Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Davai - 25 Jan 2013 08:19 - 267 of 268

FTSE to hit 6290/6300 later?

This is straight up, i nearly said to hit 6293 before close of play, here's why;

Davai - 24 Jan 2013 15:46 - 263 of 269

It doesn't mean its the top, but it was always going to be a target, once it broke the intermediate line on Tuesday. I went long yesterday @ 6184, but couldn't read what it was doing so closed for -2... i then missed the later test of the lower TL... sh*t happens!

-----------------------------

How the hell can i preach, higher to come, go with trend etc, manage to get long at 6184, more importantly, with stop at 6179 and then stop myself out manually cos i then decide that i couldn't read the prior overnight action? It came within 0.5 pip of stop, but that was placed strategically according to my original thought. It would have stood, so 5 pip risk and now 100+ pips higher... sometimes i need shooting...

Ah, i remember now, it made a lovely looking 3w abc move down from a minor 5w up, after initially climbing from there, it spoilt it all by making a fresh low, this changed my initial view and i closed for -2. I think this may also indicate my underlying state of mind after the last two weeks trading.

Confidence breeds confidence, but the same is true in the opposite direction. Go on a losing run and it can easily multiply. A trade is a trade, simple, but as we all know, it takes more than that to be successful. There are so many aspects to trading and i think discipline is actually the hardest part to conquer. I know a good trade when i see it, no question. But through my desire to make more, a hunger for success, it breeds greed and its that greed that is ultimately the undoing.

Normally i can control it, but i've actually learnt so much in the last month or so, that i think i let it get away from me a bit. I became over-confident and that is when i must be most fearful. The 'i can trade complex moves... watch this...' attitude makes the market laugh at you and with one flex of its muscles, you're back on your arse!

Ok, well, its weekend. At least i recognise my mistakes, mistakes are good! The learning never stops, but lets get the discipline in order. Without it, you'll never make any headway...

Have a good weekend all... and keep smiling )

Waiting to see if cable has a reaction at the 15,665 area. Missed a rejection of an upper channel line on Friday amongst all else going on... In fact i've been far too slow here, with a lovely short entry last Wednesday at the upper trendline (blue circle) missed. My earlier thoughts about the wedge not being complete are looking unlikely now, if that was an irregular 'B' of wave 2, we can expect 3 to be extended, so plenty of downside to come. I still don't like the start of the 3rd though... really struggling to label it, so caution req'd in case this is complex, even so, shorting off of the line (particularly when combined with the 38.2% retrace) proved yet more low risk/high prob trading...

Hmmmmm that above chart and statement has got me in knots! 'C' waves aren't usually as steep as wave 3's, look at the channel compared to wave 1! Not as steep... its possible this is a complex correction, along with the start of the channel which clearly looks more a&b, so instead of 1&2, we have A&B, in which case look for perhaps more than just a reaction off of 15,865 area, (although C could go on to 161.8/200% etc), its too difficult to label in waves, so i'm not going to attempt it, another pointer to it still being corrective... lets see... the best shorts have undoubtedly been and gone in this channel set, (unless i can work this out for sure and get some kind of count).

Post 268;



Updated chart and likely fresh count;

Euro trade. First a clean bounce off of the 50% retrace of prior move (wave3);



Now drop down to the 10sec chart to follow for 5w/3w minor. Easy to follow wave structure. First 'A' retraces 38.2% of 5w advance, then we can get long at 100% of 'A' after following count merging together with channel line to the very pip;

The further clue is that point 5 breaches the prior LH...
It doesn't matter what phase it is, whether it is the whole 5th to come etc, the minimum to expect after a 5/3 is another 5 regardless if impulse 3,'X', triangle etc... If you have it wrong and it was abc of larger 'A', we still have 3w 'B', so pips are safe!
When it as clear to follow as earlier, with the 100% level also meeting channel line, it is nailed on pips in the bank...

Can't help thinking we are a whisker away from a major top for the Euro, poss already hit a moment ago. Ok, so i'm not in the business of calling a top, the trend is up until confirmed different, but there is certainly a count which makes this the Y of the second set (Y of Y), i will run some fibs about in a bit, but in any case, here is the current 5w regardless of which cycle we are in;

Prediction at the turn of the year;



and so, perhaps Y will be a fib level of W, we are near to the 76.4% and coincides with above 61.8% projection;



The problem being we might only have reached the first set, either way we should be set for some downside imminent as at least an X wave.

Ok, lets see if this works, long on EJ for what i perceive as a 5th of this current cycle, tight stop and 12,440 target;

Wow, cable has been really bugging me for a couple of weeks now, but it's truly a case of 'seek and ye shall find'!

I was expecting what i considered was still the 3rd in the channel to hit a fib level of wave 1;

(yesterday);



It didn't manage that as i had it labeled, now however, i have a fresh count which indicates a full 5w move finished and we are not in a 4th right now, but actually an A (of abc) of which we will correct the full 5 waves. The fresh count hits all its fib levels to the pip, so very exact and why i believe it to be correct. Cable can be a cracker sometimes for this, despite the structure being a little difficult to determine;

This why i will only trade a 'C' wave unless i can get in right at the end of the 5th, a couple of possibilities;



The higher count would tie up a retest of a former channel line, so quite poss...

Possible end of 'A';

GJ, possible end of cycle;

Closer inspection makes this pullback a minor 4th, so higher to come later... 14,450/70 target area. Also have higher poss at around 12,465 for EJ too.

Have been run down with a cold lately, nothing major, but its surprising how tiredness affects you, feeling brighter this morning and a bit more on the ball.

I like this following chart a lot, it means higher to come yet for GJ before finishing the overall 3rd wave, (after a pullback minor 4th today and ignoring last nights chart!), this also coincides with my Cable call that we will print a B wave today (as of last nights chart, post 282).

Currently long EJ and trialling what i hope is a fantastic trading plan to be able to ride 3rd waves, small posi, but hoping this will prove itself... more about that later, but here's the chart to work to;



The reason i like it is because of the fib's. EW means little without them. The reaction at 300% of minor wave 'i' for top of 'iii' and then the minor 'v' hitting its 50% level as well as the top of the channel for end of wave 1 etc... lets see...

Post 282, Cable;



Update;

He he, what did i say earlier....? I'm not here to pick a top! I reckon we could possibly see a top very soon for Dow, wouldn't like to say how significant, just keeping an eye on some fibs converging at 14,070/80 as per previously posted...

That doesn't mean i'm recommending shorting it at that point, trend is up until proved otherwise...