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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:25 - 270 of 504

why do you want to e mail me ?

or why would I want you to e mail me ??

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:25 - 271 of 504

well i know that minor barb was not aimed at me!

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:26 - 272 of 504

do i perceive huffy-puffy, huffy-puffy!

maggiebt4 - 30 Jul 2007 21:27 - 273 of 504

Sorry to interrupt but would some kind soul take another look at EMG I am hoping that the 200 MA (despite what I've just read about it) may prove support for the sp. Am now in too far to bale out unless there's no bottom to this. Any thoughts, tips, advice, other than throwing myself off a tall building, gratefully recieved.

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:29 - 274 of 504

ah maggie .... that one is PT special .... please don't throw yourself from anywhere, though i must say the markets are very brittle and volatile for the moment and may well stay that way for a month or two

however, EMG is damn good company and, with Dow having had a good day and EMG sp just hitting 200 dma, it would not be at all surprising to see a good bounce tomorrow ...... i know there was a reason for EMG's fall, but did not read the article

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:30 - 275 of 504

maggie

dont listen to anything posted on a bb lol

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:33 - 276 of 504

one does not listen to a BB; one reads!

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:36 - 277 of 504

child

maggiebt4 - 30 Jul 2007 21:37 - 278 of 504

Hope not Cynic. Dynamix, was reading your thoughts on TA on Falklands thread but I suppose I'll have to bear your last comment in mind now. Thanks

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:40 - 279 of 504

yeah. but the chart dont lye

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 21:41 - 280 of 504

by the way ..... "Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies, that thou mightest still the enemy and the avenger" ...... Psalm 8: 1-2

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:47 - 281 of 504

?

ptholden - 30 Jul 2007 21:50 - 282 of 504

maggie, having a look for you now. Whatever else he may be Dynamix is quite correct in stating you shouldn't listen to anything on BBs. What you should do is learn which posters talk sense and which talk utter crap. When you have worked that out use their information to your best advantage or not at all.

dynamix - 30 Jul 2007 21:53 - 283 of 504

he ?

cynic - 30 Jul 2007 22:17 - 284 of 504

peter .... u have e ..... re golf!

ptholden - 30 Jul 2007 22:27 - 285 of 504

Reply on the way :)

ptholden - 30 Jul 2007 22:53 - 286 of 504

maggie, EMG isn't going to be easy to predict now until the markets stabilise. I'm not sure if there is other information in the public domain that is affecting EMG other than the general turbulence, but from a TA perspective not only did the SP fall out of the short term steeper channel it has also fallen out of the shallower channel, so the trend that has been so reliable since Oct last year has been broken. It will take sometime for a new trend to establish. Until then best we can do is try and find support levels from the chart. The 200MA can provide support to a falling SP, although it is not something I especially rely on. There is also SP support at its current level from the last few months, so perhaps there may be a bounce from here. The RSI is currently sitting at 35 and over the last year EMG has rarely dipped below the 30 level so possibly the pace of the sell off may be decreasing, certainly the volume was slightly lighter today. I have had a look at some other indicators which would suggest that the SP is approaching oversold, but stocks can be oversold for quite some time.

Worse case scenario: if the current level fails there is support at roughly 20p increments all the way down to 460p. I have drawn a much shallower trendline from April 06 which would also provide support at 460p ish depending on when (if) it gets there.

Sorry I can't be more positive or more help, but from this chart I certainly wouldn't trade or invest until there is more direction from the markets generally. I could take a 50/50 gamble and say there will be a recovery tomorrow, but I have to be honest and say I can't be certain.

My own style is to look for trending stocks, with proven (as much as can be) support and resistance levels, trendlines and supporting indicators, EMG at the moment doesn't fit the bill :(

pth

maggiebt4 - 30 Jul 2007 23:36 - 287 of 504

Thanks again PTH for taking the time to reply I sort of thought as much myself. Apparently the Chairman 'stepped aside' announced on 27th and this is affecting the sp. Unfortunately I'm in now, will see what tomorrow brings :O(((((

M

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 08:21 - 288 of 504

EMG - perhaps more by luck (strong US last night) than judgement, i see sp has (conveniently) bounced straight off notional 200 dma support .... still reckon this is a good compnay and in the long(er) run for sure i don't reckon maggie will suffer at all

maggiebt4 - 31 Jul 2007 10:58 - 289 of 504

Just as I was climbing to the top of that building things turned blue. Would agree with your thoughts Cynic now it has to stay there. Sadly the more you loose the more you have to crawl back. Another hard lesson, should have cut losses when dipped below 600. Think I'll be dead before I get the hang of this game :o)
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