How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

Click here to learn more

There is a new Betfair demo which you may like to try. Very glossy.

http://www.betfairpromo.com/tutorial/index.asp

Thanks Harlosh

Another cracking night on the football last night. Managed to find a PC to log in at while at Canary wharf yesterday evening. Just couldn't resist the opportunity and a quick return too!!

Then decamped to Bar 38 and got drunk on the proceeds. Managed to (just) catch the last train home. Now regretting things this morning!!

Scrip - You must be the only one that comes home with 'more ' after a night out on the p**s than you went out with. 'well done':o)
M

A bumper payout for me on the FTSE today, over 4.5 times my stake in total. The days on which the FTSE doesn't move much can be great earners because of the reversals.

Kayak,

Could you explain what you mean by "because of the reversals" ?

Thanks

Yes, I was talking about the intraday markets. When the FTSE is not moving much it will stay close to the line that determines whether it is up or down for the next hour. It might well be up for some of the time and then reverse to being down or vice versa.

If the odds when it is up are for instance 1.5 to close up and you foresee that it will reverse, you can lay at 1.5, i.e. stand to gain 200 for every 100 of possible loss, which is a very good risk/reward ratio. If you foresee that the FTSE will stay up then the best you can do is back it at 1.5, i.e. stand to gain 50 for every 100 of possible loss. The former trade will obviously make you much happier if you are correct so reversals are good for business.

It is often possible to lay at 1.2 or so (100 for every 20 risked) and exceptionally under 1.1. Should you be lucky enough to be convinced that a 1.01 is going to turn over then hit it with 100 to gain 10,000 :-)

Kayak - if my understanding is right, in the last scenario above you would have to stake 10,000 even though your risk is only 100. Do you have to have that amount in your account, or just the 100 risked?

The examples in your excellent Thoughters article showed brilliant tape reading skills - or a splendid crystal ball:-) - and likewise above you mention "foresee that it will reverse". If you are able, without jeopardising your position, can you please give us any pointers for seeking direction over the short term of less than an hour? It is this aspect that I'm having most difficulty with, no doubt helping to feed cash into your coffers :-)

Just the amount risked. In fact the account will just need to have in it the maximum possible loss on any of the possible outcomes of the event. E.g. if the side you were laying already had 40 green when you laid 10,000 at 1.01, you would only need 100 less 40 = 60 in your account.

Lol, I certainly wouldn't call my tape reading skills brilliant :-) I look for obvious patterns based on support, resistance and trends and look for confirmation by the 'feel' of the trading as seen on a futures or spreadbetter feed. I don't myself know exactly how but you can see the pressure one way or the other on how the prices are changing.

Obviously I don't always get it right by any stretch of the imagination but the clever thing about Betfair is that if you are wrong you have a number of ways you can get out of trouble with a smaller loss or even zero.

Many thanks Kayak. I've seen one of these 1.01 opportunities, but I had no idea you could take such advantage of them. Must be quite a rarity though, otherwise no-one in their right minds would risk the huge losses.

Interesting that the normal TA things are effective on such short timescales. Must work on developing that all-important 'feel'.

Thanks again - you've been most helpful.

Kajak, been playing with binary bets,is there much difference in prices to betfair, been watching betfair and sometimes the spreaad goes ridiculous , so ide have to advertise my own price and hope to be filled if i wanted to exit,
With binary ive always got the same spread and can exit at any time at the touch of a button,Am i paying over the top for this priviledge? seems to be the same prices roughly as betfair to me when converted, but i might be barking up wrong tree,

Ruth, the best tactic is to take a Betfair price and hedge with Binary Bets.

The prices on Betfair track Bins prices for very clear reasons. Guys in the city take the feeds from a variety of services and automatically put prices up on Betfair. They also arb the two so if you get a better price on Betfair the bots take it off.

Not sure if you are aware but you have a decimal option on binary bets so compare prices using that.

A long time ago I used to arb between the two but the bots measure there success in milliseconds now so poor old humans have no hope. Its a battle of the bots.

I use VIX to figure out whether I should back or lay.

Pip if you lay 1000 at 1.01 your liability is 10 but your potential reward is 1000 less commision.

The daily / midday up and downs are less volatile so lend themselves to low backing but the intra days can be manic. There are interesting markets but highly volatile so you can make or lose a fortune on them. Difficult to hedge out or cut a loss at the prices move so quickly.

Ruth, I haven't got into binary bets, I suppose I should do. Generally speaking if you advertise a price within the spread on Betfair you will normally get filled within a reasonable time, unless you leave it to when the price is crashing down of course.

Thanks Scrip.

The day I make 1000 by risking 10, I'll be very happy to shell out 50 commission :-)

Best ever night on the football. Just one of those nights when everything came off. Was using some matches to test some new strategies as well and that added a few quid to the pot. Life is good!

Pip and there in lies the problem, if over the course of a year you only win that bet 1 in 100 times then thanks to commision you will still be a loser.

Scrip: I see what you mean. In that case, I'll try and stick to the 1.01's that occur just before the market is about to reverse :-))

Scrip

Good to hear

Made about 35% return on my pot on the footie tonight so well pleased (especially having not been able to trade during the day)