Does anyone think that UK house prices are overvalued?

Cantor have started a house price market at www.spreadfair.com. If you look under financial bets you'll see it.

Good to see interest rates have been held again ......

Land Registry said just 159,116 properties changed hands from January through March, down 35 percent on the 243,914 in the same period one year ago.

That is not surpising as this time last year the market was booming and now it has just stabalised.

Jan to March Land Registry figures are for contracts made six to eight weeks beforehand so are rather out of date. Accurate, but old.

ratios of house prices to incomes in the south have reached record highs.

Does this apply to a couples joint income or individual incomes?

Sorry to be contrarian - but I think we are in a temporary "soft patch" in the housing market, and over the next few years prices will head considerably higher. Income multiples may be stretched, but in the Irish Republic they are nearly twice as high as a result of the 2% European base rates - and hence prices have soared much higher than in the UK.

It looks now as though interest rates have peaked in the UK. I notice Roger Bootle (who's he!) predicting interest rates here of 3.5% in 12 months time.

In the world according to gallick, oil prices will surge to perhaps $100 per barrel over the next 3 years. This will lead to high inflation (infact stagflation). The MPC will be unable to put up interest rates as they will not want to damage the housing market and thereby trigger recession. We may well end up with negative real interest rates. House prices go up with inflation (so do wages), so it will be a no brainer to borrow money very cheaply and sit back on the sofa whilst the value of your property rises at a faster rate than the cost paying your loan.

rgrds
gk

I have to agree, I'm to the west roughly of stockdog.
You just can't buy a studio rabbit hutch round here
these days for less then C100,000 (C=carrots) and that's for a small
one in hooded fox infested territory.

Now a nice glade-like location, quieter, less litter etc, with
entry-phone etc for your more executive hutch dweller, easy C160,000
go from a studio to an actual one bed hutch of the multi-storey
variety (like your flats) and well C200,000 easy.....

What they go for round by stockdog I hate to think......
;>)

What effect will the new SIPP legislation allowing property into pension funds do?
I am split between thinking that either the effect on the market will be neutral, i.e. those who own `buys to lets` will merely move them into SIPP`s
and not buy more, or the effect will be a humungous rush to buy property, with the consequent price jump.But there again the latter might cause a glut of buy to lets, causing a sell off.
Basically totally confused, no change here then.

>> Sequestor

I do not think this will have much impact. Firstly to buy a property for 150K (not much these days) you would need 100K in your pension fund (which could borrow the other 50K). The average pension fund at retirement in the UK is only about 30K.

It may appeal to buy-to-letters, but they all seem to be pulling out of the market. To move a property into a SIPP you also have to pay all the costs (including stamp duty)again. Could all be a bit of a damp squib.

rgrds
gk

yes I`m moving to the ` neutral` feeling too, but watch this space,as my neighbour has just put his house on the market for an obscene amount, but it`s in 0.5 acre with a nice view over the Cotswolds, at a price +20% more than I got offered last summer, for my similar property- frightening.
I read that such properties are rarely being built any longer, ah well more boring dinner parties this summer I suppose-
",, my dear- it will be worth that when I retire"

cheers!

This month's www.rightmove.com housing report makes VERY interesting reading. Sounds as if the real decline in prices is about to start.

Move to Thailand 3 bed 3 bath house under 40,000
and the females well you can guess

The females have all got STD? But seriously, how much do you need to live on over there to match a UK lifestyle of, say, 30,000 net after tax and housing costs?

What have the men got?

The Bank of England's rate-setting committee voted 8-1 to leave the benchmark rate at 4.75 percent this month, compared with a 7-2 vote in April, according to the minutes of the May 6-9 meeting

Rates going down and not up!

going down?

House prices? Seems they're 'sticky upwards' in EA talk. Without a bit of fear in the market they may not fall as fast as doomsters predict?

Gordon rides to the rescue!

Chancellor Gordon Brown has said "Buyers would have to raise as little as half the cost of homes sold on the open market"


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4570045.stm


No mention of this plan pre the election though. Strange?