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William Hill (WMH)     

rolling - 04 Nov 2003 14:05

Where do you think they will go to or should i sell now

jimmy b - 21 Jan 2014 11:13 - 260 of 472

Exactly , and i'd like to see Millibands view if god forbid he was in .

HARRYCAT - 21 Jan 2014 11:47 - 261 of 472

JP Morgan comment:
Some restrictions on gaming machines are likely: Following the increased focus from the opposition on the issue of gaming machines regulation, we think that the government is now more likely to impose some restrictions. While there could be some protection for the industry (as a significant employer, and financial supporter of UK horse racing), we think that lobbying power is limited. Restrictions could come as early as spring 2014 (as the Prime Minister mentioned in the House of Commons), but are more likely to come in the autumn, after the outcome of the Responsible Gambling Trust’s study into the possible link between gaming machines and problem gambling is known.
We have analysed the impact of a restriction on maximum stakes. Campaigners against the machines often cite the amount that it is possible to lose on the machines (theoretically £300/minute, although this is often misrepresented). We see B2 game stakes (current max £100) as an easy target, not least as this could be done from within existing legislation. We have based our analysis on a reduction in the max stake to £20, which we think could reduce gaming machine revenue by 15%. Assuming some offset from "lost" revenue moving online, our scenario suggests 39% downside to our FY15 EPS forecast for LAD, 13% downside for WMH and a broadly neutral impact for PWL. Over time, we think that LAD and WMH could also have to close a significant proportion of their shops, as we think that the bottom 20% of the shops would be lossmaking in our scenario (vs. 10% currently), and a further 20% only marginally profitable.
Increased regulatory risk comes on top of existing industry headwinds: Slowing gaming machine growth is putting pressure on UK Retail profitability. After a decade of strong growth, gaming machines (50% of UK Retail revenue) are maturing. This is putting pressure on top line growth in UK Retail, (as OTC betting is in gentle decline) and so on per-shop profitability.
Intensifying competition in UK Online. Ahead of the planned change to a point of consumption (POC) tax on UK online gambling in Dec-14, competition is intensifying in this fragmented market as operators fight for scale. Affected by the transition from desktop to mobile, online gaming (c.50% of online revenue) also remains weak for many operators.
We now use sum-of-the-parts valuation: We now value LAD and WMH using SOTP (vs. PE previously), allowing us to isolate UK Retail from the rest of the businesses. We apply a 5.5x EBITDA multiple to UK Retail (in line with previous trough multiples), and a 14x multiple to Online. We also use our FY15 forecasts vs. FY14 previously. On this basis, our LAD price target moves to 95p (from 140p; we forecast a 19% fall in LAD’s EPS in FY15 vs. FY14). Our WMH price target moves to 340p (from 360p), both Jan-15 from Nov-14). We continue to value PWL on a PE basis, and our Jan-15 (was Nov-14) price target moves to €63 (from €59), based on a 25% PE premium to the gaming subsector and our FY15 forecasts."

david lucas - 21 Jan 2014 12:11 - 262 of 472

Good post Harrycat. Think it confirms the 340 level

Dil - 22 Jan 2014 02:34 - 263 of 472

Did well out of these but sold out and switched into online only operators.

Absolute crap compared to William Hill but thats where the growth is.

Dil - 22 Jan 2014 02:37 - 264 of 472

... wouldn't touch betfair with a bargepole ... it's buying revenue to boost it's result but my best guess is margins are falling and profit.

jimmy b - 22 Jan 2014 10:46 - 265 of 472

Big fall now !

HARRYCAT - 22 Jan 2014 10:48 - 266 of 472

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=WMH&Si

Chris Carson - 22 Jan 2014 11:01 - 267 of 472

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=UKX&Size=

Chris Carson - 22 Jan 2014 11:03 - 268 of 472

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=WMH&Size=

Chris Carson - 22 Jan 2014 11:18 - 269 of 472

Daily chart mirroring UKX if UKX bounces and WMH doesn't I'm outa here. Watching.

Chris Carson - 23 Jan 2014 10:18 - 270 of 472

For now anyway, support holding and matching brokers recommendation above. Time will tell if 340p is fair value or not.

goldfinger - 23 Jan 2014 10:37 - 271 of 472

Dropping like UTD down the table.

skinny - 23 Jan 2014 10:48 - 272 of 472

Not that fast! :-)

jimmy b - 23 Jan 2014 15:45 - 273 of 472

One of the few blue on my list !

Chris Carson - 24 Jan 2014 10:40 - 274 of 472

Stopped out jimmy @ 339.0 - 26.9

Article in local rag re-gaming machines in betting shops, doesn't help.

Chris Carson - 24 Jan 2014 23:14 - 275 of 472

MARKET REPORT: Gambling on the High Street bookies as crunch time for high stakes betting machines beckons
By ROGER BAIRD
PUBLISHED: 22:31, 24 January 2014 | UPDATED: 22:31, 24 January 2014
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Investors know the next few months will be a crunch time for the future of high stakes betting machines for firms such as Ladbrokes and William Hill.
These machines are likened to crack cocaine and allow punters to wager up to £100 every 20 seconds on games such as roulette. Critics like anti-gambling charities and the Labour party say these machines exploit problem gamblers in the poorest parts of the country.
Bookmakers deny there is any link between addictive gambling and these machines. They add that these higher stake machines were first brought in after the Labour government relaxed rules in 2001.
Since then these machines have grown to contribute a significant proportion of bookmaker’s sales.
MARKET REPORT: Gambling on the High Street bookies as crunch time for high stakes betting machines beckons
Ladbrokes, up 1.9p to 152.6p, says it will take up around 38 per cent of net revenue this year, while William Hill, down 5.9p at 336.9p, says it will contribute 29 per cent to sales in 2014.
In March trade body the Association of British Bookmakers will attempt to head off some of this criticism by introducing a tougher code of conduct governing the 33,000 fixed odds betting machines in the UK, which generate £1.5billion in annual sales.

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The industry code will include longer delays between starting a new game, staff training to identify problem gamblers and removing cash machines from betting shops.
However, Labour has called for stronger action. It wants local councils to have the power to veto new betting shops in their area, and a cut in the number of machines allowed in each bookie (currently the maximum is four). Other charities have gone further and called for the maximum stake a punter can make to come down from £100 to as little as £2.
Labour lost a Commons vote on its proposals earlier this month by 314 votes to 232. However, the coalition government admitted it was looking hard at the growth of these machines.
Culture Minister Helen Grant said: ‘There is no green light for these machines. Their future is unresolved pending the research we have started.’
Analysts at Investec describe cutting maximum bets from £100 to £2 as ‘the ugly’ option, which could slice up to £150million off betting machines sales.
The broker says that beyond 2014 the future for the betting machine industry is ‘opaque.’ However, its best guess is that limited government regulation maybe added to what the industry plans to bring in. Investec concludes this will leave William Hill in a strong ‘buy’ position, but retains its ‘sell’ on Ladbrokes, which also has to contend with an underperforming online business.
The FTSE 100 fell 109.54 points to 6663.74 as Britain’s top shares sank to five-week low, with stocks exposed to emerging markets suffering the biggest losses, knocked by a rout in Latin American currencies. It was the lowest close for the blue-chip index since December 20.
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100.02 points to 16,097.33 in early trading as the a sell-off of emerging market currencies also hit the world’s largest economy.
Back in London, Aberdeen Asset Management shed 24.1p to 397.3p, the FTSE 100’s top faller, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares to ‘underweight’ from ‘equalweight’. The broker cited worsening fund performance and challenging emerging-market fundamentals.
While rival Ashmore was among the steepest FTSE 250 midcap decliners, off 18.2p at 325.8p, suffering from their heavy exposure to emerging markets after Argentina’s central bank gave up its battle against the currency’s decline. The Mexican peso and a number of Asian currencies also suffered.
Credit checking firm Experian slipped 52p to 1,072p, brewer SABMiller fell 89p to 2,889p, while bank HSBC was down 13.1p to 645.9p. All three firms have a large exposure to Latin America.
Retailer Sports Direct lifted 2p to 708p following reports the group has begun talks with Debenhams following last week’s news of a complex share transaction. The department stores group eased 2.05p to 76.6p.
City broker Charles Stanley, up 8.5p to 510p, said revenues rose 18 per cent in the three months to December with funds under management up 13.4 per cent in the nine months to £20.1billion.
But Square Mile rival Close Brothers was down 29p to 1,307p, even after it said its loan book increased 4 per cent to £4.8billion over the last six months.
- Shares in e-Therapeutics tumbled nearly 16 per cent after the Oxford-based biotech firm said it was suspending recruitment for cancer treatment trials because of problems storing the drug during the test period. The drug firm said patients already testing its ETS2101 brain cancer treatment would continue the programme, but the firm would not take on new recruits until further notice. e-Therapeutics said it had informed the relevant regulators and hopes to re-start the full programme ‘as soon as possible’.
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Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2545573/MARKET-REPORT-Gambling-High-Street-bookies-crunch-time-high-stakes-betting-machines-beckons.html#ixzz2rMQJBC00
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cynic - 29 Jan 2014 11:07 - 276 of 472

have bitten the bullet on this little turncoat ..... since it's horrid tumble, it shows no sign of being able to building a support above 340

jimmy b - 29 Jan 2014 16:18 - 277 of 472

Anyone want to bet on 3 quid here ? excuse the pun..

HARRYCAT - 29 Jan 2014 16:32 - 278 of 472

.

jimmy b - 29 Jan 2014 16:33 - 279 of 472

I'm not a chartest HARRY .
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