Investors' Room :: AFREN (AFR) Is this the next TULLOW??? - MoneyAM - Free Share Prices, Stock Quotes, Charts, News, Level2

niceonecyril - 04 Apr 2009 08:30

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Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Si

Balerboy - 28 Nov 2014 16:10 - 2681 of 3666

bit the bullet and topped up at 52.14p ave 65p now. :(

niceonecyril - 01 Dec 2014 08:17 - 2685 of 3666

Crude Oil and Commodity Prices
December, Monday 1 2014 - 03:14:08
WTI Crude Oil
$66.15 ▼-7.54 -11.40%
2014.11.30 end-of-day

Brent Crude Oil
$70.15 ▼-7.60 -10.83%
2014.11.30 end-of-day

niceonecyril - 01 Dec 2014 08:49 - 2686 of 3666

Todays chart,not nice,still waiting bottom in oilprice?Has to be a no brainer imo, if timed right ?
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Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=AFR&Size=

mitzy - 01 Dec 2014 08:49 - 2687 of 3666

This is becoming nasty.

cynic - 01 Dec 2014 09:07 - 2688 of 3666

timing is ALWAYS the key ...... thank goodness i'm heavily o'weight and short of Dow, though if i am honest (as always!), most of those positions are from 4/6 weeks back, so i'm just recouping some horrors

required field - 01 Dec 2014 09:29 - 2689 of 3666

Really nasty.....anyone would think there was an oil crisis !....

required field - 01 Dec 2014 09:33 - 2690 of 3666

Perhaps clutching at straws....a serious rebound in crude coming ?...I'm very surprised at how far it has slumped...

jimmy b - 01 Dec 2014 09:43 - 2691 of 3666

Eventually rf there has to be ..
Got to be some cheap oilers about soon

Balerboy - 01 Dec 2014 11:43 - 2692 of 3666

might have to wait for the shale oilers in america to go bust first.......

piston broke - 01 Dec 2014 12:09 - 2693 of 3666

as per market trends in oil price..........the fact that Dragon have dropped out of Petroceltic suggests that they want to wait for oil price recovery

jimmy b - 01 Dec 2014 17:27 - 2694 of 3666

From over the road
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From motley fool..

A toxic combination of management corruption and the falling price of oil has driven Afren (LSE: AFR) shares down by 71% so far this year, to 47p, the lowest level since June 2009.

Many shareholders are probably feeling pretty unhappy: management corruption is always a nasty surprise, and has compounded the effect of the falling oil price.

Bargain valuation?
The independent report into the unauthorised payments made to former directors found that there was “no material loss” to Afren as a result of these transactions. Happily, the evidence we have seen so far suggests that the firm’s operations and the value of its assets have been unaffected by this scandal.

What’s more, analysts’ forecasts for Afren’s earnings have not fallen anywhere near as fast as the firm’s share price.

Although last week’s sudden fall in the price of oil is not yet fully reflected in earnings forecasts for the next couple of years, it’s worth noting that Afren now trades on a 2015 forecast P/E of just 4.

Even if we downgrade next year’s earnings by another 20%, that still leaves Afren shares trading on a forecast P/E of 5, which looks cheap to me.

Potential upside before Q2 2015?
It seems clear to me that if Afren manages to deliver 2014 earnings anywhere near current forecasts, then Afren’s share price could re-rate sharply. Similarly, any rebound in the oil price could lift Afren’s shares quite quickly.

However, it’s important for investors to consider how the firm’s operations and growth plans might be affected if oil prices remain at current levels.

Is Afren still profitable?
In my view, Afren’s operations should remain solidly profitable with oil at $70 per barrel: Afren’s results for the first nine months show that it generated net cash from operating activities of $454.8m on sales of $798.5m, suggesting production costs of around $40 per barrel.

However, it’s clear that next year’s profits will be lower, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the firm scales back some of its planned capital expenditure to prevent a cash crunch.

Is Afren a takeover target?
Afren currently trades at half its book value, despite the proven quality and cash generating potential of its assets.

As such, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bid emerge in the next few months. One possible candidate is Nigerian shareholder South Atlantic Petroleum Limited, which has built a 7% stake in Afren so far this year.

Even without a bid, I believe there are several factors that could drive a strong rebound for Afren shares over the next 3-6 months.

mitzy - 01 Dec 2014 19:05 - 2695 of 3666

Oil could fall to $40 on Sky news.

cynic - 01 Dec 2014 20:02 - 2696 of 3666

maybe, though sooner or later (and which will it be) the cycle will turn once more

mentor - 02 Dec 2014 09:56 - 2697 of 3666

Time to buy the stock again ( in an out is profitable over here )

============= 1 month brent oil ============================ 3 month brent oil

mobile.chart?TYPE=MOUNTAIN&ID_NOTATION=1

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niceonecyril - 02 Dec 2014 10:09 - 2698 of 3666

Perhaps the tide has turned at last,even at these levels a bargain imo?
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cynic - 02 Dec 2014 10:14 - 2699 of 3666

i've bought a few more at 51.0 as it does not look too bad a risk at that level

mentor - 02 Dec 2014 10:17 - 2700 of 3666

And what a spike from 49 to 51p, naturally 50p is a very important number on the charting front

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Si

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AFREN (AFR) Is this the next TULLOW??? (AFR)