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Snurks - I think the miners that can will & should go on lockdown. Preserve reserves, cash etc.

Pretty much like your dinner conversation.

We put several safety nets in place. The main thing for us would be getting home. After that we'd survive.

I think those dependent on credit or up to their eyes in debt will be forced to either go bust or broker new deals. Governments included. Interest rates will go up as risk is factored in more. As we see with Greece, Italy so often.

Right now China is the enemy. They won't get everything their own way. Who knows maybe the west will start manufacturing Ipads in the North West of the UK & bring much needed jobs. Preston uni is one of the top technology centres where many chinese kids are educated. Why go home? Just set up factories along the M6?

China now needs to think long & hard. If the Fed stops printing......it's game over for the East too.

Gulp!

Jeff Nielson's latest. It makes a good read

Surging Silver Sentiment Signals Spiral

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/silver-commentary/26270-surging-silver-sentiment-signals-spiral

Oh my they are desperate. What a drop in price overnight when everyone is asleep...

Into the abyss for those holding stop losses.

We are at war Snurks.

Here's a part of a reply from Jeff Nielson to one of his subscribers, which I hadn't thought of but it really makes sense. 2 + 2 does make 4 :-)


The concept of "economic supply" is entirely illusory. It is based on the same misconception as people who discuss how most silver is produced as a by product like this is some NATURAL state of affairs.

ALL metals (except literal "rare earths") should be primarily produced from primary mining. When that is NOT the case it is an indication that the metal is substantially under-priced.

Throughout history, most silver has been produced from primary silver mining. The ONLY reason this has not been the case for more than a quarter-century is the RADICAL under-pricing of silver.

Put a zero behind the current price, and I assure you that the distinction of an "economic supply" vanishes entirely, AND the vast majority of the world's silver would come from primary mining

Err omce - AGQ just made a sound decision - let me post the RNS as your post isn't exactly accurate. Theres a history to all this. I don't like misleading nformation as the best bits you've chosen to leave out - now why do that?

My post was entirely accurate. And I linked the Proactive link, with those other bits you mention because I was under the assumption I wouldn't have to spell everything out.

I have no agenda. In fact, if you must know I was one of the optimists on the AGQ who continued to support JW through thick and thin.

Fangorn is my advfn name.

So how are we going to afford this second hand mill if we aren't even producing or selling any Silver at all. The share price has already fallen sub 5p/sh. Anyone not sitting on a massive loss in this one now?


omce, what's your agenda? At least have the courtesy to spout your AGQ rubbish on the AGQ thread. Thanks squirrel for putting him straight.

Snurkle. My post was factual. Please show me exactly what I have said in my post that is not 100% correct.

And I have no agenda - was merely reporting the news so there's no need to be so rude. As far as I can see the AGQ thread here is dead.

hi,
Any chartists out there want to hazard a guess where the bottom SP for silver will be or is it that market conditions are such that charts are useless at times like these?

Alex

Robert,

There is a super chartist next door

http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=9688630#firstpost

and you are right, TPTB have their manipulation sticks out for their own means, so not much use really.

Probably see the bottom of 2008 before we'll move up

Hmm AGQ down 17.6% despite all the good news yesterday!

FYG Squirrel. I went bearish at the point a Seda was announced with YA Global. prior to that I was optimistic things would work out. So no hidden agenda - I still hold. Long term I see PM's reflecting the real world.The question is will AGQ make it.

I wondered why you were so quiet today Squirrel. Now I know why.

I find it ironic that those who claim others are being overly aggressive in their communication subsequently engage in the very same themselves. Accusations fly that I have an agenda merely because I disagree with your opinion and that I am overly aggressive in my comments...

Yet here we see you engage in the very same tactics!!!!

squirrel888 26 Jun'13 - 11:49 - 37957 of 37961 0 0
Well either sell and go away or hold & shut up.

Stop telling people to sell - you or anyone else are not qualified to give that advice.

I don't have a personal beef with you but find it outrageous that you bandy about such claims whilst engaging in said hypocrisy yourself without batting an eyelid.

As someone who is qualified to give advice I can't actually see where Frankel has ever said we should all sell. From what I can see all he has done is point out the perceived negatives of AGQ. That intself is not worthy of you whinging to the company's management, claiming he is defaming Arian or whatever other ridiculous trumped up charges you have been throwing around.

And I certainly don't think Frankel is off the mark with his...

frankel2 26 Jun'13 - 11:57 - 37959 of 37961 0 0

I believe it will be exceptionally difficult for Arian to secure funding. Or on sensible terms. They've been trying to raise cash since January. What does that tell you?
With silver prices dropping like a stone and a weak, inexperienced CEO at the helm (he's a geologist); just who in their right mind is going to loan them $10m?

Snurkle - re thoughts on - when the SHTF

Hard part is deciding what plan/preparedness level you are aiming at
- 24hr power cut
- Cyprus style 2 week banking shutdown
- Martial Law
- or the ...full monty.. eg Mad Max Scenario

To show how "just in time" everything is geared up for today - during the Petrol Tanker Strike a few years back....the supermarket went to No10 - and said if they didn't break/settle the strike ....there was only 3 DAYS supply left in the distribution chain.
(A phrase bandied about at the time ....9 Meals away from starvation beginning)

To give a further example - of what I think could be a major problem - in even a mildly protracted "event" ie mob/gangs with nothing....seeking out the prepper...haves......
- This is how Americans are set up
- I would imagine much of the UK falls in the same category.

Right now we seem to be living in a "hope bubble" and people have become very complacent. For a while there, being a "prepper" was very trendy, but now concern about a coming economic crisis seems to have subsided. What a tragic mistake. As I pointed out yesterday, our entire financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme, and there are already signs that our financial markets are about to implode once again.

Those that have not made any preparations for what is coming are going to regret it bitterly. The following are 17 signs that most Americans will be wiped out by the coming economic collapse...

#1 According to a survey that was just released,
- 76 percent of all Americans are living..... paycheck to paycheck.

#2 - 27 percent of all Americans ....do not have even ....a single penny saved up.

#3 - 46 percent of all Americans have $800 .....or less saved up.

#4 Less than one out of every four Americans has enough money stored away to cover six months of expenses.

#5 Wages continue to fall even as the cost of living continues to go up. Today,
- the average income for the bottom 90 percent of all income earners in America
- is just $31,244.
An increasing percentage of American families are just trying .....to find a way to survive.... from month to month.

#6 - 62 percent of all middle class Americans say that....... they have had to reduce household spending over the past year.

#7 - Small business is becoming an endangered species in America. In fact, only about 7 percent of all non-farm workers in the United States are self-employed at this point.
- That means
- that the vast majority of Americans are depending..... on someone else to provide them with an income.
- But what is going to happen as those jobs disappear?

#8 In 1989, the debt to income ratio of the average American family was about.... 58 percent.
- Today it is up to ..154 percent.

#9 Today, a higher percentage of Americans are dependent on the government than ever before. In fact, according to the U.S. Census Bureau
- 49 percent of.... all Americans..... live in a home that gets direct monetary benefits from the federal government.
- So what is going to happen when the government handout gravy train comes to an end?

#10 Back in the 1970s, about ...one out of every 50.... Americans was on food stamps.
- Today, about.... one out of every 6.5...... Americans is on food stamps.

#11 It is estimated that less than 10 percent of the U.S. population owns any gold or silver for investment purposes.

#12 It has been estimated that there are approximately 3 million "preppers" in the United States. But that means that almost everyone else is not prepping.
(Ie the other ....275 millions - have NO PLANS)

#13 - 44 percent ...of all Americans do not have...... first-aid kits in their homes.

#14 - 48 percent..... of all Americans .....do not have any.... emergency supplies stored up.

#15 - 53 percent of all Americans.... do not have "a 3 day "....supply of nonperishable food and water in their homes.

#16 One survey asked Americans how long they thought they would survive if the electrical grid went down for an extended period of time. Incredibly,....
- 21 percent said that they would survive for... less than a week,
- an additional 28 percent.... said that they would survive for... less than two weeks,
- and nearly 75 percent.... said that they would be... dead
- before the two month mark.

#17 According to a survey conducted by the Adelphi University Center for Health Innovation, 55 percent of Americans believe that the government will come to their rescue when disaster strikes.

Just because you are living a comfortable middle class lifestyle today does not mean that it will always be that way.

If you doubt this, take a look at what is going on in Greece. Many formerly middle class parents in Greece have become so impoverished
- that they are actually.... dumping their children.... at orphanages
- so that they won't starve...

Scores of children have been put in orphanages and care homes for economic reasons; one charity said.... 80 of the 100 children.... in its residential centres
- were there because their families - can no longer provide for them.

Ten percent..... of Greek children are said to be ....at risk of hunger.
- Teachers talk of cancelling PE lessons because
- children are underfed and of seeing pupils ........pick through bins for food.

That account I find very chilling

-and suggests just how quickly "civilisation begins to collapse"
- and how "soon after" humans would then begin to revert to "type behaviour"...ie animal
(As Celente puts it - when people lose everything - then they...lose it)

And certainly the above paints a - Grim Picture, that...

The vast majority of Americans are going to be........ absolutely blindsided
- by what is coming.
- They don't understand how our financial system works,
- they don't understand how vulnerable it is,
- and most of them blindly trust that our leaders
- & think they know exactly what they are doing
(and that they will be able to fix our problems).

As a result, most Americans are simply not prepared
- for the massive storm that is heading our way.

So, that said & moving on - what happens if the situation collapses so far
- that people descend so far that they reach - "revert to type" - ie animals and ...truly "lose it ??

Here is an alledged account of a "survivor

- of when The Serbs besieged Sarajevo (For I believe around 12m)

http://www.prudence-not-paranoia.com/2013/05/16/bosnia-war-survivor-warns-of-things-to-come-in-collapse-of-america/

So within only a few "very recent" years of our immediae history - a EUROPEAN Country - was.......
- as near as damn it - at Defcon ...."Mad Max"

Quite a horrific account.

So - what level do you think ....might be coming down the track...is probably step One - of any plan.

A "starting point" - checklist - to perhaps dealing with - an inconvenient & mildy unpleasant - "event" - is laid out in the attached list....in this link

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/25-things-that-you-should-do-to-get-prepared-for-the-coming-economic-collapse

As I mentioned at the beginning - as time goes on....

No - 20 Self-Defense - would grow increasingly...in relevance & importance

In the years ahead, being able to defend
- your home
- and your family is going to become increasingly important.
- When.... the economy crashes,
- people are going to start to become...... very desperate.
And desperate people...... do desperate things.


Wow that was a bit epic - so will leave it at that for now - and "HOPE" it's just a work of.....acedemic theory.

Great post Gaz. You've had a day off I presume? :-)

Oh dear omce is fanghorn. So I was out today sharing time with a French friend - very kind & intelligent with a very good insight into the whole of Europe.

I've just discovered the squelch button on here. Brilliant - I don't have to read anymore bs from psychos who scream everything is terrible, we should sell & then admit they are holders & that PMs will recover.

Marvellous.

Gaz - excellent stuff & confirms some of our conversation today.

Found the squelch button too.....
Fanghorn filtered on advfn so filtered here.

Amazing how suddenly the bear abusive club have arrived next door too.

Snurkle - day off - "was".... the plan :o)

Just been reading some analysts views on the p/metals in last 15 min (love 'em and great work if you can get it !

If silver takes ot it's previous high and breaks $50 - it will go on to make a new high.
(Yes an honours degree holder in - economic obvious infant grade maths)

How they earn a living spouting.......

If $19 gives way then we head straight down to $15. Now $19 becomes resistance.
- If $15 gives way then we head down rather quickly to $12.
- At this point in time we should see a bit of an oversold rally.

Once the rally is over back up to $14… then $12 finally gets taken out and we drop to $10, by end of July.
- Well, if $10 gets taken down then there is no support until $7.50… and if we get serious selling at this point…..
- we could easily see sub $5 by August.

And if all support gets taken out under $5… then
- we can see silver
- being given away..... for free :o)

Should silver be given away..for free....IMO this would signal ...a strong entry point
- and would probably indicate a bottom, followed by a turning point.

Italy - oops
(Further sign all is - improving nicely - fine and dandy)

The Telegraph reports,
Mediobanca's 'index of solvency risk' suggests
- "time is running out fast" for .....Italy.

With the breakdown in Eurozone talks on a banking union and the Fed's shift in policy, Europe "has become a dangerous place," warns RBS.

- Unless Italy can count on low borrowing costs and a broad recovery,
....... it will "inevitably end up in...... an EU bailout."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10139939/Italy-joins the totally FCUKed-EU-rescue-within-six-months-warns-Mediobanca.html

The current situation is as bad as when the country was blown out of the ERM in 1992 as "the Italian macro situation has not improved...rather the contrary;
- with 160....... large corporates in Italy
- now in special...... crisis administration."

Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick
KWN states his record as...
- called the rally high on gold ..correctly..at $1,791 in October of 2012,
-( then turned bearish on gold and it proceed to come down significantly in price).
- Then....after gold recently breached the key $1,520 area
- he called for a target around the mid-$1,200s,
- and once again, almost like a magnet, voila - it's in the target zone.

Opinion on - where next ??

It’s possible that gold may trade a bit lower because of momentum, but certainly...
- we have now achieved the target
(I gave to you when we broke the double-top on gold).

“We found this interesting because it was
- virtually identical to the high-to-low down-move that we saw in gold in 2008 (also 34%). While we certainly haven’t seen anything yet to say we are about to head up dramatically, we believe

- that we ..may.. be bottoming here in gold.

Now that we’ve essentially achieved that target, our feeling has always been that a healthy trend gets healthy corrections. This is yet another healthy correction like we saw in 2008.
- The interesting thing is because of where we’ve come from,
- if ......we were to now follow, over the next three years, the move after we put in that 2008 low in gold in terms of magnitude,
- it actually suggests something in the region of .......$3,400 to $3,500 for gold
(see chart below).

Same Guy - on Silver

Our view that a host of markets are following the 1966 to 1982 pattern,
- which means this cycle will ultimately culminate around 2016.
(So what’s happening here now is actually pushing us into a target for gold that fits nicely with our big picture view of a host of key markets.”)

- If - we’re near the end of this cyclical decline in both gold and silver, what might we look for going forward?”
- “If we are in fact ending it, as I mentioned our focus has been that we will now start the multi-year move on gold to $3,400 to $3,500.


Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction,
- we got down to levels below $9, then.....
- we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times.

So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver (see chart below).

" Brilliant - I don't have to read anymore bs from psychos who scream everything is terrible, we should sell & then admit they are holders & that PMs will recover."

So where have I said that?

Challenge you to prove it as I have been one of the more optimistic AGQ shareholders for a long time.

So my thoughts on the above... guestimates fwiw

- IF (Big if) - the Banksters .....
- after the (obviously) manipulated takedown are doing a standard "rinse and repeat"....and in line with charts in - the last 2 posts....shortly let the metals free (for a decent run)
- they "should" be exiting their previously massive shorts, as a result of "their" takedown of the paper price
- and be swinging over into increasingly ....net long
(or conversley be swinging into a decreasingly reduced....net short position)



And that chart shows

“The ...net... commercial...... short position
- is at the....... lowest level...... sinceway, way back in February of 2005,
( when gold was at just.....$425 an ounce.”)

Worries me tho'
(since we entered topsy turvey world)
- when things - seem to ....stack up...as joined up ....and sensible