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Snurkle - day off - "was".... the plan :o)

Just been reading some analysts views on the p/metals in last 15 min (love 'em and great work if you can get it !

If silver takes ot it's previous high and breaks $50 - it will go on to make a new high.
(Yes an honours degree holder in - economic obvious infant grade maths)

How they earn a living spouting.......

If $19 gives way then we head straight down to $15. Now $19 becomes resistance.
- If $15 gives way then we head down rather quickly to $12.
- At this point in time we should see a bit of an oversold rally.

Once the rally is over back up to $14… then $12 finally gets taken out and we drop to $10, by end of July.
- Well, if $10 gets taken down then there is no support until $7.50… and if we get serious selling at this point…..
- we could easily see sub $5 by August.

And if all support gets taken out under $5… then
- we can see silver
- being given away..... for free :o)

Should silver be given away..for free....IMO this would signal ...a strong entry point
- and would probably indicate a bottom, followed by a turning point.

Italy - oops
(Further sign all is - improving nicely - fine and dandy)

The Telegraph reports,
Mediobanca's 'index of solvency risk' suggests
- "time is running out fast" for .....Italy.

With the breakdown in Eurozone talks on a banking union and the Fed's shift in policy, Europe "has become a dangerous place," warns RBS.

- Unless Italy can count on low borrowing costs and a broad recovery,
....... it will "inevitably end up in...... an EU bailout."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10139939/Italy-joins the totally FCUKed-EU-rescue-within-six-months-warns-Mediobanca.html

The current situation is as bad as when the country was blown out of the ERM in 1992 as "the Italian macro situation has not improved...rather the contrary;
- with 160....... large corporates in Italy
- now in special...... crisis administration."

Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick
KWN states his record as...
- called the rally high on gold ..correctly..at $1,791 in October of 2012,
-( then turned bearish on gold and it proceed to come down significantly in price).
- Then....after gold recently breached the key $1,520 area
- he called for a target around the mid-$1,200s,
- and once again, almost like a magnet, voila - it's in the target zone.

Opinion on - where next ??

It’s possible that gold may trade a bit lower because of momentum, but certainly...
- we have now achieved the target
(I gave to you when we broke the double-top on gold).

“We found this interesting because it was
- virtually identical to the high-to-low down-move that we saw in gold in 2008 (also 34%). While we certainly haven’t seen anything yet to say we are about to head up dramatically, we believe

- that we ..may.. be bottoming here in gold.

Now that we’ve essentially achieved that target, our feeling has always been that a healthy trend gets healthy corrections. This is yet another healthy correction like we saw in 2008.
- The interesting thing is because of where we’ve come from,
- if ......we were to now follow, over the next three years, the move after we put in that 2008 low in gold in terms of magnitude,
- it actually suggests something in the region of .......$3,400 to $3,500 for gold
(see chart below).

Same Guy - on Silver

Our view that a host of markets are following the 1966 to 1982 pattern,
- which means this cycle will ultimately culminate around 2016.
(So what’s happening here now is actually pushing us into a target for gold that fits nicely with our big picture view of a host of key markets.”)

- If - we’re near the end of this cyclical decline in both gold and silver, what might we look for going forward?”
- “If we are in fact ending it, as I mentioned our focus has been that we will now start the multi-year move on gold to $3,400 to $3,500.


Again, if you look at silver going back to the 2008 correction,
- we got down to levels below $9, then.....
- we saw the silver price multiply by a factor of over 5 times.

So assuming this marks a point near the end of the correction in silver, then our bias would be one that would take silver not only to new all-time highs, but we would look for a target as high as $100 for silver (see chart below).

" Brilliant - I don't have to read anymore bs from psychos who scream everything is terrible, we should sell & then admit they are holders & that PMs will recover."

So where have I said that?

Challenge you to prove it as I have been one of the more optimistic AGQ shareholders for a long time.

So my thoughts on the above... guestimates fwiw

- IF (Big if) - the Banksters .....
- after the (obviously) manipulated takedown are doing a standard "rinse and repeat"....and in line with charts in - the last 2 posts....shortly let the metals free (for a decent run)
- they "should" be exiting their previously massive shorts, as a result of "their" takedown of the paper price
- and be swinging over into increasingly ....net long
(or conversley be swinging into a decreasingly reduced....net short position)



And that chart shows

“The ...net... commercial...... short position
- is at the....... lowest level...... sinceway, way back in February of 2005,
( when gold was at just.....$425 an ounce.”)

Worries me tho'
(since we entered topsy turvey world)
- when things - seem to ....stack up...as joined up ....and sensible

Interesting - whilst just one ....little chart
- showing a little move...of just under a tiny 1% move - up - in interest rates/yield
- on US ....T-Bonds

But that little chart with the tiny move up ...could spell...a whole lotta trouble at t'mill.

Why - it's only approaching a tiidly 1% rise in interest rates ?
- well 1% of....Trillions is - a BIG BIG number

So - if everyone with a mortgage around the world (triilions of say dollars) - and they all have to pay 1% more interest....the 1% of Trillions is
- a BIG BIG number they have less to spend in discretionary "retail therapy" choice spending
- impact on company bottom line profits ?
- impact of less retail spending on Gov't VAT type tax income ??

If all the companies around the world - have to pay just 1% more on their borrowing costs - again that's 1% of Trillions in total borrowings
- That's another - Big Big Number
- Impact on company profits ?

Higher interest/yields on bonds - mean existing bond prices....fall
- big numbers - big hit to investors
- central banks hold trillions in bonds
- mark 'em to market and.....?
- well for a start - the drop would wipe out the FEDDY's mere 66 billion balance sheet capital
(erm....that makes the central bank...well...erm...insolvent).

If the US has to pay 1% extra on what it borrows - say 16 Trillion....that's a Big Big number - it can't spend on ...well. the stuff gov'ts spend on - health, welfare, food stamps etc
- or it has to borrow even more just to pay the extra interest it has to pay
- or it has to raise taxes
(oops - less dicretionary spending by the punters..into the economy again !)

Then of course....there's the small matter of ....interest rates/swaps
- in my speak they are a protection policy
- when you take out a loan at a variable rate
- if the rate goes up - the policy pays out the extra cost....but
- if the rate goes...down then in simple terms you pay the saving...to the bankster

Small problem - if the rate goes up 1% ....either the Banksters
- start having to pay out
- or they start to get less than - they had coming in before

And there is.....Four Hundred & Forty plus TRILLION in those interest swap derivatives
- so a piddly 1% impact into a 440 TRILLION market
- Big Big Number

Add .....all those impacts together and....it could spell trouble at t'mill
- and...if rates continue to increase
- multiple that problem...several fold - and to put it politely....as they said on the apollo 13 mission
- "Houston - we have a problem"

Well that's just my thoughts FWIW on a piddly ...nearly 1% .....on a little chart




Must revisit my "when the SHTF" plans.....soon :o)

3 cheers for all your work Gaz. Excellent stuff!
Yep the 440Tr is the pink elephant in the room and that is what will trigger the final collapse imho. The big question is 'when?'

I'm thinking that it could well happen this year. We've had our false dawn in 2008 and everyone has been lulled back to sleep. Jim Rickards seems to think that the Fed will openly change their decision of 'tapering' around September to stay within the annual cycle of stocks rising at that time of the year.

When ever it may be, what to expect is anyone's guess. Like you've explained yesterday, different levels of reaction, depending on how long it lasts and how little food is around.

The big difference between this and all the other previous times is that it is completely global, on every single continent. They really have done it this time. Not to mention, how to get out of this?
That makes for a different post altogether no doubt at a later stage.

Morning Gaz, Snurks,

Looks like the bank template for bail ins has been agreed overnight - for the eurozone.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/us-eu-banks-idUSBRE95Q02L20130627

So in this order this is who loses:

Shareholders & creditors
Depositors with 100k +
Euros 500bn fund
Governments & taxpayers

So needless to say I willnever buy another bank share (not that I had any since the Barcs crash)

Looks like tptb do not want the general public to bear the brunt - now how long before the UK follows said template?

And what happens to pension funds who hold bank stocks?

We already have a similar law Squirrel, made and agreed on awhile back.
See Co-operative back debacle

As for pension pots holding these stocks.... they get hammered!
Maybe best to get a pension fund who deals with Pharma's only :-)

Lol - out of my hands. I don't think mine deal with banks.

Best to keep savings to a minimal amount.

Good.

Shall continue with my coin collection.

Pine posted this over the other side this morning:-

http://debka.com/article/23073/Russia-evacuates-Tartus-also-military-diplomatic-personnel-from-Syria-High-war-alert-in-Israel

Lmao.

I see you have been preeching on the Arian Silver thread

squirrel888 27 Jun'13 - 10:22 - 37969 of 37978 0 2
It is more concerning to see the UK digress into a quagmire of negativity & fratching. It deserves to have 1930's reset where everyone gets a big slap in their arrogant, self-rightious faces & start to learn to be hunble, show humility and re-learn to be humane.

The hypocrisy of your behaviour is fooling no one whenever you hear an opinion that doesn't align with yours. So pleased you have squelched me because you're nauseatingly arrogant and self righteous yourself...

Suggest you take a leaf out of your own book

Snurkle - yes that derivative level - especially the interest rate swaps is a very big ticking Kaboomer
- Italy's problems apparently stem from the days of complying with EU limits ets
- and guess what...SachsOFgold set up some "get round the rules" deferment derivatives (which are coming home to roost - hence expected need of a bailout - later this year0
- AND JUST FOR FUN - gues who was head of the Italian Central Bank....at the time
- yes - non other than (super Mario) Draghi...himself
- definite candidate for the Ken Livingstone - on a lampost a day until they get it right....treatment.

Squirrel - looking at that pecking order of Cyprus template shafting
- added to their 97.5% of "Total" liabilities - can be - bailed in
- I doubt after they have stolen most if not all the depositor, uninsured funds, they will not need the "ficticious" - EU bailout fund
(After all it is only iou/promises backing the fund - and they are given by the EU nations - the majority of which are already insolvent or in fact receiving bailouts themselves)
- and if the fund did have any funds & had to pay out....who picks up the tab ? - ...taxpayers
- smoke and mirrors illusion and deception.

good 54 page analysis - lots of charts - which paint ...thousand word pictures etc

(NB click the "X".... in the blue band at the bottom... - to close the blue bar - it then gives you access to the bottom scroll arrow....to move down the pages :o)

In GOLD We TRUST 2013 - Incrementum Extended Version

Nice one gaz.

Although I like this thread, from now on I will post most of my links and bits on the other side. It's crawling with rude newbies who are in dire need of education :-)

Joking aside, I don't want to double up posts on 2 blogs, but would like to reach as many other people as I can.

Snurkle - cheers

Re the
"would like to reach as many other people as I can"

The one thing I have learned in the last 12m

- is - all bar a handful of posters on ADVFN - most don't actually read what's posted
- and of those that do - even less... actually read ..the linked info
(How many - people post something you, yourself have posted..previously :o)

The other "proof of the pudding" in the last couple of months
- I posted that the T's were being crossed and I's dotted - by the B of E re putting the Cyprus "Template" here in the UK - since way back in....2011
(seemingly went uncommented on and un-noticed....as you might say)

Exactly the same - when I brought up the info from the Financial Stability Board - on progress in rolling out the template...globally,.. cross border, even for the T>B to fails, markets generally, insurance Co's etc

The evidence that - The Royal Society, Prime Ministers office and Gov't itself
-massively suppressed "The fact GMO's caused cancer, birth defects, sterility etc"
- discovered by "its own" - funded research
- suprisingly - gained... zilch notice either.

Hence, once "that penny dropped" the amount I posted over there was substantially reducing
- and the non active links (unless "white listed") - plus the ...no graphics/charts etc,( for non subsciption paying posters), was ultimately...just the icing on the cake as they say.

Much better facilities over here - but most regulars appear to have hung in there with whats left of, the skeleton, of the previously excellent advfn board, and as you imply
- not many moneyam members seen to be interested in "joining in" over here either :o)

But there's little point in "flogging a dead horse" here...or there,
- tho' great while it lasted.

And of course - a big thanks to...... squirrel
- for all the effort she put in ....in giving the alternative a whirl.

I know what you're saying and you are correct, but there are also a lot of lurkers who do read our stuff and who do seem to be interested in our opinions, articles etc.

I'll keep my eye on this thread and no doubt will seek refuge here when the battery of rude newbies get in my tits.

Gaz - you do yourself a terrible disservice; there are some of us who post rarely but follow both comments and links that the likes of you and the much trolled Peter barnes have posted over a long period. As some-one who hasnt got much time for searching innumerable sites for "nuggets" I really appreciate the efforts of those who do.
The alternative view perceived and posted by people like yourself is invaluable and would be sorely missed by a legion of lurkers like myself.(on both sites).
Please keep up the good work.

Glyn, I concur :-)