The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

You're right, Strawbs. I'm coming across as desperate mostly for the humour value; (for which I suspect no-one will thank me :o)) but in truth I'm looking forward to going bargain-hunting at the right moment because my small oilers and similar are still all primed to do very nicely in the coming year or so, and if I can sell some high and buy back in much cheaper then I guess I'm a happy Trader.

What strikes me is that there appears to be a lot of pre-emptive selling (credit again to Goldfinger for sowing the thought), as you wouldn't ordinarily get this much movement on an oil-price change of just $1 or so. Okay, so it's the interest rates as well, but the tiddlers I'm investing in are the ones taking the worst battering when they still have the most to gain from high oil prices, even if crude goes to $40. I'd be far more worried if I had shares in BP and general blue-chip stocks as they carry the bigger down-side risks, but as usual it's not about risk but about the market's perception of risk.

Fortune will favour the brave and the patient.

I'm sure plenty of people are in the same boat. Not sure when it'll be safe to go bargain hunting. It's very difficult to trust this market at the moment. Just when you think a shares reached the bottom......it falls further. Given that much of a price support is down to sentiment, I'd look at the price charts. If the price is trending down (as VOG appears to be), I'd avoid, at least until a sustained period of flat lining. Everyone tends to think that a "bargain" is only there for that moment and they have to buy there and then. I've found that patience is often rewarded by waiting to see the trend, rather than buy straight away. Good luck with bargain hunting.

Strawbs.

Good points, Strawbs. My theory is I'll know a good buy when I see it (I've been right before, sometimes!), but will let this be influenced by taking the temperature of the market, charting, etc.

I'd be inclined to wait through the summer, though, simply because I can't see the turn-around coming that quickly, and even if things do start to look more positive this side of the holiday season, I think it'll take a while for confidence to return, which again takes us into September. At the earliest. If Bernanke keeps flapping his gums indiscreetly to every floozie with a Dictaphone, then we'd probably all be better off playing the binary betting game for a while.

EDIT. Right now is a good chance to get my head down, do some research on what people are saying is hot and see how it all comes out in the wash.

Actually small caps will probably do worse than large caps in a bear market. The main reason is that small caps are generally "one trick ponies". e.g. They could do really really well, if they strike oil (or whatever market they are in), but they could fall flat on their face if it goes wrong. Large caps have lots of diversity. One piece of bad news will only make a small dent in the overall prospects. Of course you won't get rich quick with large caps, but you won't (shouldn't) get poor quick either. Remember that "bear" and "bull" are sentiment indicators. Bulls are happy to take lots of risks with their money, so markets (particularly small caps) are generally over valued on the chance of some good news. The bulls will also stay invested, on the "hope" of better news if something slightly fails to meet expectations. e.g. Missed RNS, late drilling results. etc. Bears don't like taking risk, so money is pulled out of high risk, and switched into defensive plays. Remember too that market makers (who must buy the shares) don't like risk. Holding lots of shares is risky, so in a falling market, prices are marked down quicker than in a rising market (bescause they don't know when they'll get rid of them).

Strawbs.

Don't think anyone can blame Bernanke particularly. He will have far more facts, advisors and computer models on the state and direction of the economy (US and globally) than all of us. Probably better to have a few alarm bells now to slow things down, rather than suddenly falling off a cliff later.

Strawbs.

Good afternoon, everyone!

Who's still alive out there? Has everyone headed for the lifeboats, or are there a few stalwarts still sitting with the orchestra for a few more choruses of "Abide With Me"?

Phillip Coggan of the FT had this to say regarding forthcoming inflation news:

>>However, it is a good rule of thumb that the more worried investors are about a piece of data in advance, the greater the likelihood of a rebound in prices when their worst fears are not realised.

Ian Scott, a strategist at Lehman Brothers, says the sell-off in stock markets has been overdone. Global equities may now be close to a bottom. The large volumes traded over the last few days may indicate some squaring of positions. In other words, the deleveraging may be close to an end. < <

Read the full article here, but only if you have a subscription to FT.com

Maybe so, maybe not. Personally I'm inclined to take a sanguine view of things given that the one price that's really driving my portfolio is that of crude. Some companies that are being hammered now are just begging to be bought, or soon will be, IMO.

All together now, " . . . fast falls the eventide . . . ." (Remember when the Paratroopers all sing that at the end of "A Bridge too Far"? Magic.)

PS - sorry about all that text in the FT.com link. Have tried to correct it but I can't. Doesn't anything function properly around here ??!! ;o)

Ah Soul*, I think there is a lot of truth in the comment that, in this instance, the actuality will be a relatively pleasant surprise ...... however, such is the state of the market, that any recovery could well be very short-lived

I'm counting on it, Cynic. Just in the process of liquidating my MOG holding so I've got more cash with which to go bargain hunting with a big stick when the time comes.

You know me; I like to post inflammatory comment to see what comes of it :o)

having lightened quite a bit already and taken shorts on FTSE (lovely!) and DOW and S&P (both in the money), unsure whether to ditch some VOG purely on the basis that I ams till overweight there, but am reluctant to do so

Sounds like a good tactic Cynic.

VOG will come back, sooner or later. Why not try a binary bet or something if you think there's some downside to be exploited?

from what i hear, binary is far far too scary for muppets like me! ..... In fact, closed my short postions and went long Dow and FTSE ...... guess i'll just keep very close stops on them

I wonder if the Dow can keep up today ,,good start.

Spoke too soon .

wed should be key day for short term the cpi from the us is released this is the last big indicator before the rate meeting on 29/6.

This market f****** is b*******

It will turn at some point .Patience .

I'm slightly perturbed by news on FT.com that oil stocks have reached one billion barrels.

>> Oil inventories in the developed world rose to more than 1bn barrels, their highest level in more than 20 years, as high prices are weighing on consumption, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog for the developed world.

The oil inventories are higher than the levels seen in 1998, which triggered an oil price collapse to $10 as oil demand growth started to slow. < <

Full Article

Any views?

It's done it again with the links - apologies, will mention it to the website mechanic.