I have just come across this absolute gem. I don't normally get this excited, but must share it with others. Cobra is the name, listed on Aim and a market cap of 30 million. Just been awarded a US patent for a system that allows people to take previously injected drugs in tablet form. Already profitable was floated off from MLB last year (and given their fundraising today they may regret ever letting this one go).
Collins Stewart are predicting 1.8 million this year and 3.1 million next year, though i can see those numbers being left behind. The company is both exciting and defensive because some of the products that can be taken are against cancer, anthrax and other potentially fatal diseases. (Hoping of course there will never be another terrorist outrage but even then this stock would be one to have onside.) Turnover has doubled in the last twelve months and the potential really is amazing. Biotechs not usually my style but this one is already profitable and i just have to have some in my portfolio.

Leaving all other things aside this is a Bio-tech that is producing product in several areas. I think it was a part of ML Labs and some have suggested they should not have sold this business. The reduction in shareholding by Britannic is hardly a source of panic, having increased their holding some months ago to 6%+ their new holding is only just under 5% hardly likely to create an overhang or did the MM's panic?
Today, a Director bought 20,000 shares - OK not really newsworthy amount but it shows something. Hardly panic selling and I note the price is up 5%.
I class this small Bio along with Protherics (ie actually selling their stuff) - the fall-back in [CBF] US operation is unfortunate and has prompted this crisis IMHO - but many companies have dissapointments. I just don't think the Market read the earlier RNS since there is nothing "new" - that's my take.
I have bought at 29p so with spread I still not in profit, but hey it's only the first day.
I didn't understand "why" you thought it was a sell, was it the "warning" that alarmed you? The share-price had increased quite a bit, so maybe it was a tad overvalued. Now, though the NAV is 54p and the cash per share is above the Market price; can this be so bad right now?
I think it's been oversold but there is still a risk some other news is yet to be flushed out. However with such a fall it looks safe to me - I hope so.

You're right I read only the first page of comments - from Jan04 so this seemed reasonable to me.

Thank you for such an intelligent and cogent reply hangon, would someone else.......

I thought it a sell at 120p after the warning, which talked of break even. And then the loss came in at 1.8 million which did nothing for my confidence! Institutions are awfully slow to forgive and I feel management have let down investors badly. Trust is a key factor in share price performance and right now Cobra (rather like Raft) faces a big uphill struggle to win that back. Talk of sorting things out seems vague and that worries me from this managment! It'll be ok in 2005 all seems as i say vague.

All that said; you are spot on. A Director has bought. The nav is over 50p including a healthy cash position (but they cannot afford to continue burning it like they have done). And most likelable are some of the patents especially the syringe free ones.

There is hope therefore, and hence my interest (not financial) continues at these levels, but i would not buy back until i see some real evidence through at least one, preferably two, of the following: newsflow, numbers or management changes, of a turnaround.

Thanks, Hawick. You may be right yet about management, but I think there is a clear distinction between management that is after share-price growth (by newsflow) and those that are growing a sensible business.
Leaving Options aside, the salaries these Directors receive is not massive. Indeed considering the "cash" position and sales/turnover, they are modest. There are plenty of other AIM stocks that could learn from these people - don't kill the Goose until it's well laying!
AS far as the News is concerned I'm of the opinion they expected the US sales to increase as they had earlier, maybe not being "close-enough" to their customers to realise purchases would fluctuate. The Management is probably focused on "Bio" - rather than "Sales" - for which they may need to recruit someone that is already close to their target market and living there.
When a Company is experienced in one area (Bio) it doesn't give them enough skill in pandering to the Market/Brokers/City/Investors....we each see things differently. Way back in Feb they told the Market about the fall-off - and whilst your interpretation was spot-on I wonder if that was about the Market "perception" (in these troubled times) rather than a real fall in the Company fundamentals?
The Q in my mind should be to those who were buying the Stock in Dec03/Jan04 (incl the New Director), when the price was 1.30 level - were they buying the Company, or a slice of anticipated profit. ( maybe a bit of both)
Now with one sector of their business lower, and some effect on profit, is the current price all the business is worth? ( Let's assume there is "no" profit this year!).
I think this will concentrate Management into see that they have two businesses:
1) The development of Bio products, research etc and
2)Developing repeat Sales and being cosy with the customer needs (this is not done easily)
It may take a year or two, but by then the business will be Motoring IMHO and cbf should have a potential TO or at least a well-oiled source of dividend.
They have only been in existance a short while and are showing good signs of flowering - many other AIM stocks are all promises with little rootstock and Directors bleeding the thing dry.
I hope that CBF will be one to stay the course, so that Directors and staff will collect their well-earned Pensions.

I'm sorry you are holding-off for now, since this knock may cause a retraction of the shareprice for some while. Indeed it is rare for a small company to recover more that 50% of the drop - so roughly 60p ( put 20p spread on this ) - but then some of their products are closely aligned with the World News and this may be a substantial revenue-stream: Management should not rely on this, but should seek to broaden their customer-base. The News (tues),about African Debt and Aids could be a substantial boost to companies active in this treatment. Where else can you buy a slice of this action for 30p, by a Company that seems to be honest and frugal?
By way of a caution it would be nice to hear any statement from the Company.
Regards

What is Ian Taylor complaining about? hawick's post read OK to me/
/
Further thoughts: Cobra BioManufacturing
Looking at the sharegraph I notice that there is a trend down (towards?) 1 from an earlier high (presumably the post-launch good-time) - If we ignore the hump centred arround DEC03 - which was a long-term blip IMHO since it was being fueled by the expectation of huge sales which had already started.
In Feb04 reality took over and the price ignored this hump (which was now all dashed hope)- to settle at 60p -ish. When the May04 figures came out the Market had been hoping Management would say - "...it's all OK chaps, profits are rolling..."
Yet in reality the Hump was a temporary illusion, gone in a flash like the sales, and what the company is doing now is to develop their other strengths - something perhaps they should have done from day1 - but when you are selling good stuf to a customer it is hard to divert your attention to a small prospect - no-one will thank you if the big order is lost.
The jury is out on this one, although I for one am hoping - but they have a new facility in Oxford (it was the old British Bio plant I understand), so there is a chance that the recent Rights Issue (at 80p ouch!)...is being used to build capacity for the future. That can't be a bad thing - just have to wait a little longer for those profits....now when punters sent off their cheques for shares at 80p were they thinking these shares are bound to go higher? Of course they did - so why not top-up with say 20% of whatever you paid and buy another 60% of the new issue.
Suppose you bought 1000 shares at the rights issue (=800) then 20% is 160 = say 533 ignoring charges. So for 1Grand you have 1533 shares - that's about 65pence each - not a bad discount to the 80p you thought was good value.
.The sooner you buy them the better, for others may spot this logical bargain.... of course, if you now think Management is incompetant..... but I think they are telling it as it is. With little experience at giving Bad News, it's not surprising they have ruffled the market.....now they need to slowly build on their strengths and get their other technologies to the Customers' attention.
I note that rival Investors Chronicle said SELL ( having been a bit bullish only recently) whereas I think Shares said Hold; I can't see the logic in selling now the price is so low - that advice might have been sound at 60p, but now the Market has over-reacted IMHO, so selling will only crystalise a loss that (should) be reversed in the comming months. The shares are up from last week after some small purchases from Directors - in total 27k - but considering these Directors are not paid much (good?) they are at least showing some signs of confidence....the shares are likely to drift up over the comming months again IMHO. It may be a long wait as the Market is obviously not amused.

these are too cheap now. Another director buy yesterday,(they must know the figures 3 months to June & the orders for the next three months) plus this news from their website yesterday which didn't seem to make an RNS.

28 June 2004

Cobra Biomanufacturing signs agreement to manufacture Coleys Toxin

Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and the Cancer Research Institute to develop cancer vaccine

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc, the International manufacturer of biopharmaceuticals, announced an agreement between the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and its collaborator the Cancer Research Institute to produce Coleys Toxin cancer vaccine for clinical trials.

Cancer vaccines direct the immune system to eliminate tumours and are re-emerging as candidates for cancer therapy. Cobra will produce Coleys Toxin from two different bacteria under controlled conditions. A modern and regulatory compliant manufacturing process for the vaccine has been developed, and state of the art monitoring will be utilized to assess the vaccines immunological efficacy. The entire project is scheduled to take 6 months.

David Thatcher, Chief Executive of Cobra Biomanufacturing, commented:

We are delighted that the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and its collaborator the Cancer Research Institute, have chosen Cobra as its manufacturing partner. Both Institutes have a strong international scientific reputation and are at the forefront of developing improved cancer therapies.

Dr Gerd Ritter, Associate Director of the Ludwig Institutes Office of Clinical Trials Management commented:

"Cobra has an impressive track record in the safe and effective manufacture of diverse biologicals. We were impressed by the Cobra teams innovative approaches for the manufacture of this challenging microbial cancer vaccine, and as an academic organization we liked its partnership style of working. We look forward to a successful collaboration."

- ENDS -

Director buying of late has been disapointing. This most-recent is barely into four figures....a real statement with ca 50k+ is what I'm looking for. "Sell the kids + car etc. slap it on the Company".
Interesting RNS, so thanks Thirdeye for drawing attention to it, seems they can deal with the day to day stuff as one would hope. I am a holder of this stock.

Hi hangon sorry I didn't get back to you. Good post. It is still an investment psychology thing, for me. They gave a warning, said they'd break even and lost 1.8 million. The cashburn is a concern and i can't see institutions giving this a look again until management prove themselves to the City.

As you say they seem able to handle the day to day business but that is a small start to a very long repair job. It is on my watchlist but I'd hate to jump in too early and then see they have still not got a grip at the next results, because then the price could go through the floor, even from here another 50%.

Better managements elsewhere more worthy of support imho, for now. Could see these break below 20p in next few months, then if next results indicate a recovery I might be interested again. Good luck though, promising products and patents, some cash.

Be nice if some posters checked their facts to see how much they actually did lose second half, no wonder they sold :-)


Hangon, CBF expect a meaningful improvement in the second half, so that would have to result in a profit if it materialises.

Furthermore I look at CBF like this, some were attracted with a 30m valuation, now you can buy your share for pro-rata circa 5m, what have you lost for saving circa 25m?

Well, 1.2m loss, & a big downturn in the DNA section. However there are three other sectors in this infant business which are still growing strongly.


On a risk reward basis, it's speculative, but a pretty good gamble in my opinion.



Also you can buy at mid price, market makers are looking for business in these quiet times so, negotiation should take place & the spread shouldn't put anyone off, only for those who have done their own research though.




To summarise a 25m saving (at one sixth of the price it was) in paying for the company in an exciting infant industry, appears a fair speculation to me.

Or put another way: .....stripping cash out at least at March interims using today's market cap of circa 5m, the business is valued at 1.2m ( circa)


So for a business that was valued at say 25m (excluding cash) is now valued at 1/20th @ circa 1.2m.

Falling back again, failing to hold recent lows. No worthwhile support from institutional backers, loss of faith in management.

I hope for all investors the next results can start the repair job. But mms must be stuck with a mountain of unwanted stock. Worth waiting to get these at still significantly lower level, if the institutions eventually return.

Sorry hangon to be so down on this one, but it looks a long road ahead. I really do hope to get back in again at some point. Up to management to prove themselves first, at least for me.

I Agree the institutions may be holding back; but with the slipping price Directors today (Wed.7July04) have been pretty active. With earlier Dir. buys this shows support at least for the cash (24p rumoured) and the Co. future.
My buy-price is now just under today's spread. Yipee - er, soon. The company has announced some deals and I'm still hoping there will be more to follow....it would be foolish to think they are not aware of the damage the loss of a large chunk of business has on sentiment. I guess most punters expected a rabbit to be pulled from the hat... it wasn't.
Sadly in the real World, sales are the result of long negotiations and cosy-ing with the customer. Only Blue-Sky companies can see sales reaching telephone numbers year-on-year and like Mugs we believe figures "plucked from the wind".
Cobra is, IMHO a worthwhile producer of real products. Their (recent)additional capacity is in-part testament to that. Regards

I read that the Directors have lathered themselves with Options - pity they don't have time to steer the Company at this critical time ( ie since about the beginning of 2004), with many having supported them close to 1, these creatures have set the Option price below 1/3rd of this - must make the City look pretty stupid - let's hope they are forgiven in the next couple of years.

Isn't it about time Options were outlawed, unless the suggestion is "from the floor" at an agm when a well-loved director is retiring on low-pay?
Grr!

Ok, you have talked me into it. Bought a few today.

Shares Mag wrote this article last year. They were evidently too optimistic at that time, but how much has really changed. That last RNS said their forward order book had doubled, so where do we go from here? Maybe SM will follow up on last years arcticle. Interesting times ahead.


Shares Magazine-Plays of the Week 5/6/03
Cobra Bio-Manufacturing (AIM:CBF) - 98p Buy by: Timon Day Investors looking for plays on vaccines for AIDS and other virulent viruses can take a punt on Cobra. Now looks a good time as investor interest in the bombed-out biotech sector is rapidly reviving with shares such as Oxford Biomedica (OXB) doubling since March.
Demerged from ML Laboratories a year ago at 103p, the shares are now nearly back to where they were and optimists say they could go much, much higher if one of their customers succeeds in developing an AIDS vaccine.
The US says it will spend 5 billion fighting AIDS in Africa and Bill Gates is spending around $500 million through his International Aids Vaccines Institute (IAVI). Cobra made IAVIs anti-AIDS vaccine for the Phase 2 trials. If positive, a Phase 3 trial will start next year which could lead to the drug winning FDA approval in a couple of years time.
Cobra currently only makes small batches of drugs for Phase 1 and 2 trials, but could expand capacity or contract out manufacture. Big drug companies like Cobras leading DNA and virus products manufacturing technology.
IAVI is understood to have granted Cobra a royalty on sales of its AIDS vaccine. If the vaccine goes on sale, Cobra will reap substantial profits.
The same is true for other customers such as the South African AIDS Vaccine Initiative (SAAVI) and Mayne Pharma, an Australian company, with which a long-term manufacturing agreement was signed six months ago to produce a novel genetically engineered virus.
Last November, Cobra opened a US sales office in Chicago. The US accounts for more than 70% of the world market for biopharmaceuticals. Progress is encouraging with US orders of $2.2 million to date compared with $900,000 for the whole of the previous year.
The recent sale of 6.5 million shares at 80p was eight times over-subscribed and the net proceeds of 4.7 million will be used to double capacity through the purchase of a 15,000 manufacturing facility in Oxford. Happily, parent ML has slashed its stake from 46% to just 5%, leaving its offspring to grow unfettered.
Cobra boasts several high-calibre institutional investors led by Fidelity Investments with just under 10%, Standard Life with almost 8% and Legg Mason with almost 7%. The best thing about Cobra is that its basic drug making business is expected to see profits of 1 million this year soaring to 1.6 million next year and 3 million to September 2005 dropping the untaxed PE to 6. Royalties and technology transfer payments, if a vaccine goes on sale, are the icing on the cake which could boost profits several times. Zuzanna Day, wife of the author, owns shares in Cobra.
Shares Summary Cobra shares are a lower-risk punt in the biotech sector. The business plan is ahead of schedule, ML is history and AIDS vaccines promise mega profit potential. Business: Biopharmaceutical products manufacturer Vital stats: Market capitalisation: 19m Historic PE Sep to 02: losses Prospective PE to Sep 03: 18 Prospective PE to Sep 04: 12 No dividend

AFX 7/10/04


LONDON (AFX) - Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC said it sees its year to September loss 'at the bottom end of market forecasts'.

In a trading statement, the biopharmaceutival manufacturing company said its second half sales were 30 pct higher than its first half sales.

'Losses for the year are anticipated to be at the bottom end of market forecasts, however the company's cash resources are well in excess of forecasts as a result of balancing costs and demand,' it said.

Cobra said its confirmed forward order book for the current half year is more than double the position at this time last year. Confirmed orders from North America are improving.

'There is still much ground to be made up against previous expectations for the company but with the current increase in contracted business, the year to September 2005 should see Cobra regaining momentum,' the group said.

email: newsdesk@afxnews.com

jm/

Hawick if your still around could you put some charts in the header, ta

Max online buy via Barclays has just dropped to 7.5K. This was 60K a while ago. A big buyer in the background perhaps or MMs just playing games?

Last years results were released on 2 December. With a doubled order book since then, this stock is looking cheap as chips.

Cobra Bio-Manufacturing PLC
02 December 2003

For Immediate Release 2 December 2003

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc
Preliminary Results
for the year ended 30 September 2003

Cobra Biomanufacturing Plc, the international manufacturer of
biopharmaceuticals, today announces its preliminary results for the twelve
months ended 30 September 2003.

Highlights

Operational:
June 2003 Acquisition of additional biological manufacturing capacity
June 2003 Placing and open offer raised 5.2m before expenses
Major progress in the US during 2003 revenue up 158%
24 global customers, 27 programmes ongoing

Financial:
Manufacturing revenue up 137% to 6.0 million (2002: 2.5 million)
Profit before tax 0.8 million (2002: 0.9 million loss)
Profit after tax 1.0 million (2002: 0.1 million profit)
EPS up 590% to 6.9 pence (2002: 1.0 pence)
Increase in gross margin to 57% (2002: 34%)
Cash at bank 7.3 million (2002: 2.6 million)

Commenting on the results, Peter Fothergill, Executive Chairman said:
'We are extremely pleased with the excellent progress Cobra has made throughout
the year. The placing in June 2003 was well over subscribed and we look forward
to the additional facilities coming on-line in 2004. Together with the increase
in repeat business from existing clients and our strong headway in the US
market, 2004 promises to be an exciting year for Cobra.

It will be interesting to see how the next set of results compare to last years figures.

Financial:
Manufacturing revenue up 137% to 6.0 million (2002: 2.5 million)
Profit before tax 0.8 million (2002: 0.9 million loss)
Profit after tax 1.0 million (2002: 0.1 million profit)
EPS up 590% to 6.9 pence (2002: 1.0 pence)
Increase in gross margin to 57% (2002: 34%)
Cash at bank 7.3 million (2002: 2.6 million)

Nice tick up today. Results are due in a couple of weeks. Net assets are shown in last year's accounts as 10,549,007 million, equivalent to 58.5p per share. This together with doubled turnover makes this stock worth every penny of today's price