Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

nice blue day today on the back of a sell recomendation from the Chronic Investor :-)

Fund
Hi, have you got any views on ser I'm down at the moment but not worried. Have a look at the link

http://www.oilbarrel.com/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1166407248&feed=oilbarrel_en

haven't followed this share, though i always thought it a good company ...... for what it's worth, sp has niow poked its head above 50 dma ....... unless IC had something trenchant to say, i see no reason to sell, though prob no reason to buy as <10% from high which it has failed to break through twice




red = 50 dma
green = 200 dma

cynic
Ive never seen a reason to sell what ever the chart says been holding since 120p

cynic

from a TA perspective, its a short term neutral chart, long term its in a strong uptrend.

Current reasons to hold/buy for me are based on the fundies, predominantly the production increases in the north sea taking it to 40,000 boepd end of 2007, the potential from an expansive drilling campaign across the next few years (Kenya the next big announcement i expect) and the cash generation and growth and reinvestment of this cash (usual through purchasing more north sea assets). Also would expect news on the Gaz de France deal (though this has been dragging its feet).

Like Driver have been holding this for approx 4 years and see no reason not to continue to do with he potential upside being far greater than any downside. Also like others I expect there to be a fair bit of consolidation in the oil sector over the next year or two and DNX could be either predator or prey

can't disagree with you .... for my sins, i hold TLW and BUR for similar reasons, and that is sufficient for me ...... and as i keep telling everyone, i am also a fan of PFC which keeps coming up with the goodies month after month

Against my better wishes i sold out yesterday, just too much downward pressure on the oil price currently and the P&F chart gave a very strong sell signal. Support at 1130 is struggling to hold and without any good drill news and a continuing weak oil price, P&F chart shows a potential fall back to 900p.

Still like the long term outlook but hard to hold against weak oil prices. I will get back in just a question of timing, if i miss a positive drill result ill just have to take it on the chin as the risk reward balance isnt right for me currently

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North Sea Asset Exchange 5 January 2006

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20070105152426M0716.html

Don't hold here, never have and always wanted to!

Now then the word is that is pomboo and sockwe are dusters the sp may visit 10 again, conversely if either is a success, then the reverse may happen and it may visit 16 to who knows what.

Not very inspired I know, but I would add that the JVP are drilling in proven areas it's just a matter of hope that either prospect has oil or at worst gas.

Marathon and Shell drilled within the license areas in the 1950's and 1970's.

As you all so rightly say if you are LTBH who cares what turbulence there is in the market place?

Mind you I would only apply that theory to decent oilers like BUR DNX TLW, I suppose I should include BP. and RDS, but I am not really inclined to.

Good luck with those drills I have highlighted, I may benefit indirectly if they come off, as I have AEX who have some part of licenses next door at L11 & 12 and any result by rights should impact either way but with less force.

Petrel Resources (PET) Asked if nationalistic Iraq, resenting the US & global oilcos, is grooming PET into
a "BIG BEAST". DH replied: "that is exactly what is happening"

Oil Down And Out Not Likely

http://www.fatprophets.co.uk/content.aspx?page=OIL%2c+Fat+167

FUNDY ..... not as pessimistic as you, though i c from where you got your support ..... much more simplistically, one could also argue support at about 1100, again at 1000, and of course at 900

Elliott Wave Analysis 04-Jan-2007 Crude Oil

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LoUPapbyEU&mode=related&search=

Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction' (Update6)

http://www.bloomberg.co.uk/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azQIiqfEPt8g&refer=home

cynic

not pessimistic as such about the companies prospects just where the markey may take it on falling oil prices, any closer to 1000p and ill be looking to start to buy back in, cant see oil going much below $50 and certainly only short term if it does

VPC trading update last week gave a good guide to how some of the north sea oil fields that dana have a share in performed

Oil surges on US plan to boost stockpile

Tue 23 Jan, 2007 20:19


By Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil jumped over 4 percent to $55 a barrel on Tuesday as the United States announced plans to build up its emergency crude reserves and as colder weather pushed up demand in the world's top consumer.

U.S. crude last traded up $2.42 to $55.00 a barrel after trading as high as $55.15 earlier. London Brent crude was up $2.31 at $55.01.

U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman announced the government will buy 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil over a few months starting in the spring to add 11 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

In addition, President George W. Bush plans to call for a doubling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's capacity in his State of the Union speech Tuesday, the White House said.

"The market has turned a corner here. The plans to expand the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve seems to have been recognised as a bullish factor," Tim Evans, Citigroup Global Markets.

"The government can spin it any way they like, but the history, from the 1970's on, is very clear. During periods when the reserve is being increased, prices tend to rise."

U.S. President George W. Bush is also expected to announce Tuesday plans to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 percent over 10 years and encourage development of alternative fuels to help wean the United States off foreign oil.

PRICE REBOUND

Warm U.S. temperatures in early January pushed crude to an 19-month low of $49.90 last week from over $61 a barrel in late December. But prices began to rebound as winter weather hit the U.S. Northeast, the largest heating oil market.

"There's a slow shift towards a focus on colder weather, and we may look back on this and see that a bottom in the market was being put in, but it's too early to tell," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at Fimat USA.

OPEC ministers believe the market will stabilise once it feels the full effect of the cartel's 1.7 million barrels per day output reduction. Oil has fallen 32 percent from its $78.40 record in July.

OPEC President Mohammed al-Hamli said a reasonable price for the group's crude basket is $55 a barrel -- at least $5 higher than the current level for the reference price, which is valued at a $5-$6 discount to U.S. crude.

"We are not panicking...concerned, I think, because we are embarking on huge investment programs and the price in that respect is very important because of the outlays," he said on Tuesday.

A poll of analysts ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data to be released on Wednesday showed the colder weather would likely caused an 800,000 barrel draw in distillate stocks, including heating oil.

The data was expected to show a 1.1 million barrel rise in crude stocks, a 1.3 million barrel build in gasoline inventories, and a 0.4 percentage point fall in refinery runs.

very good timing for dana after pomboo being another duster

Any reason why this is down so much today other than general weakness?

crockham
Yes general weakness, the price of crude, on LBC money slot today there was a money manager saying you will not see these prices for much longer now is the time to pile into oil stocks I agree it's only a matter of time before the inevitable bounce.

Merrill Lynch's latest note downgraded second half EPS expectations to 50p. This is based upon the lower than expected production from GKA (as per Ventures announcement), however they also said they expected reserve upgrades and have a target price of 1550p based on its NAV calcs.

Another factor imo is the lack of information released direct from Dana (always been a problem imo). Its often a case of finding out details through JV partners announcements and a lack of a trading update is disappointing