Buy Healthcare Locums - argues Rob Cullum, editor of TrendWatch

One key principle that underlies the TrendWatch investment strategy is that we normally only ever recommend shares that have just started a new uptrend. For the first time since the global credit crisis blew up, weve been forced to research more mature uptrends to find shares that satisfy our high standards. Fortunately, weve found a good un.

It wont be news to many investors that healthcare staffing in the UK is big business, but its quite an eye-opener nevertheless to be reminded just how big. The most recent figures available indicate that the staffing market was on course for an annual total of 5 billion.

Apart from the sheer size of the NHS, a number of factors contribute towards this huge figure: the desire for more flexible working conditions by staff, past failures to invest in the training of a sufficient number of specialist staff, the implementation of the Working Time Directive. But lying behind all of these are the demands of an ageing population, medical advances and also the fact that the vast sums sucked into administration actually seem to boost the need for external support, rather than the reverse.

The NHS accounts for around 45% of the total spend, but with another figure of 45% emanating from the provision of homecare staff. Demand for recruitment services provided by private-enterprise intermediaries such as Healthcare Locums is unlikely to be threatened by superbly organised and far-sighted direct recruitment policies of the client organisations such as the NHS, if you catch our drift.

Healthcare Locums, now four years old, is a group supplying specialist healthcare professionals to both the NHS and the private healthcare sector.

Its ruling ethos is the focus on higher-margin, longer-term specialist staff such as doctors, social workers and allied health professionals (AHPs), rather than the placement of nurses, for example. Working from two call-centres the group avoids the requirement for a costly high-street presence. The admission document argued that being able to supply staff nationwide without a local branch network enabled higher margins still.

This ethos means that, whilst it has lower volumes, there is a higher average transaction value and, in general, placements are longer term. Demand is not as immediate; and the overheads to service this market are therefore lower. It has an expanding database of registered locums across all specialties. Nearly half of these placed by the company at the time of its original flotation were from overseas; and the company had established an international recruitment division with 23 international partners across Europe, the Middle East, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, the USA and Canada. This is a two-way trade placement outside the UK is a growing area of business.


On flotation, it comprised four discrete significant entities, brought together through acquisition.

the decade-old Thames Medics, a specialist in providing GPs, doctors and psychiatrists to the NHS and private hospitals. This was followed by
Eurosite Medical, a provider of AHPs to the same client groups. Then came
Medical Technical, a specialist in support staff (plaster technicians, sterile services technicians, phlebotomists and the like). This added scale, and also reach, enabling the group to access the supply of operating theatre technicians. Finally
Recruitment Specialist Group extended coverage to qualified social workers.
In November 2005 the company raised 13m at 55p. Six months into public life, it bought BBL for a total consideration of 10.5m, with 5.0m immediately payable in cash (financed by banking facilities) and a further 3m to be satisfied at completion by the issue of ordinary shares. 75% of BBL's income came from recruitment of hospital doctors; most of the rest came from recruitment of GPs.

After almost exactly a year as a public company, it raised 16m in the market at the same 55p price to acquire Blue Group, one of the leading qualified social-work agencies in the UK, for a maximum of 14m - with 10m payable in cash on completion. Blue Group's turnover in 2006 was 36m, and it was reckoned to have 15% of the market in Qualified Social Work (QSW) agencies. The acquisition was a three-way fit: First, Blue also had no branch network; the plan was to integrate the call centres. Second, the back-office integration was expected save 1m a year, starting in 2007. Third, it would help Healthcare Locums' intent of achieving a 33% split between its three core markets - AHPs, doctors and QSWs.

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This history makes the most recent figures for the 100m company irrelevant but the forecasts compelling (see table below).

2006 2007 2008*
Revenue (m) 64.63 144.1 169.50
Pre-tax profit (m) 1.08 12.40 16.90
Earnings per share (p) 7.10 9.00 12.30
Dividend per share (p) - 1.50 2.60

*Forecast
The main figure of interest in the 2006 accounts was the 16% organic growth. But the picture was clouded because it coincided with another substantial acquisition, JCT Locums, for 5.5m cash.

Current trading is robust and in line with management expectations, with one of the key drivers still being that of organic growth. The company is now market leader in each those three specialist divisions (AHPs, doctors and QSWs), and is very close to delivering the one-third income split targeted by the board. It says it will now cease strategic acquisitions so as to concentrate on integration.

The chief executive and 10% shareholder is Kate Bleasdale, a former nurse (ironic, given that her company avoids the nursing recruitment market). More importantly, however, shes a first-class businesswomen with a distinguished entrepreneurial history, and (by way of a footnote) a record-holder for the award of 2.2m damages when she sued her previous company for sex discrimination.

Performance to date has been dazzling; but it we should recognise that, with 13 acquisitions all told, this has, in a sense, been the easy bit. And with debt now running at 34m, up to nearly 6m to be paid out by way of deferred consideration and 67% of sales emanating from the NHS, the company may be a bit boxed-in.

Nevertheless, heading for earnings per share of 9p this year and 12.3p next works out to 12 times earnings in immediate prospect, falling to about 8.5 next year. These numbers leave plenty of medium-term price headroom. BUY

Yep - been watching!

Where to now skinny? Already back sub 160p. Would be nice to see a firm uptrend.

Approaching the bottom again! Tempted to buy around this level for another bounce.

Interesting article I just found on the web......

HCL buys demonstrates confidence in sector, says Bleasdale
Fri, 16 Jul 2010

Kate Bleasdale, HCL
Healthcare recruiter Healthcare Locums (HCL) new acquisitions are a sign of its confidence in the healthcare sector and the governments commitment to continue to safeguard front-line resources from public sector cuts, according to Kate Bleasdale, executive deputy chairman of HCL.

HCL has entered into conditional agreements to acquire the entire issued share capital of UK specialist nursing and healthcare staffing locum business Orion, the business and assets of Australian medical staffing business LML and, subject to shareholder approval, the business and assets of specialist nursing locum recruiter Redwood Health.


.Bleasdale told Recruiter: These acquisitions demonstrate our confidence in the NHS and the governments commitment to fund front-line resources. There are huge demographic forces at play that require concerted investment in health professional staffing. The acquisitions also reflect our significant commitment to our international markets which are expanding at a fast pace.

HCL is placing of 7,333,334 new ordinary shares at a placing price of 150p per share to raise funds of 11m before expenses, subject to admission to trading on the Stock Exchange.

The proceeds of the placing shall be used to finance the acquisitions of Orion and Australian medical staffing business LML Business.

Meanwhile, Redwood Health is being acquired for an initial consideration of 5m together with potential payments of up to a further 1.65m to be paid dependent on the future performance of the business. This acquisition is subject to shareholder approval and the provision of the appropriate debt finance and requires the approval of shareholders pursuant to section 190 of the Companies Act due to the fact that Bleasdales husband, John Cariss, owns 99% of the ultimate shareholder of Redwood, Cardale Investments.

http://www.recruiter.co.uk/hcl-buys-demonstrates-confidence-in-sector-says-bleasdale/1006261.article

Recent Broker Buy note out aswell according to source trading on a forward P/E of just over 6 going into 2011

Healthcare Locums PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
09-09-10 BUY 31.02 20.74 8.00 45.54 28.89 10.50

In fact Broker Coolins Stewart has a BUY note out which more or less forecasts the stock will double.........

16-Jul-10 Collins Stewart Buy 155.00p 305.00p -

305p SP target.

But for the time being, lower highs & lower lows.

"Further to the Company's announcement of 2nd August 2010, Healthcare Locums plc confirms that it will be announcing interim results for the six months to 30th June 2010 on Monday 27th September 2010."

Interim Results.

Financial Highlights

Revenue of 76.4m (Restated 2009: 85.6m)

Adjusted EBITDA(1) of 9.6m (Restated 2009: 11.0m)

Adjusted operating profit(2) of 9.3m (Restated 2009: 10.7m)

Broadly stable adjusting operating profit margin(2) of 12.2%

Operating profit of 7.6m (Restated 2009: 9.5m)

Profit before tax of 6.8m (Restated 2009: 8.6m)

Basic earnings per share of 4.8 pence (Restated 2009: 6.0 pence)

Adjusted basic earnings per share(3) of 5.9 pence (Restated 2009: 6.8 pence)

Net debt reduced to 14.5m (Y/E 2009: 17.3m)

Increased interim dividend declared of 1.8p (2009: 1.6p)

Currently down 12%

Healthcare Locums H1 profit heads lower
Mon 27 Sep 2010

Healthcare Locums 132.00p -12.29%

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Specialist health and social care business Healthcare Locums reported a decline in half year pre-tax profit after the new coalition government slashed NHS spending.

The staffing agency said pre-tax profit fell to 6.8m for the six months ended 30 June 2010 from a restated 8.6m in 2009. Revenue dropped to 76.4m from 85.6m previously.

Its UK and International Permanent Placements division saw a strong performance with first half revenues up by 57% to 3.3m from a restated 2.1m in 2009. Gross profit surged by 120% to 3.3m.

The group also reduced its cost base by around 1.5m compared with the same period last year.

The group said uncertainty surrounding government spending priorities is a short to medium term situation.

"We expect that the UK government's stated commitment to maintaining front line services will improve trading in the second half of 2010," said executive vice chairman Kate Bleasdale.

Underling its confidence in future trading the group has increased its interim dividend to 1.8p from 1.6p the same time a year before.

In auction again.

the game seems to be up following disappointing results, hope they have sorted out their accounting.

I've had a small punt @118.......

Hopeless! Kate has taken her eye off the ball!

28 September 2010


Healthcare Locums Plc
(the "Company")

Director's Shareholding

Healthcare Locums plc has been notified that Kate Bleasdale, Executive Vice
Chairman of the Company has today purchased 50,000 ordinary shares of 10p each
in the Company at a price of 119p per share.

The total beneficial holding of Kate Bleasdale following this transaction is
12,107,854 ordinary shares of 10p each which represents approximately 10.74% of
the Company's issued share capital.

Even she is averaging down!!! ;o)

:-)

Directors buying 4000 or 5000 shares is not going to boost huge confidence. It is pittance.

EK seems to be shorting HLO...