Epic : CDN

Web Site : http://www.caledonresources.com

Broker Note 1st Aug 2007 : http://www.caledonresources.com/Images/FileManager/192.pdf


About Caledon: Caledon is quoted on the London AIM market (Ticker: CDN). In 2006, the Company acquired two Australian coal projects; the Cook mine and the Minyango coal project, both situated in the Bowen Basin, Queensland. The Cook mine is host to a mineable reserve of 17 Mt of coking and thermal coal with a 10 year mine plan. On 21 March 2007, Caledon announced commencement of production at the Cook mine with targeted output to reach a 100,000 tonnes per month rate by the end of 2007 and 1.5 million tonnes per annum in 2008. On 14 March 2007, the neighbouring Minyango project resource was brought to a JORC standard of 240 million tonnes which was an increase of 17% on original estimates. Caledons aim is to develop the Minyango project to potentially increase the Companys production in the near-term to accompany its already producing Cook mine project.

**********************************

Caledon Resources PLC Interview With:
Mark Trevan Managing Director

Dated September 20, 2007

http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/page.php?page=featured&id=26736

Sept 23 (Reuters) - Sept 23 (Reuters) - British coal miner Caledon Resources
Plc on Tuesday said Polo Resources Ltd upped its stake in the company to about
55 million shares, or 26.3 percent, from about 54 million shares.
Australian coal investment company Polo has been gradually raising its
interest in Caledon since March, when it bought 11 million shares, or a stake of
over 6 percent.
cyril

Well the case for Coking Coal imo is overwhelming, so i've bought back in today.
cyril

New York (Platts)--13th Oct2008

A major US producer has settled the majority of 2009 metallurgical coal
contracts with buyers of domestic steel makers at average prices above the
2008 benchmark of $300/metric ton for Australian hard coal.

Low-volatile premium coal settled around $300/short ton FOB mine, which is a
FOB port equivalent of about $380/mt, including transportation charges
estimated at $40/st, confirmed US mining executives.

Premium high-vol coking coal of 30-32 volatile matter was settled at
$260-$265/st while generic high-vol material with VM of more than 34 was
priced at $200-$220/st, said one source.

The contraction in economic output is expected to reduce steel demand, a
source at a major coking coal producer said last week.

The difference in prices between premium low-vol material and generic lower
quality high-vol coal is widening as increased coking coal production has led
to some coking coal companies accepting poorer quality materials and supply of
low-vol coal remains constrained, a mining executive said.

"The extra high-vol to meet demand has been the poorer quality," he said.
"We're expecting the differential between higher- and poor-quality coal to
widen."

About 75% of his company's domestic sales volume for 2009 has been contracted
already, with some tonnage priced based on multi-year contracts.

Buyers agreeing to higher prices

"It's probably too early to predict where those ranges will end up on the
seaborne side in 2009 since many buyers don't have contracts expiring until
the end of the first quarter of 2009," said one US met coal veteran. "However,
the strong signal coming out of the US is that prices for Appalachian-quality
hard coking coals are holding up very well.

"The vast majority [of buyers] are committing; some are holding back in
anticipation of economic events leading to lower prices," the US executive
said. "From now to the end of the year, domestic customers are still
scrambling for spot coal."

The prices miners have received come in the face of recent large declines in
steel prices for products and spot iron ore that some market sources say may
end up infecting the coking coal market and lead to lower term prices for
contracts starting in April 2009, under which the bulk of output is sold.

Last week, two commodity analysts cut forecasts for average coking coal prices
in 2009 and 2010 following upheaval in the global financial markets, a
stronger US dollar and weaker commodities demand from China. They predicted
the average yearly price for premium hard coking coal at $230-$250/mt FOB for
2009 and $190/mt FOB in 2010, down from $300-$305/mt forecast for 2008.

US miners at the end of 2007 settled coking coal term contracts for the 2008
calendar year with domestic customers at around $110/mt FOB mine before global
supply tightness led spot prices to surge.

Australia-based BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance, the largest seaborne coking
coal exporter, settled term contract prices for the Japanese fiscal year
starting April 1 at around $300/mt, with most other producers getting similar
prices, even though Xstrata held out and achieved a higher average price of
$362/mt for its term contracts.
cyril

Topped up this am. 14.9p seems silly?
aimho
cyril

Although not intending to add, i still feel this is well undervalued at 19p?
cyril

Just a moment ago the stockwatch showd 20p/20p 0% spread, it is now 22/21.75p, up 41%. No idea why this sudden rise which even today is spectacular,
perhaps Polo are topping up?
cyril

Polo Resources has a bright future and is way under-valued.

Yes i agree that polo are worth looking at now, its been worked out that the
value is worth over 4p alone for their holdings in CDN and GCM. Of course with the Mongolian assets which we are led to believe will show profit this quarter, couple that with cash inhand makes it undervalued.
Back to CDN and todays rise, trading around 28p is stunning and just goes to show that its possible to pick up some real bargains at present.
cyril

Yes i agree that polo are worth looking at now, its been worked out that the
value is worth over 4p alone for their holdings in CDN and GCM + cash. Of course with the Mongolian assets which we are led to believe will show profit this quarter, makes it well undervalued.
Back to CDN and todays rise, trading around 28p is stunning and just goes to show that its possible to pick up some real bargains at present.
cyril

Holders should enjoy this well researched article by Wendy Durham;

Click HERE

boiler room shut down boys?

transco are you suggesting CDN and POLO run by a boiler room?

Operational Update and Closure of London Office


2008 sales forecast 460,000t

2009 sales guidance revised down due to market outlook

London office to be closed and functions transferred to Brisbane office

In an analyst presentation posted on the Caledon website on 18 November 2008 the Company forecast saleable production of 500kt for 2008 and 900kt for 2009.

Due to production constraints the Company's revised sales forecast for 2008 is now 460kt.

In addition, due to the very significant deterioration in the market outlook for coking coal over the past month, the Company is now revising its 2009 production target downwards. In this regard the Company now believes it is prudent to forecast a minimum of 400kt of saleable production for 2009, with greater sales possible if market conditions improve. The Company's immediate focus is on cost reduction and cash conservation.

In line with this focus, the Board has decided to transfer the functions currently performed within the Company's London office to existing finance staff in Brisbane and terminate the lease on its Hudson House offices. This decision will result in the redundancy of three staff in London.

cyril

Not suggesting anything pal.
Look at whats happened - what do you think.
Was this ever ever worth more than 30p?

RNS possible bid coming?

An update on that bid, of sorts? In their latest RNS.
cyril

Further to the Press Release of 19 January 2009 regarding a possible offer, the Company has engaged RBC Capital Markets to conduct a strategic review which will include soliciting further interest in the Company and its assets (the 'Process'). Prior to commencement of the Process the Company had discussions with several parties, one of which provided the Company with a non-binding, conditional written indication of interest at a level significantly in excess of the current market price. The Process is in its early stages and RBC has recently made formal contact with several potentially interested parties. There is no certainty as to the terms and structure of any such transaction nor that an offer will be made for the company as a result of the Process. Shareholders are advised to take no action at this time. Any further announcement will be made as appropriate.

Also from results;

Highlights

First ever profit from operations - A$26.8m in 2H08, with full year net profit A$8.2m

Basic earnings per share of 4.3 cents (2007: loss per share 23 cents)

Strong financial footing: year-end cash on hand A$44.2m

Outstanding convertible notes down from 27.5m to 18m

Final payment made on Minyango


Summary of results

Year ended

31.12.08

A$ million
Year ended

31.12.07

A$ million

Revenue


121.9
15.2

Cost of coal sales


(82.5)
(37.8)

Gross profit\(loss) (see note 1)


39.4
(22.6)

Net profit\(loss) for the year


8.2
(34.5)

Basic EPS - cents


4.3
(23.0)

Cash at bank


44.2
24.0

cyril

Over 1m bought so far,it seems the news has sparked off real interest, certainly
in my case as i bought back this am and i'm already in profit.
cyril

From a FT article published 11th march,
Caledon Resources added 4.4 per cent to 18p on talk one of its big shareholders might sell its stake to a Chinese bidder.

So the Chinese are sniffing around?

cyril

As you can see copied from another board,it was my intention to highlight the late rise in the SP, but this covers the point.


This from LSE site, will be adding Monday especially as the buggers put this in auction for the last 13 mins of trading on Friday.

"Shares in Caledon Resources (LSE:CDN) hit a rich seam closing at 26p as talk of a 125 million bid did the rounds. The shares which have fallen from a high of over 150p were well traded throughout the day on persistant chatter that major shareholder Polo Resources (LSE:PRL) was at last ready to make an offer in the region of for the rest of the shares it does not own." This from last month also backs up the above but I don't think it will be PRL, my money is on Peabodys of the U.S who have openly declared they want to expand into Australia to start serving the Chinese coal market. Time to pile in Monday I do believe.


With a M/Cap of 55m,this is roughly 2.5 times the present SP. It should be remembered that it is in BID notification at present.

cyril