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Bakko

sounds good -name the date and well sort it out

Will try and come up with a date over next few days as the mental diary is on low at this time of night!

Fundy, Not so daft afterall, Peter Crouch is the new England striker!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/4518717.stm

Consider this - to date over the years 43 of the 108 1st leg football league play-off matches have ended as draws - 40% (a 6/4 fair bet). There is no reason to think this year will be any different as there seem to be a number of tight matches. Bookies are offering 9/4 or 11/5 the draw for each match. Free money?

looks like glazier is going to get his hands on Man U as hes got the irish 30% now

huge gamble on perfect tone 14.10 at salisbury

Good day so far on the races.

Well done john, keep it going.

i got off to a flyer on the first 5 races then got called out to the site - just about to start again

Been a good day Steve. None of this loading one side with 50,000 and all that funny business. Scrip must be away today then!!

Having said that just got stuffed by Swiftway in the 17.05

Sorry to hear john - i managed to catch that the right way round - so far so good - just looked at my p&l for the day and im 14 from 14 :-))) feeling a loser may be round the corner

Any thoughts on the glazer takeover?

You get the feeling Utd is coming to the end of an era. I remember Liverpool being so dominant in the 70's and 80's it seemed it would never end. Surely all this fuss can't do Utd any good?

Scrip

i think you and i both hope that at least it will have a short term effect and that they lose their next 2 games :-)))

Been working on these odds for Sunday this morning. None of it makes any sense from a statistical perspective. Also weird to note that large bookmakers are finding it difficult to quote on Fulham vs Norwich and Southampton vs Man Utd. I do not know why. I note a lot of the spread bettors do not have quotes on these markets and subsets.

From the perspective of stats vs market prices the odds on the relegation teams are completely out of proportion to the theoretical odds.

Roughly working out I see the following:-

Soton vs Man Utd
Theory 3.27, 3.87, 2.30
Market 2.52, 4.10, 2.70

Fulham vs Norwich
Theory 1.64, 4.35, 6.23
Market 3.10, 3.85, 2.34

West Brom vs Portsmouth
Theory 1.70, 4.03, 6.09
Market 1.66, 4.00, 6.20

Charlton vs Crystal Palace
Theory 1.75, 4.98, 4.39
Market 3.40, 3.55, 2.30

So, Only the West Brom vs Portsmouth match appears to be priced at normal value. The others have a very very heavy bias to the miracle of the last day. All the subset markets are reflecting the same issues. So next goal, total goals and correct score are significantly adrift from "normal" value. Of course the great unquantifiable here is just how much this great escape motivation will play on the last day. Also the motivation for the opposing teams must play on this. Curious stuff. Never seen such pricing but then again I have never seen such an end to the season!

Thanks Script, based on that summary I am going to stick to the horses this weekend.

I also don't think I could stay calm enough on Sunday to focus on trading correctly.

Weirdness is the flavour this weekend.

Roma vs Lazio, Under 2's for the draw!!!

For those who are into tennis the QF game between Federer and Coria is due to start soon. These 2 are by far the best in the tournament and the winner of this IMO should go on to win it outright.

It should be a tight game with good trading opportunities but Fed should edge it.

Fundy and Harlosh, If you're both free middle of next week how about an evening out?

Bakko

Can do any night monday to thursday

Fundy,

If we provisionally make it for next Wed and confirm as soon as OK with John.