Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Wednesday, January 19, 2005 15:49 GMT
Daily Report
by Mizuho Corporate Bank
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk


EUR
Comment: The Euro is still very oversold and bearish momentum is surprisingly strong. Long Euro positions continue to be slashed and trendline support is just holding. We continue to feel that the Euro is trying to find an interim base around current levels, but only above 1.3200 does immediate downside pressure ease. Expect prices to consolidate above 1.3000 again today, and re-test of 1.3150/1.3175.

Strategy: Attempt tiny longs at 1.3025; stop well below 1.3000. Cover longs ahead of 1.3150 but be ready to re-buy above 1.3175 for 1.3300.


GBP
Comment: Behaving better than some as the pound gains against the US dollar and against the Euro. An interim low at 1.8525 appears to be in place but momentum does not even start to turn bullish unless we can hold above 1.8950. Until then expect a lot more basing-type activity between 1.8600 and 1.8900.

Strategy: Buy at 1.8650/1.8600; stop below 1.8500. Add to longs above 1.8750 for 1.8930/1.8950.


JPY
Comment: Easing off oversold levels and momentum is only just bearish. While above support around 101.80 allow for consolidation up to 103.25 today. A sustained break above 103.40, while probably unlikely today, should set off a short squeeze to 104.00/104.50.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 102.50, adding to 103.00; stop/reverse above 103.40 for 104.40. Cover shorts ahead of 101.85 and stand aside if possible. For those who have to, only re-sell below 101.65 for 101.25.


EUR/JYP
Comment: Very disappointing as this pair squeezes higher and then ends down on the day. Needless to say it is grotesquely oversold and that bearish momentum is stronger than it has been since March last year. For today we favour more half-heated basing attempts above 133.00. A sustained break above 134.00 should set off a sharp short squeeze to 135.00.

Strategy: Attempt tiny longs at 133.50/133.00; stop below 132.70. Cover longs ahead of 135.00 short term and 136.20 further out.

jeez, closed my USD/CHF about 70 points too soon

Ton of points to be had betting on the strong dollar since 2:00pm

Hils is back :-)

shrt usd/chf @96 stop @ b/e

good entry mos

sold USD/JPY at 102.80. stop 103.00, limit buy at 103.40

Closed out of my /$ short for a slight net profit - I can sleep tonight ;)

mng jm...didnt drop as much as i hoped overnight 19.00 big level
taken half profit @ 50 will run rest..stop @1925

Intraday Range Forecast, Resistance and Support Levels
USD/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 102.65 / 102.90
R: 103.00/103.22/103.55
S: 102.42/102.02/101.67

EUR/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.2995 / 1.3025
R: 1.3042/1.3076/1.3119
S: 1.2964/1.2930/1.2894

USD/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.1830 / 1.1860
R: 1.1908/1.1929/1.1985
S: 1.1806/1.1748/1.1713

GBP/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.8690 / 1.8720
R: 1.8739/1.8764/1.8829
S: 1.8658/1.8627/1.8583

AUD/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.7590 / 0.7615
R: 0.7652/0.7697/0.7725
S: 0.7565/0.7535/0.7505

EUR/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 133.60 / 133.90
R: 133.90/134.40/134.62
S: 133.13/133.01/132.60

EUR/GBP
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.6945 / 0.6970
R: 0.6968/0.6987/0.7027
S: 0.6933/0.6914/0.6893

EUR/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.5402 / 1.5430
R: 1.5445/1.5485/1.5515
S: 1.5402/1.5379/1.5335

Daily updates on Australian Forex Market from CMC Group Asia Pacific
AUD range bound during choppy trade session

The greenback slipped against other major currencies in early London session. The AUD crept higher above the US$0.7600 level and touched intraday high of US$0.7650. However, the USD reversed earlier weakness as firmer US economic data including the December housing starts rose 13.1 per cent month-on-month to 2004k. The latest weekly jobless claim plunged 46k to 319k. The core CPI index rose 0.2 per cent MOM and 2.2 YOY, which is in line with market expectation. The AUD gradually lost all of its overnight gains before it recovered towards the US$0.7600 level in late US afternoon. Resistance is now found at US$0.7650 and US$0.7700. Support can be found at US$0.7560 and US$0.7500.

The EUR climbed higher in early London session amid a broad-based USD retreat and touched intraday high of US$1.3120. However, the USD regained its strength after better than expected economic data and a speech from the ECB's Issing. The central bank policymaker signalled interest rates will stay on hold until Eurozone's growth takes firmer hold. ECB was not concerned about the 2005 outlook for inflation, which it expects to drop below 2 per cent later this year from 2.3 per cent in December. After the US market open, the EUR dropped more than 100 points to dip below the US$1.3000 level before it bounced back above this level towards late US afternoon. Support is now seen at US$1.2970 and US$1.2920. Resistance starts at US$1.3030 and US$1.3050.

GBP edged higher on jobs data. The claimant count fell by more than expected, dropping 6.2k, versus the forecasts of a 1k drop in November. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.7 per cent. GBP regained the US$1.8800 level but eased off after the release of US economic data. The currency pair closed above the US$1.8700 level for the US session. Support is now seen at US$1.8700 and US$1.8650. Resistance is found at US$1.8730 and US$1.8770.

As expected, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged when it announced its decision during the Asian session. The bank maintained its stance to keep the current account deposits target at 30-35 trillion yen, while adding that it would provide additional liquidity regardless of the target if risks emerge. In the BoJ's January report, it kept its economic assessment unchanged, saying that the economy remains in recovery trend with persisting weakness in output. The board expects GDP around 2.5 per cent in fiscal year 2004-2005 and 1.5 per cent in the subsequent year. The currency pair strengthened to overnight low of 102.00 and bounced back towards 103.00 after the stronger US economic data. Resistance is now found at 103.00 and 103.50. Support is now at 102.00 and 101.70.

Gold settled fractionally lower at US$423.00, giving back its earlier gains on the back of a firmer USD as the market digest a slew of US economic data that may suggest further interest rate hikes. Silver was also dragged lower to close at US$6.60.

European Forex Session Wrap-up

The European session closes today, january 19th, with the GBP as, again the major winner of the session. Specially against the EUR, where the bearish indicators sentiment is weighing at the moment, driving the pair to the 0.6940 level. However, and despite this mornings recovery from the europeans against the greenback, they have almost retraced in full and lost all those previous gains.
At the time of this writing, the EUR is trading around 1.3025 against the greenback, 10 pips up. GBP is doing around 1.8725, up more than 100 pips, the Swiss Franc CHF- around 1.1855, loosing (USD gaining) some 10, and finally the Yen around 102.55, gaining 30, and keeping the strong yen view unaltered, though some signs of change arise and we could see some USD buying in coming weeks this view is again reaffirmed today. As yesterday said, I foresee very interesting times to come.
USD small brothers session performance : the AUD is trading around 0.7600, or 40 pips up, the NZD trading around 0.7020, or 50 pips higher, and CAD trading around 1.2275, down around 35 pips. I repeat once again, the performance of the USD against the CAD will be interesting to watch in coming weeks, after the pair is triggering long term bullish signals.
Economic events to resume for january, 21.

USD/JPY - Dollar-yen bounced lower from 103.00.


Dollar-yen bounced lower from 103.00 on continued selling pressure.
Trend: Neutral.
Try shorts from 102.80 target 101.80 stop 103.20.
Supports: 102.00, 101.50
Resistances: 102.90, 103.40


USD/CHF - Dollar-swiss has failed to break above 1.1890/00.


Dollar-swiss has again failed to break above 1.1890/00 resistance area.
Trend: Neutral.
Try longs from 1.1750 target 1.1850 stop 1.1720.
Supports: 1.1740, 1.1690
Resistances: 1.1810, 1.1860

Traps & Tumbles
The 'bear trap' and spike north which I expected yesterday to come real on EUR/USD were indeed confirmed, yet only partially since - although the pair managed to climb for like 100+ pips today in Europe, that up-swing could barely been seen on the 1-day chart.
GBP/USD got a bit more momentum to the north, but eventually fell down itself a lot in the US time.

Such failure shows the USD bulls revived back across the board - and it's possible now EUR/USD may take a good tumble as USD/CHF should rise out of an 'ascending triangle' (4-hr chart). I believe also USD/JPY has good odds to visit 103.70 at the least during a corrective spike north, and even the JPY crosses should be in the process of finding interim bottoming zones.

hola Mos

Just closed my USD/JPY short for +15. As you say didnt do much at all overnight. No positions at the mo. Might look to short USD/JPY after lunch

hola jeff beunas dias mi amigo ..
yep going to wait for directio,i feel going to be doing a bit more usd chf,find it behaves fairly well.....famous last words ...

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,1843. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The price is just bellow 1,1900 resistance. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The target is expected at 1,1780. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are tightened. daily MACD crosses and gives a positive signal. The price should continue to consolidate. The price should find a resistance below 1,1800.
Long term (Weekly)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. RSI is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue on 1,1200 support.
Resistances
1,1860 - 1,1890 - 1,1900
Supports
1,1800 - 1,1740 - 1,1700

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,8717. GBP USD is in an downtrend directed by 4H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The downtrend should continue on 1,8470 support. The price should find a resistance below 1,8740. We could take a short position at 1,8720. We will put the stop loss above 1,8755 (-35 pips). The targets are 1,8550 (+170 pips) 1,8470 (+250 pips). This is a dangerous trade, take care and put your stop loss.
Medium term (Daily)
GBP USD broke the triangle pattern's resistance. The pattern's objective is 2,0000. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should continue on 2,0000 resistance.
Long term (Weekly)
GBP USD is in a triangle pattern. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum.
Resistances
1,8740 - 1,8780
Supports
1,8710 - 1,8660 - 1,8550

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,3007. EUR USD broke 1,3010 support. EUR USD is in an downtrend directed by 4H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Oscillators are neutral. The downtrend should resume with more vigor.. The target is expected at 1,2850. The price should find a resistance below 1,3015. We could take a short position at 1,3010. We will put the stop loss above 1,3040 (-30 pips). The major target is 1,2850 (+160 pips). This is a dangerous trade, take care and put your stop loss.
Medium term (Daily)
EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. RSI goes out overbought state and give a negative signal. The price should consolidate.
Long terme (Weekly)
EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should resume with more vigor..
Resistances
1,3010 - 1,3080 - 1,3120
Supports
1,2970 - 1,2850

Short term (Intraday)
102,62. USD JPY is in a range between 102,00 and 103,00. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The target is expected at 102,00. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum.
Long term (Weekly)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by Weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should resume with more vigor..
Resistances
102,60 - 103,00
Supports
102,20 - 101,80 - 100,00