< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Eventually rf there has to be ..
Got to be some cheap oilers about soon

might have to wait for the shale oilers in america to go bust first.......

as per market trends in oil price..........the fact that Dragon have dropped out of Petroceltic suggests that they want to wait for oil price recovery

From over the road
--------------------------

From motley fool..

A toxic combination of management corruption and the falling price of oil has driven Afren (LSE: AFR) shares down by 71% so far this year, to 47p, the lowest level since June 2009.

Many shareholders are probably feeling pretty unhappy: management corruption is always a nasty surprise, and has compounded the effect of the falling oil price.

Bargain valuation?
The independent report into the unauthorised payments made to former directors found that there was “no material loss” to Afren as a result of these transactions. Happily, the evidence we have seen so far suggests that the firm’s operations and the value of its assets have been unaffected by this scandal.

What’s more, analysts’ forecasts for Afren’s earnings have not fallen anywhere near as fast as the firm’s share price.

Although last week’s sudden fall in the price of oil is not yet fully reflected in earnings forecasts for the next couple of years, it’s worth noting that Afren now trades on a 2015 forecast P/E of just 4.

Even if we downgrade next year’s earnings by another 20%, that still leaves Afren shares trading on a forecast P/E of 5, which looks cheap to me.

Potential upside before Q2 2015?
It seems clear to me that if Afren manages to deliver 2014 earnings anywhere near current forecasts, then Afren’s share price could re-rate sharply. Similarly, any rebound in the oil price could lift Afren’s shares quite quickly.

However, it’s important for investors to consider how the firm’s operations and growth plans might be affected if oil prices remain at current levels.

Is Afren still profitable?
In my view, Afren’s operations should remain solidly profitable with oil at $70 per barrel: Afren’s results for the first nine months show that it generated net cash from operating activities of $454.8m on sales of $798.5m, suggesting production costs of around $40 per barrel.

However, it’s clear that next year’s profits will be lower, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the firm scales back some of its planned capital expenditure to prevent a cash crunch.

Is Afren a takeover target?
Afren currently trades at half its book value, despite the proven quality and cash generating potential of its assets.

As such, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bid emerge in the next few months. One possible candidate is Nigerian shareholder South Atlantic Petroleum Limited, which has built a 7% stake in Afren so far this year.

Even without a bid, I believe there are several factors that could drive a strong rebound for Afren shares over the next 3-6 months.

Oil could fall to $40 on Sky news.

maybe, though sooner or later (and which will it be) the cycle will turn once more

Time to buy the stock again ( in an out is profitable over here )

============= 1 month brent oil ============================ 3 month brent oil

----

Perhaps the tide has turned at last,even at these levels a bargain imo?
">

i've bought a few more at 51.0 as it does not look too bad a risk at that level

And what a spike from 49 to 51p, naturally 50p is a very important number on the charting front

I've added a few too. Co say approx 4.8 million barrels are hedged in the period 1/7/14 - 31/12/15 providing minimum floor price of $90 - 95 bbl. Hedge covers about 25 - 35% of estimated production on a rolling basis.
Faroe and Tullow also have hedging in place.
DYOR

Glad to say my buy at 52p doesn't look to bad now........ phew.,.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Lowers Afren Plc to Overweight (AFR)

Posted by Taylor Nule on Dec 1st, 2014 // No Comments


Afren Plc (LON:AFR) was downgraded by stock analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. to an “overweight” rating in a report issued on Monday. They currently have a GBX 69 ($1.08) price target on the stock, down from their previous price target of GBX 137 ($2.14). JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 33.33% from the stock’s previous close.

FLASH: JP Morgan Cazenove cuts Afren to underweight from overweight, target cut from 137p to 69p 1 December 2014 | 10:06am - See more at: hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4933450/FLASH-JP-Morgan-Cazenove-cuts-Afren-to-underweight-from-overweight-target-cut-from-137p-to-69p.html#sthash.LnXeUVcO.dpuf

Looks like its 69p then , maybe ?

Oil taking a hit again,alas.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en

From the Times.


The Kurds and Baghdad have finally ended their bitter feud over how to share Iraq’s oil revenues, sending shares in London-listed Kurdish oil explorers soaring.
After more than five years of squabbling, the two sides have struck an agreement guaranteeing that oil producers in the Kurdish semi-autonomous region of Iraq will be paid in full.
Shares in Genel Energy, the explorer set up by Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP, rose by nearly 10 per cent, and Gulf Keystone’s stock closed up by 15 per cent.
Hoshiyar Zebari, the finance minister of Iraq, described the deal as a “win-win” for Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government.
Baghdad has agreed to allow the Kurds to export 300,000 barrels a day from Kirkuk, the northern city, and another 250,000 barrels a day from the northern Kurdish region through Turkey. In return, the Kurds will receive a 17 per cent share of Iraq’s national budget every month.

U.S. crude was off its Asian session highs but still rose 0.5 percent to $67.21 a barrel, after industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on Tuesday showing U.S. crude stocks fell 6.5 million barrels last week. [API/S]

16:35:10 47.43 1,288,218 UT 47.43 47.46 Sell

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-no-threat-us-oil-174652244.html

The Times

Admittedly, there were more pressing events in oil this week, such as the continuing deterioration in the price, the resulting collapse of the rouble and some daft idea that Royal Dutch Shell might buy BP, but events in the oil-rich Kurdish province of Iraq seem to have been overlooked.
There are four quoted UK companies there. The problem has been getting the oil to the outside world and getting paid for it. The first is well under way; the second logjam appears to have been unblocked.
There were two linked pieces of news. In November, the Kurdish regional government in Erbil, in a largely symbolic gesture, said that it would make a first payment to producers, with further regular sums to come in the new year. This was designed to reassure them, as the province’s oil industry ramps up and capacity in the pipeline into Turkey increases, that further investment would be rewarded.
This week that first payment arrived, $15 million for Gulf Keystone Petroleum for its Shaikan field and $24 million to Genel Energy for its Taq Taq and Tawke fields. Simultaneously, Erbil and Baghdad agreed on a deal to share the country’s oil revenues.
Baghdad would get the revenue from 300,000 barrels a day (bpd) from the Kirkuk field and another 250,000 bpd of Kurdish oil, all exported through the pipeline. Erbil gets a 17 per cent share of the national budget and can keep revenues from however much more it can sell. Total production from the province could hit 500,000 bpd next year.
In the background is the war between both and the Islamic State — as one commentator put it: “There is nothing like a common enemy to get people to settle their disagreements.”
Shares in Gulf Keystone and Genel jumped after the news. The two others are much smaller players. Petroceltic has interests in two blocks, but these are still at the exploration stage. Afren, better known for its African operations, has interests in two fields, including Barda Rash, but production is limited, averaging about 500 bpd in the first half of 2014.
For Gulf Keystone, the breaking of the deadlock allows it to push ahead with its Shaikan field. Production is running at about 40,000 bpd and is taken in lorries north to the town of Fishkhabur on the Turkish border. There are plans to link with the pipeline, perhaps in 2016; the oil from Shaikan is heavy crude and is likely to need some processing.
Shaikan should be producing at 100,000 bpd within a couple of years, but the field will need hefty investment. Some analysts believe that Gulf Keystone will have to raise fresh funds on the stock market. The alternative is bringing in a partner or even an outright bid.
This has been made easier by the Erbil-Baghdad agreement, because big oil companies already operating in the south of the country will be able to take a position in the Kurdish region. One might question, on glancing at the oil price, whether they are in the mood to buy assets.
DNO, the Norwegian company, is also producing in Kurdish Iraq. The biggest British player is Genel. Its cost of production is startlingly cheap, less than $2 a barrel. Genel, where Tony Hayward, the former BP boss, is chief executive, has the most to gain from recent developments. Its oil is high-grade light crude. It is producing, from the two fields, about 250,000 bpd and is owed $180 million for the oil it has exported already. The company has a market capitalisation of £1.7 billion, which would put it in the FTSE 250 index and mean that index-tracking funds would have to invest.
However, because Kurdish Iraq has not hitherto been recognised by Baghdad, the UK Listing Authority has said that the degree of political risk this raises precludes this. The outbreak of amity between Iraq and its breakaway province means this will probably happen in the new year. Genel has set three pre-conditions for a return of excess capital to shareholders. Once payments come through regularly, all three will have been achieved. That return looks likely next year . . . and one day M&A activity will return to the sector.