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ethel - we have just breached a recent resistance level (the line joining the peaks at about 10th Feb and about 16th Mar) with a 2 day EOD of 21.25p, entering into a new inner short-term trading range probably around 19-23p. I say inner because both this new little channel and the recent one we've just come from below this resistance line lie within the broader long-term up-channel now discernible by joining the lows at mid Jan and 4th April. The upper line is parallel to this touching the 10th Feb peak.

This new inner range could continue for a week, a month, a quarter - I don't think you can tell (as opposed to hope) and will depend upon the rate of release of more good news and the strength of institutional buying which must come seriously on stream shortly.

In some senses the recent weak resistance line now becomes the new support line, but again weakish. A stronger support line is still the lower line of the old inner channel which passes through the same point as the main long-term channel - were I a stop losser, this line rising at a bout 15 from the horizontal is where I would set it.

When we breach decisively the upper line of the longer-term channel above about 25p currently (or higher if we continue in the inner range for longer) the fireworks will really start, taking us into a new, accelerated upward channel and onto 50p + by year end. Eric says 1 by year end. I just can't tell - but would be happy anywhere between 50p and 1 by Xmas. However, the longer we fail to breach this line, the less chance we will have of achieving those dizzy heights this year.

If anyone thinks I'm barking (sic!) please feel free to shoot me down. I'm really just trying this analysis on for size. Does my tail look big in it?

SD

ethel: Still a learner where the charts are concerned. However, I believe we are in a rising trend rather than trading between resistance and support levels. Worth comparing the run up from 6p to 18p which took several steps: there is inevitably a correction after each step. My guru, johngtudor, always takes end of day (EOD) positions and ignores the intra-day as noise because of the trader games. It may be that we do settle down to trade between 20p and 22.5p for a while or we may have another rising channel as over the last few weeks. On balance I believe we will steadily move to higher ground as the institutions build up stakes; surely Shares will report positively this week. Against the market, SEO effectively rose today. I am not that worried because the fundamentals are so strong.

Another nifty poem, stockdog. Are you suggesting that I am biased in any way. A first from Honey, the Labrador, today. She doesn't chase rabbits but loves chasing squirrels because they climb trees and she can baek from the safety of ground level. left her doing this today only for her to come trotting up proudly presenting me with a squirrel -must have fallen out of the tree and broken its neck poor thing. Tess, our new Westie, coming on the walks now, gamely keeping up and quite happy to chase rabbits. Don't think you've tried your paw at SEO projections. The key factor, which andysmith and di might help with, is the likely penetration of the market that is realistic. Isn't this a worldwide must have and, as bos loves to point out, this is just for starters.

Eric

Good posts today SD/Eric, No harm at all in taking profits, I have done so on several occasions this year in particular 200% on IDS/MMG. The difference for me with SEO is that even with 400% & 500% profit on some buys I still see SEO going to 100p from here. I think any US supply deal will see this soar. Remember the maths folks, 10% market pentration could yield EPS 10p x PE10 = 100p. Asda deal for UK/Ireland plus our guess of Walmart USA would probably be more than 10%. Don't forget SEO are not a one product company, others are coming on stream. It was difficult to see how SEO could achieve rapid roll-out of RF sealing UNTIL the two recent announcements, just need the icing on the cake. I honestly can't see a better opportunity on the LSE to make a lot of money by investing in an emerging company who have products to satisfy market needs of large retailers worldwide. DYOR of course.

andysmith: your post came 3 minutes after mine and you may have missed the question re market penetration. Given 20K machines in Europe and, say, 50K in all, what would you see as the likely market penetration. Tim Freeborn's assumption was about 5000 by 2008 but that could be way down now that the supply side is sorted out. Given the almost unlimited capacity of Advanced Energy Industries, they can proceed with marketing/selling in parallel across the major worldwide markets. It seems most unlikely that they need an exclusive in North America like ASDA so 2006 growth could be phenomenal for Greenseal. Beginning to think the 1 projection is overly cautious! Mind, I am likely to be in trouble from stockdog again for unbridled enthusiasm. he might want to keep his master on a leash!

Eric

Eric

Well done Honey, poor squirrel!

I think we are probably saying similar things in different words, both resulting in the belief we are in a strongly upward momentum phase subject to the normal oscillation within short term, narrow ranges and step moves between them.

I won't even attempt to rise to your challenge of SEO projections - I just don't have the numbers, prices and overehead figures to hand. I am not sure historical accounts will be much guide either. Here's a complete guestimate . . .

If UK & Ireland are generating 5m sales, then USA, Canada, Mexico must be 20m and Japan, Europe, etc another 15m. That's getting on for 40m annual revenues, at (wild guess) 35% operating profit, less 20% overheads, amortisation and legals (don't mention the war!), leaves 6m profit for 2005. With market cap of 187.29m today, that's a PE of about 31, which could/should be nearer 75(???) for such a growth business, suggests an SP of 51p - hey presto, think of the number you first thought of! Then add in frog-pack and all the other goodies and perhaps we are on the way to your 1.

What do you reckon?

SD

Evening Eric, SD, et al

First time I've posted on this thread for quite a while. I really should have bought a stake during the Court Case when at 4p, but my Share Club bought instead, so decided to limit my exposure to what at the time was a far from clear situation. Anyway, interesting day,in so much that the Bears and the Bulls fought out a tough draw with no clear victor.

SEO seems to be taking on the yearly small investors mantle of ASC (previously BPRG) as the momentum share of the year. It is unlikely that this momentum is likely to be halted in the near future (unless for bad news) and I believe that the upward trend will continue. In the short term the MACD remains positive with good volumes. I feel a Spread Bet coming on.

Regards

PTH

SD

All very reasonable. Have you access to the Evolution figures by Tim Freeborn? - these predate the recent partner announcements. 2006 is the first year of real volume and therefore doesn't have royalty payments. 2007 will be the year when previous estimates are dwarfed because of the royalties and because of the exponential pattern likely of sales as we move from the innovative leaders in each market to the mass of organisations that can't afford to be left behind. We have been talking about 5000 machines in three years but the actual number could be a multiple. The key point is that SEO can now cope with the voume given their supply partners. How quickly will this scenario become common knowledge? May be sooner than we think - back to Evolution I think who are free from direct responsibility and prepared to do the homework including talking to the key players. In one sense, I am not that concerned because I am committed to my base holding long term (unlike and other holdings) but I feel this dialogue is worth while to convince those who might otherwise be short-term holders.

Eric

i have little idea about technical analysis but i am going to join in this techie chat. we keep saying seo is this years asos. i have said before that the charts are frighteningly similar. the movements over the last week or so only add to the arguement. on a number of occassions last year asos dipped close to the 50ma only for it to shoot back up. last week was our first since the golden cross(is that what you called it , sd?). if seo carries on in the same vein as asos then there will be other opportunities to fill yer boots! my biggest fear is that seo becomes like bprg and gets taken over by wanker traders.

Eric, I think that the projections of machines per year can be brought forward.
I would expect that 5000 machines will be 2007 depending on the deals that can be struck but at least they are now in a position to deliver following the recent announcements and without needing to significantly increase overheads or raise funds. 100p conservative, could well be. That's why I will hold these for a long-time. The blue-sky article in Shares for annual profits in excess of 50m per annum is less of a pipe-dream but a very real possibility. Seems ridiculous on historic performance but that is history, SEO are moving forward.

off topic. andysmith, i think you've got the same feeling about moi as i have. could this be next years seo, perhaps......?

I think that Moi could be next years SEO, another recovery stock with ten-bagger written all over it. Only small amount of dosh left at moment but due some in June and may increase position in MOI then. Can you believe how well we have done with SEO this year? Just when you think the sp is running out of steam they deliver more good news. How long until a US supply deal? Almost certainly with Walmart?

Fascinating that MOI should receive a mention. Kicked off a new bout of research last night, totally independant of MoneyAM and amongst a shortlist of 20 companies or so, MOI feature. Probably no great recommendation, but it all helps to lend credence.

PTH

I am also like bos I don't have much idea about technical analysis, but I have just had a look at the Graph for Trafficmaster over the last two years (when I was in from 10p to 110p) and I see the sp of seo going the same route, Trafficmaster issued rns's every now and again on the deals it was making with car companies the deals kept coming although not that good that's why the sp has dropped since. The graph is interesting if you do have a look especially the rapid rise from 40p to 110p is what sd was talking about.

I have posted the Graph have a look

What a performer - SEO down 1.5 at mid-day then closes even! These shares are amazingly resilient.

Di - you don't need to listen to Uncle Eric too closely - he tends to eulogise about a share the moment before it dips! However - longer term I agree with him and SD et al that SEO have a lot further to travel - and I am indeed hoping so! 1 per share in 12 months - well why not!?

I have been in and out of SEO this year - and very happily too! Like you I don't always get the right sell date but so far my stockmarket experience this year is heaps better than last year.

I don't have 100million shares like some posters of this BB say they have! However 15% is 15% whatever you've got.

morning all. so we are agreed. shares on the up and up dont move in straight lines. so really, there is no need to panic when we have the occassional dip, as sd said. hoping for a steady eddie day.

Looks like they parted company in december.