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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 12:41 - 2746 of 11056

Got a limit sell in at 1.3095 on EUR/USD.

mostrader - 19 Jan 2005 12:42 - 2747 of 11056

ok
cpi out @ 1.30 jm

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 12:59 - 2748 of 11056

Short EUR/USD at 1.3085, stop at 1.3105

Blue - 19 Jan 2005 13:45 - 2749 of 11056

mostrader, thanks thought the other the thread was the new fx thread had the wrong glasses on

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 13:52 - 2750 of 11056

stopped for -20 on EUR/USD

mostrader - 19 Jan 2005 13:53 - 2751 of 11056

blue not to sure whats going on but stick on here for fx @ mom
jm iam flat i had nearly 90tics early doors out of stg kinda sitting back and watching @ mom

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 13:59 - 2752 of 11056

just bought USD/CHF 1.1768

HelenW - 19 Jan 2005 14:57 - 2753 of 11056

Mostrader, I have sent you an am email.

mostrader - 19 Jan 2005 14:59 - 2754 of 11056

ok nice chf call jeff,
hilary..thks.

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 15:04 - 2755 of 11056

Mos, getting in is easy, getting out at the right time is the difficult one

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 15:15 - 2756 of 11056

put a limit sell in at 1.1825

stockbunny - 19 Jan 2005 15:37 - 2757 of 11056

Ok FOREX is not my thing...but the dollar wouldn't be having
a bad day would it generally???

stockbunny - 19 Jan 2005 15:37 - 2758 of 11056

oppps posted twice

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 15:39 - 2759 of 11056

limit of 1.1825 hit for +57 on my USD/CHF long

jeffmack - 19 Jan 2005 15:40 - 2760 of 11056

bunny
You are right, USD is doing OK in the last couple of hours

mostrader - 19 Jan 2005 15:41 - 2761 of 11056

nice jm.:)

stockbunny - 19 Jan 2005 15:42 - 2762 of 11056

Gold futures up, gold price higher, thought that might be the
case re; the dollar.

mostrader - 19 Jan 2005 15:44 - 2763 of 11056

Euro stays above 1.30, but for how long?
AUD, NZD and GBP rebound from weakness in Asian session, broader rebound capped by strong US TIC report. Little action in US bond market despite several Fed speakers.


Major Headlines - Previous Session
Markets try to drive the Euro back through 1.3000, so far without success.

Indeed, the Euro held up comparatively well considering that the US portfolio capital flows report showed the biggest net inflow into US securities since April (and a full USD20bn greater than needed to fund the record November trade deficit), with flows into equities at a level last seen since May 2001.

The Fed commentary was broadly in keeping with what we have heard from other speakers of late. President Santomero noted that he expected the US economy to evolve in a way consistent with moving Fed Funds back to neutrality at a measured pace.


Themes To Watch Upcoming Session
No major economic releases expexted in the upcoming Asian trading session.

The focus today will be on the US CPI report. The market is looking for a 0.2% mom rise in the core. Interestingly, the UK December CPI surprised on the high-side for second month in a row, which may forewarn of similar developments elsewhere. Initial jobless claims data will also be closely watched as this is payrolls survey week, whilst the oil market will await the latest US inventory report. There are also still several Fed speeches due.


EURUSD
EURUSD broke back higher after making a new low in Asian trading a classic reversal signal. But it has later drifted lower again capped by strong US TIC report. It is likely the pair will be able to stay above 1.3000 in Asian and make it back above the 1.3060/70 area, in which case the reversal could continue all the way up to 1.3160/70. Despite this price action, it may just be a matter of time before the 1.3000 level is breached

Resist.
1.3193
1.3112
1.3020
1.2950
1.2869
Support


GBPUSD
GBPUSD turned heads with the huge rally from a marginal new low at close to 1.8530 this morning. The upside has been impressive, and cleanly took out 1.8650 resistance which now becomes support once again. GBPUSD has drifted lower in New York on the back of the US TIC report, but the upside could continue to 1.8720.

Resist.
1.8931
1.8791
1.8656
1.8511
1.8371
Support


USDJPY
USDJPY has not been the focus of trading today as both the USD and the JPY alternated in weakness. But the upside did extend to 103.00. Later USDJPY has again drifted lower to break 102.30, which to us indicates continued weakness towards 101.70.

Resist.
104.18
103.33
102.24
101.63
100.78
Support


EURJPY
EURJPY managed to pull all the way to 134.35 on the EURUSD reversal. The trading may be choppy in this pair for a bit as EURJPY pauses for breath. 135.10 is now more likely with the break of the 134.00 resistance.133.30 is support. The upside may only be a brief bullish interlude in an otherwise very bearish chart for the medium to long term.

Resist.
136.07
134.82
133.09
132.32
131.07
Support


USDCAD
USDCAD pulled back after tickling 1.2250 resistance this morning and could continue lower to the 1.2140 support area. Eventual support at that level or slightly lower may be found as these levels would not yet threaten the longer term rally stance of this pair.

Resist.
1.2397
1.2309
1.2245
1.2133
1.2045
Support


USDCHF
USDCHF was a strong performer to the downside as EURCHF has come off heavily today. The downside could continue to at least 1.1775 and if that area is taken out a further fall to 1.1675 is not out of the question for this reversal. On a longer term basis, however, USDCHF is still in rallying mode if it stays above.

Resist.
1.2063
1.1960
1.1856
1.1754
1.1651
Support


AUDUSD
AUDUSD broke back through the 0.7550 resistance a short-term bullish development. However, the has been struggling with that level on the back of the US TIC data. We still believe AUDUSD may rally higher back toward 0.7650 resistance and a challenge of 0.7700 isnt out of the question.

Resist.
0.7713
0.7631
0.7550
0.7468
0.7387
Support


NZDUSD
NZDUSD also reversed course, and could see 0.7000/20 again before finding resistance.

Resist.
0.7117
0.7034
0.6974
0.6868
0.6785
Support

The support/resistance levels used in the matrixs of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

stockbunny - 19 Jan 2005 15:45 - 2764 of 11056

Jeffie you have email from the burrow

mg - 19 Jan 2005 17:17 - 2765 of 11056

Thanks Hils
Been a real roller coaster day - lost a load trying to spot the turn and now got almost all my points back on the way down. Preference would have been to gain points up and down - but then I would be almost as good as mos ;))))

Currently need 20 points to breakeven. You don't want to know the gross figures - or, more to the point, I'm not gonna tell you ;)

Stop in at breakeven on my remaining position and a limit in @ 18650 - 'cos I'm greedy - and think I deserve some kind of profit after spending all day fiddling with cable as well as trying to fix my other PC. Think I've finally achieved the PC fix - now all I need is a continued slide in the /$
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