juzzle - does this mean that you are expecting a general sell off?

minute volumes

skinny -- I too had forgotten this thread!

I do most of my trading in the cooler darker days of the year, Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb, when I can justify being indoors instead of outdoors. So am currently revving up my market involvement, which includes upbets and downbets. I don't have a specific view of whether markets as a whole are heading up or down - but some of my downbets have been moving more briskly this past week or so.