Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.

Well a big riser first one in 11 working days, Mediwatch now up nearlly 23% and still rising. Just cant find why. Anyone have ant clue????????.

cheers GF.

Hi goldfinger,

Thanks for very interesting article written by Robert Fletcher.
However,do you not think the overriding situation is terrorism?I think the U.K.
will suffer a major terrorist attack on a soft target within the next couple
of months.This is one of the main reasons my FTSE target is very low as I
believe the financial markets will be effected in a very negative way.

Any opinions ?
rgds aj

It is possible ajren that the world in the years to come gets so used to these terror attacks that the indicies wont be affected, that is what really worries me.

cheers Gf.

You could be right.Chilling thought.You know I live in Spain.Every night Spanish
t.v.shows very graphic pictures of Madrid and interviews a victims family member.This brings home the human element and makes everything especially sad.
rgds aj

Still holding all my Datacash and Armour, love the rollout potential of Datacash and think the institutions still very keen on Armour Group.

Tend to agree there hawick. Datacash in paticular is a world leader in its field.

cheers GF.

Opened two new postions today on the back of the economic boom in China and resurging Japanese economy. Was afraid that China was overheating and that inflation might kick in but two reports this weekend one in the FT have set my mind at rest.
The first is Zincox ZOX, and the second is a coal miner who export to this part of the world the coking coal they require for the building of the infrastructure, Anglo Pacific,APF. Coal prices are going up around the world (the new black gold)and this weekend I have carried out a search of all the coal miners here.

Uk Coal looked good on the exterior until I had found out that all its coal as been sold for this year and half of next year at yes you guessed a lower fixed price already agreed it does however have a lot of property ant that alone with NAV is just below the market price. BHP Billiton looks to be really booming but the market cap put me off and Bisichi is too small an operator and mines in South Africa.

Heres an excelent broker note albeit a month old thats certainly worth reading. Interesting point about nickel, in short supply for 2 years. Guess whats floating on wednesday and is near to bringing the stuff out of the ground on a commercial basis.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/brokers_archive/2004/feb-2004/paterson260204.htm

cheers GF

Brokers note from above opened out.

cheers GF.

Brokers Crumbs

Date: February 26, 2004



Aussie Broker Patersons Produces Some Interesting Recommendations In Its Latest Resources Review.

A most interesting tome has just dropped on Minews’ desk from Patersons in Australia. It is the brokers’ Resources Review dated February 2004 so is bang up to date. Even so metal prices are moving around so fast that it is difficult to produce a 113 page booklet which is right on the button. In general terms, however, Patersons see nickel and gold as early industrial production cycle plays; copper , lead and other precious metals apart from gold are mid-cycle commodities; and zinc and alumiunium are late cycle participants. Copper, lead, silver and platinum have certainly been on the move, but the brokers think they may have further to go and are definite bulls of zinc.

Patersons’ analysts envisage substantial upside in the zinc price and point to new galvanising lines which are being commissioned in China as industrial production continues to gather pace. They admit that official inventories are still pretty high at around 700,000 tonnes, but expect a rapid drawdown of this due to the lack of intermediate products. Such a view is very much in line with that of Andrew Woollett, managing director of AIM listed ZincOx who reckons that the price will really take off once inventories fall below 630,000 tonnes, but the present price of US$1250/tonne is well ahead of the US$745/tonne of a year ago. Lead has also performed well and this is seen as an added positive for zinc producers as it is frequently a by-product credit.

The list of preferred zinc stocks includes Perilya, with its strong balance sheet and undervalued exploration and project development portfolio, and CBH Resources which used to be known as Consolidated Broken Hill. Patersons duly admit to being lead manager to Perilya’s placement back in July 2002 which raised A$10 million for the company and see it as an asset rich company currently underpinned by the Broken Hill lead-zinc mine. Net cash and liquids amount to A$22.7 million and it has a suite of projects which include the Daisy Milano gold mine. The operational performance at Broken Hill was below par in the December quarter and the current quarter has been hit by a haulage shaft blockage, but the mine is expected to contribute a stormer from now on as productivity initiatives are bedded down.

CBH is given credit for bedding down the acquisition of the Endeavor lead zinc mine very quickly and efficiently. The timing was exactly right in terms of the lead and zinc prices though these were partially offset by the strong Aussie dollar. The brokers anticipate operating cost reductions from the introduction of road train haulage and further treatment plant debottlenecking. This should deliver substantial earnings upside provided the company does not run into any operational challenges. The team of James Wall and Bob Besley, as executive chairman and managing director respectively, have overcome some big hurdles with this company already so they deserve a good run. Other factors which should work in favour of the company are the metal prices, further drilling results from the Broken Hill Rasp project and signing up new customers for its Newcastle shiploader.

Possibly one of the most interesting recommendations is a company called Minara Resources which may not ring a bell with many UK investors. Remember Anaconda Nickel and the Murrin Murrin nickel laterite project which never seemed to work properly? Minara is Anaconda reborn and to crown it Dr James Campbell, who was Anglo American’s base metal boss at the time and in frequent conflict with Twiggy Forrest, is chairman. Now Murrin Murrin works and Patersons are expecting it to achieve annual production of 40,000 tonnes of nickel. Thanks to nickel and cobalt prices the company became cash positive in the December quarter and the company is now debt free. Moreover if there is a positive outcome from the Fluor Daniel arbitration in April the company could have as much as A$200 million in the kitty in nine months time which would enable it to pay an initial dividend.

Last of the Paterson mining recommendations is Straits Resources which is due to become a diversified mining house by adding gold and copper to its existing coal business. Sebuku Coal in Indonesia has returned to profitability following the replacement of the mining contractor and should report solid earnings growth this year. Exploration results at the Mount Muro gold project which is also in Indonesia have also been encouraging and this could be fast tracked into production as there is a plant on site. Meanwhile the Whim Creek copper project in Western Austalia is also on track for production by the year end. Quite a combination.

thanks for the postings goldfinger, not sure i agree with all, things are looking up at zoo, just about to break into the japanese market, and ascent media about to release 2 interactive dvds, who are just 1 of the numerous early adopters. Also at the prices, moneybox (atm) has more potential growth than scot tod.

cheers

Hi I facer, yes its certainly good news for ZOO and I still have a lot of this stock all the way up from around 4.5p,I sold my earlier tranchs. The problem is as a pointed out to a poster on the Zoo thread is that with results coming up Zoo are going to have to produce the recent profit warning and this in effect can take away from the positives in what we have seen with ZOO since December. Just depends how the market takes it on the day.

As for the ATM war sorry I cant agree there, I think Scott Tod are the better value at the moment, but I certainly wouldnt rule out transfering again as I have done out of cardpoint, into Money Box.

good luck.

cheers GF.

Continuing my theme from yesterday repositioning my portfolio, getting slowly but surely out of small techs and now looking at more stable less momentum led/low beta led stocks.
Placed an order for LAS London And Assoc Property, a new position. Around 61p to buy, NAV around a quid per share and that is very consevative. Has Bank of Scotland as a partner and also (Bisichi Mining which as its fingers in property aswell as south African mining, sales up 65% at last results and profits up over 100%.)

The consortium own and are developing amongst plenty of others Windsor shopping Centre and the church Square shopping centre in St Helens.

Has a low geared balance sheet and access to over 20 million of funds, looks like a craking investment to me.

cheers GF.

Solid results for TT Electronics and a positive forward looking statement.

TT electronics PLC
30 March 2004



TT ELECTRONICS PLC REPORTS ON STRONGER SECOND HALF FOR 2003 AND INDICATES
CONFIDENCE FOR 2004.

TT electronics, a World leader in resistor and sensor technology today announces
its preliminary results for the year to 31 December 2003.


KEY POINTS

•Group turnover on continuing activities of 527.5 million (2002: 512.5
million).

•Profit before goodwill amortisation, exceptional items and taxation was
20.0 million (2002: 19.2 million).

•The uplift in the second half saw operating profit before goodwill
amortisation increase by 19 per cent from 10.1 million in the first half to
12.0 million (H2 2002: 9.3 million).

•Sales to the automotive market grew by 12 per cent which was ahead of the
average market growth. The group has received over 350 million new
automotive orders spread over the lives of the product lines.

•The acquisition of Optek Technology for 30.3 million significantly
expanded our sensor activities and will contribute to group profitability in
2004.

•Magnetic businesses now reorganised with exceptional costs of 3.7
million and goodwill of 10.1 million recycled through the profit and loss
account.

•The Board is recommending a maintained final dividend of 6.36p per share
bringing the total for the year to 10.05p (2002: 10.05p).

John Newman, Executive Chairman said today:

'These results reflect both our continuing success within the automotive market
and improved trading conditions.

It is particularly pleasing to report a 12 per cent growth in sales to the
automotive market. We have for some years recognised the potential of this
market. The range of products and technologies we have developed is such that we
estimate that over 60 per cent of all cars produced in Europe and North America
incorporate at least one of our products. We continue to work with our customers
to develop new electronic solutions which improve vehicle fuel efficiency,
safety and comfort.

In recent months we have experienced an improvement in order intake which we
believe will be maintained and as a result now look forward with confidence to
better trading conditions in the current year.'
30 March 2004


Enquiries:
TT electronics plc Tel: 01932 856647
John W Newman, Executive Chairman

Biddicks Tel: 020 7448 1000
Zoe Biddick
Website:
www.ttelectronics.com


cheers GF

thanks for the response goldfinger, best of luck

goldfinger, heres an interesting article:


www.evbg.com 29 March 2004
Cardpoint (CASH) Buy (unchanged)
Mkt cap: 44m Net cash: 0.3m Comment Price/Target: 150p/133p
Cardpoint (CASH) Buy (unchanged)
Mkt cap: 44m Net cash: 0.3m Comment Price/Target: 150p/133p
More for your money
Cardpoints share price has had a strong run this year as investors have
warmed to its business model and track record. Despite this, it is valued at
a discount to its newly quoted competitor.
Cardpoints closest quoted competitor Moneybox (ATM.L) has been trading
for a few days. Its share price has been in a range of 50-52p a relatively
modest premium to its flotation price of 47p. Although competitors in terms
of delivery of convenience ATM services, there are important points of
differentiation between the businesses.
Cardpoints root is strong organic growth, but since flotation it has
established itself as the leading sector consolidator. Moneybox has been
grown organically
Cardpoint's estate is almost exclusively of managed ATMs. Moneybox
has 1,100 merchant replenishment ATMs (smaller and lower volume)
Cardpoint's estate (approx 2000 ATMs) is mainly wholly owned,
depreciated over 5 years. Moneybox's estate (2,400 in the UK, 180 in
Netherlands and 180 in Germany) is funded by 7 year operating leases.
Moneybox is looking to build fastest its merchant replenishment, Dutch
and German estates. Cardpoint has just entered the German market
Moneybox's average transactions/ATM/month is 1,400 (for the
managed ATMs) and 500 (for the merchant fill ATMs). Cardpoints
average is 975. Cardpoint's average is diluted by the Securicor
acquisition
Cardpoint's average withdrawal fee is 154p. Moneybox's is nearer to
150p
Moneybox has a net cash balance of 14.5m on its balance sheet. We
estimate that Cardpoint will end the year with net debt of 3.9m.
Cardpoint continues to seek acquisition opportunities to consolidate
further the sector utilising funding from the market as previously.
Moneybox has indicated that the cash balance, war chest, is to be used
for unspecified acquisitions
Neither group is currently paying tax because of past losses
Both groups have non-ATM businesses. Cardpoint's is the mobile
phone-top up business, which we estimate to contribute 0.3m on sales
of 9m this year. Moneybox has an electronic security / vending card
business, with turnover of about 10m and 10% margin.
As to valuation. Cardpoint is trading at a discount to Moneybox. EV/EBITA
probably provides the best comparator ratio for the groups. Our preliminary
estimates for Moneybox show turnover of 39m and pre-tax profit of 3m for
this year and 66m and 7.7m, respectively, for next year (years to Dec). On a
market cap of 103m this gives an EV/rev of 1.3x and EV/EBITA of 12.4x for
12/05E. For Cardpoint, we have 32m of turnover and 2.4m of operating
profit for the year to Sept 2004 and 37m and 4.0m, respectively, for next
year. On a market cap of 44m, this gives EV/rev of 1.2x and EV/EBITA
10.7x for 9/05E. There seems to be no good reason for Cardpoint trading at a
discount to Moneybox, aside from size, Cardpoint's longer record as a public
company and wider coverage argue for a valuation premium.


http://www.beesonresearch.co.uk/

Hi Goldfinger
I have made alot of cash from your tips, I am surprised,however that you have not mentioned afe recently. I know that they have taken a dive due to the rainy season and goldfields rejection of miyabi. however since the last rns they seem a bargain at 22p. Am I missing something here.

Cheers anyway
greedyb

No not at all in fact I have added to AFE over the last month. News is now seeping out from the company and I am sure you saw the latest RNS only a couple of days ago. Still worth holding and adding to in my opinion.

Cheers GF.

Hi Ifacer thanks for the gem on Cardpoint. Very interesting.

Will be posting on the 3 new shares I have bought hopefully this weekend. As I have pointed out in the last 2 weeks I am changing the portfolios direction slowly but surely away from small momentum/high beta techs into more solid low beta industrial stocks.

I beleive although some have called this premature this is the best way to go about it. People have mentioned the capital gains year end as a reason for the stagnation in the markets over the last few weeks. I say sorry theres more to it than that, the terrorist threat we face is holding the markets back and I for one do not want to be holding losses like most held on sept 11th and after.

We need to hedge for these problems and although I am not advocating going into all out defensives, surer less volatile stocks need to be bought and exchanged for some of the more volatile holdings.

cheers GF.

ps, please note there is no need for panic. I have had a few e-mails on these lines. I will not be selling BPRG or Mediwatch or CMS webview or SVR, but I have started to offload IMG and PTL and have sold Telspec outright after a few days.

GF

You change your stance a lot on shares when u say u will do something, then do something different i.e. you sold avocet mining for no reason other than price fell a bit. Its now risen back most of what it lost. Also, I noted u said you would hold Bema Gold for 10 years. Well you havbe top sliced already and from reading some of your other postings on other share tips, i do not have much credance on some of the things you say.
Although this is a board for everyone to air views and share facts, a lot of novices or people not understanding the stock market look at some peoples opinions or tips on this and buy into certain shares. I know you always say buy or sell in your own time etc but there does seem to be inconsistencies in some of the things u say.

Hope i have not annoyed you though for saying all this. I just felt it needed saying

Fair enough scotinvestor, theres always two sides to a coin.

Im still in Bema with a healthy profit and like others I do need the occasional drawings and hence my taking profits from a very large position. I still very much hold and will also add and sell being a tranch buyer and seller.

As for avocet I have been in these since 19p from around feb last year. I needed money for an investment in bricks and motar and this share provided me with that, and yes the price did fall and as just risen slightly. If you switch over to minesite.com there is a very damming piece on avocet criticising the company on its PR and its general promotion of the company.

I would also point out that the rebalancing of my portfolio as not been brought about because of economic facters in general (although I am very worried about the consumer debt problem here and in the US ) but more geopolitical events.

I for one could not forecast in Early January that the increased terrorist problems we have seen and are likely to face in the future would impact the home market and markets around the world in the fashion that it as done.

I personaly think it is very responsible of me to take this repositioning of my portfolio rather than to just let things be. If that means losing some revenues in the short term for a stronger portfolio in the future so then be it.

The ones who lose out in markets are the ones who cling to false hopes for far too long and then its too late.

Good look with your stratergy.

cheers GF.

Have any of you guys taken a hard look at:
Clarkson CKN
Maybourn MBY
Victoria VCP

They are all growing fast on a very low PE and paying a good divi

Check them out!