Gone back into these today as a play on the World Coking Coal market which is forecast to rise and rise with the likes of China, India, Brazil and others eating up any excess supply.
One should note that CDN is now a pure coal play.
Heres a recent article on the company, well worth a read..
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/articles/article.php?CDN3
Good to see from last results aswell that it is now a producer and not just an explorer...
25 June 2007
Caledon Resources plc
('Caledon' or the 'Company')
Preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2006
Caledon Resources plc (AIM: CDN), today announces its preliminary results for
the year ended 31 December 2006.
2006 OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Transition from explorer to producer, supported by a robust operating
asset base and strong management team with experienced coal executives and
operators.
On 14 December 2006 the Company acquired the Cook Coal Mine and adjacent
Minyango deposit located in Queensland, Australia. At the Cook mine, SRK
Engineering has estimated that there is at least 40 million tonnes ('mt') of
recoverable coking and thermal coal representing 17mt of reserve and 23mt of
resource. Production commenced in March 2007 and is anticipated to grow over
a period of three years to 1.8mt per annum.
An independent competent person's report on Cook Coal Mine indicates strong
expected life of mine economics: pre-tax Net Present Value of US$256 million
using a 10% discount rate; cash flows of US$30 to US$67 million; 10 year
coking/thermal coal reserve and 20 years of coal resource.
Exploration is well advanced at the Minyango coal project situated
immediately north of the Cook lease. The Company has completed 15 drill
holes, in addition to the 65 previously completed on the project, in a
programme designed to further define coal quality, coal seam continuity and
seam thickness of the deposit. On 14 March 2007 the Company announced the
completion of a resource estimate by SRK Engineering increasing the size of
the Minyango resource by 17% to 240mt (JORC) coking and thermal coal of
which 75mt is indicated and 165mt is inferred.
Eldorado warrants exercised and resulting shares sold generating proceeds
of 2.5 million before tax.
Caledon places 12.5 million unsecured convertible loan notes subject to
approval at an EGM to be held on 5 July 2007.
AND
If we look at the World Coking coal market we find this...
Coking coal market
Global Basic Oxygen Furnace steel production is reliant on coking coal. Coking
coal is used to produce coke, which is a key feedstock in the blast furnace
process required to smelt iron in the process of making steel products.
Approximately 0.6 tonnes of coke is required to make 1 tonne of steel.
According to the World Coal Institute, almost 66% of total global steel
production depends on inputs of coal. 592mt of coking coal and PCI coals are
used annually in global steel production. China accounted for most of the recent
increase in world steel production, with 2005 production increasing by 25%. The
USA, India and the rest of the world rank behind China in terms of world steel
production. Due to the current constraints in coking coal supply, steel
producers are seeking long term coking coal supply, with many choosing to
participate in financing actual coking coal production.
The continued growth of steel production in Asia has seen an increasing number
of Indian and Chinese investments in the Australian resource sector.
Additionally, CVRD of Brazil (the world's largest iron ore exporter) has
acquired coking coal interests in Australia. A comparative table of the major
coking coal exporters below demonstrates the strength of the Australian based
producers.
Leading coking coal exporters
Year Australia Canada USA China
2003 103.1 22.0 20.0 11.5
2004 111.4 21.5 24.5 5.7
2005 119.8 25.1 26.0 5.6
Japan is the largest and Korea the second largest importer of coking coal. Rapid
industrial growth in China has resulted in China actively decreasing coal
exports to feed internal consumption. As a result China is anticipated to become
a net importer of coking coal in 2007. India is also seeking to secure future
supplies of coking coal and Indian companies are actively seeking coking coal
assets in Australia to supply rapid steel production growth.
Approximately 50% of the world's sea-borne coking coal comes from the Bowen
Basin, where the Company's coal assets are situated. Over 30 major mining
operations, owned primarily by major multi-national resource producers such as
BHP-Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Anglo, are currently active within the
basins. Over 100mt of coking coal was exported from the Bowen Basin in 2005-06.
AND
Market Price looks stable or even better....
Coking coal price
Contract prices for coking coal are generally negotiated in the first quarter of
each year and are fixed for the April to March 12 month period. Japan is the
largest importing country and the contract duration coincides with their
financial year. Settlements in Japan are also the reference point for
negotiations between coal producers and customers in other countries.
Current outlook
For the contract year beginning in April 2007, coking coal prices fell by
approximately US$20/t (to the mid US$90's) for the premium brands and often more
than that for the lower quality coals. However, as 2007 has progressed, the
market has tightened due to rail and port constraints in Australia (and to a
lesser extent in Canada), combined with increasing demand from India and China.
This is putting upward pressure on prices as customers compete for the limited
volume of coal that is not already committed to customers under annual
contracts. While it is more than six months away from the annual negotiating
season, many analysts are now forecasting a significant recovery in 2008
contract prices.ENDS
I reckon theres plenty of upside in this one (and other coal producers)and as production ramps up I expect to see a re rating of the stock.
- Market Cap 57.5m
- Shares In Issue 154.36m
- Beta 0.94
- Price To Book 1.7
- SP 37.25p
- Covering Analyst Canaccord Adams
- Web Site
http://www.caledonresources.com/WebForms/Home.aspx
DYOR.