THIS SHARE WILL BE WORTH 3.00 IN 2009

The recent (fantastic!), rise was due to "Bid approach" - and naturally there is a period of excitement - But, slowly folks don't believe a bid will come. However, IF a bid came, it would be below the value the buyer places on the business . . . . so, what value do you think is here?

- - - - - - - - However, the company hasn't changed! - - - - - - - - -

If you liked it before, it's still OK.
FWIW I hold.

As there has been no offer made public yet, I can say with some certainty, it will be on Tuesday 23rd Sept. How do I know, because before the market opens on that day I will be on route to Egypt. The last 3 important milestones in my portfolio companies have all occurred when I have been out the loop so to speak.
Also on return from my last 5 holidays my portfolio has been down.
I am beginning to think it's a conspiracy.

Thanks for letting us know Greekman! Hope you don't miss out while away this time around

Thanks.

A sad sad story ----- its all over for another few years chaps..

My take for what it's worth.

In situations such as this (10% price fluctuation) although as I understand it a company does not have to release a statement, unless instructed by the LSE to do so, they usually do, if only to state, 'The company know of no reason why the price has fluctuated by (such and such) an extent'.
But as due diligence is presumably going on they can not say much else unless any potential approach has been withdrawn.
I also feel the sp drops of late are due to those that thought, 'Takeover offer approach, figures within days, all done and dusted within a week'.
I still strongly believe all still in progress.
Just hope I do not have to eat the proverbial Humble Pie, as if it does fall through, for a while thats all I will be able to afford to eat.

Greekman: our patience rewarded (and before your holiday!) - go to link below for full statement.

The terms of the Recommended Offer have been agreed on the basis of a price of 206 pence for each existing BTG Share and a price of 60 pence for each Protherics Share which values the Protherics Fully Diluted Share Capital at approximately 218.1 million.

On this agreed basis, the Recommended Offer represents a premium of 45.5 per cent. to the Closing Price of a Protherics Share of 41.25 pence on 17 September 2008 (being the Business Day prior to this announcement) and a premium of 92.0 per cent. to the Closing Price of a Protherics Share of 31.25 pence on 12 August 2008 (being the Business Day prior to the announcement by Protherics regarding potential offers for Protherics).


BTG reaches agreement with PTI

Yes as you say before my holiday.
My own personal view is that I would have liked PTI to have gone it alone at least for a few more years. Also it is not yet a done deal, as it is only a recommended deal. Hopefully Acza Zeneca will come back with a better offer although as the deal is recommend and there has been nothing coming out of the Acza camp, it looks like (to my surprise) it is not interested.
At 60p per PTI share I don't think much to it.
Also remember there were others showing interest and as no RNS has been issued stating any have withdrawn interest, methinks a further cash or share deal is still out there.
Keeping very rough figures I find that if deals go through the final figure is usually between a 15% to 25% premium to the initial offer figure. If it becomes a competition of suitors then it is often up to 30%. We can only hope.
Still there won't be much us small holders can do as it will be own to the big boys, although I for one will vote against any deal less than 80p per share.

well 60p but really 50p today - what a waste of effort, just hope thebgc price rises as the market realises its got the sale of the century!!

Don't know of many deals that are settled on the first price recommended. Would like to have seen the usual release first, IE 'Protherics have been offered equivalent to 60p per share for the company by BTG. The company will not be recommending the offer as we believe it does not reflect the true value of Protherics'.
Was this the first offer?, and if so why is it being recommended. This is going against the normal trend of Takeovers.

Just read the full document re the takeover offer on the Protherics web site.
Interesting read and a good sales pitch re the increased marketing power. Also makes it clear that there are no more offers in the pipeline, others either withdrawn or just not viable.
Would still have thought that the offer price would have been a bit higher, but as said a good read, and the tie up does look promising.

Regards Greek.

Just a thouht.
Protherics sell to BTG. AstraZeneca sit on the sidelines watching value of each to drop, then step in to takeover the bigger BTG once all the fire has died down.
OK unlikely but as many including myself have said, can't understand why Astra who are liable to pay licensing payments to PTI and could snap both Protherics and BTG up with their petty cash don't appear interested.
Surely they can't think PTI was not worth 60p plus.
Would like to have seen the list of the potential buyers of PTI and the amounts offered, jut to see if Astra had been sniffing around.
Like I said, Just a thought.

Let's look at the alternatives for PTI -
1) The AstraZ link is known and presumably satisfies both parties. If AZ wanted to buy PTI, they've had plenty of insight and opportunity.
However, the price might become rather higher than PTI is valued by their shareholders - so AZ would be fearrful they'll be over a barrel and pay too much. IF then PTI drugs failed, then AZ bosses would collect the wooden-spoon award and maybe lose their job/pension .
This aspect tends to keep large-Co's away from a full t/o. . . . . Nothing to do with shareholder-value, you understand - plain self-interest. . . . .
2) Go it alone - PTI execs will become household-names, riches, options, pensions beyond their dreams . . . . but their chances are slim in BioTech....so it is likely only a dream! Execs put a brave-face on this risk to their future!
3) A tie-up with another partner that's not too big, but "big-enough" - So, the lucky exec(s) retain a job (to steer the PTI-angle)- and being part of a large Co means they can grow into other areas......become rich and still receive most of the benefits of "going it alone!" - but with much less risk of real failure . . . . even if the PTI-angle fails they are likely to have got their feet under the table and have other irons in the fire.
4) Tie-up with a big finance co - the trouble here is the financiers will want to run the tech - take all the benefits and the PTI-Execs will become lab-technicians (in their eyes!)....also there is a tech-risk the big co will steer for quick- profit, rather than a long-term feel-good. In effect, PTI would cease to be...very soon.

With BTG
Firstly (some?) PTI-execs retain their technology-control, maybe even gain access to additional expertise. They can swagger along with a larger badge, yet still have most of the benefits they hoped-for.
In effect it also removes many possibility of failures - either related to a Drug-Trial scuppering Market sentiment (ie forever!), - or being taken-out due to a severe Market reaction to events, say in Wall-Street.

Frankly, I think this is an excellent result for PTI (which I hold, in a minor way) - - - what I'm not so sure about is why BTG has fallen so much, on what looks like a WIN-Win deal. . . . . . Isn't this a share-based deal?

Perhaps I'm missing something but I thought the combined co was to have more cash than BTG had - - so doesn't that mean their cash-piles are combined?

If it's a buy-out, and BTG needs to raise cash, (e.g. by a rights issue), then it's not good in the climate we have today. BTG is my no1 holding, although somewhat battered of late; with daft comments from "Shares" - indeed this combination will make for a stronger pipeline, revenue and "excitment" stock . . . so I should be welcoming this "instant" growth, although there is likely an element of Dilution.
-BUT-
Since we've not seen any "return" any dilution is notional - and as the combined Co is likely to generate more income, the possibility of a return is somewhat nearer! That has to be good, even for LT holders.
(Some of BTG- recent fall is folk bolstering their cash position, due to general market woes and offsetting of losses, elsewhere I suppose.)
+This PTI-move appears to be out-of-the-blue - -- unless any of you heard a rumour- yes I know BTG was suggested mid-August08, but it died away and no RNS, etc . . . . so I suspect this was a "lucky chance" speculation, due to JB being on both Boards, for example - as it made little difference to PTI investors then, did it?

Could another bid arrive? - well yes, but it would have to satisfy the above points that PTI-Execs won't lose-out . . . . and that (this other bidder) won't be paying too much (esp in these woe-days!) . . . . so maybe an existing tie-up is sufficient. By keeping this deal sweet, AZ can add-value later and if the future is bright, then AZ will benefit from earlier arrangements - - - something about "better the d..." =so AZ can remain connected at zero risk (to their Execs).
Another bidder might find the AZ connection soured and this will reduce the value of PTI, either by "time" - or- "cost".... etc.
AZ will have thought of a rival snatching PTI away. So, I suspect BTG is "not seen" in this light.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . One must never forget the "self-interest" rooted in us all.

well it may not be over - things looking up agian

If you wish to follow all the takeover rule re PTI, 8.3's don't both on this site as their suppliers don't deem them important enough. See competitors for info.

Even in todays market a close of 11.11% down is strange on no news to say the least.
Was OK till just past 1100 hrs then bang.
Of course no part of the market is privy to something we don't know, are they!

As I see it, this IS merging with BTG - there is no other game in town....the merger is good for BOTH companies, and will result in a stronger whole.

Falls are across the Market, so this is hardly a surprise...BTG has fallen also, since the ann. - but of the two PTI looks the better Buy, but this should even-out as the day dawns.

Hi Hangon,

Whilst agreeing that there were obviously falls across the market, a fall of over 11% did not follow the trend, especially as the drug/bio sector only dropped 3.1%.
Still as they say, 'We are forever mushrooms'.
As to it being a done deal, fully agree as it won't be the PI's that get the say, it will be the big boys who have already provisionally agreed.
In the long term it may well be the tie-up will benefit all shareholders. My reasons for not wanting such a tie-up is that Protherics are in my high risk/blue sky portfolio, so these shares were bought on the hope that they would multiply several times over, obviously excepting the risk of loosing all.
I follow all shares in my high risk strategy with this in mind, so yes I agree the Protherics shares will move into safer more stable territory, but as they will then fall out of my strategy (high risk/reward) the excitement this portfolio gives me will diminish.
A bit like the excitement you have when you bet on a long shot at high odds, yes the chances of winning are low but, well you get the picture.
Still a steady increase/profit obviously won't go amiss, which I agree will happen.
Hope the above makes sense!

Regards Pond

I think the merger is the best thing that could happen to BOTH companies - andd maybe cut a few Execs (PTI is somewhat overloaded, IMHO) - and BTG has plenty of cash and more to come at least in the short-term.

As I may have mentioned before PTI has expertise in selling into USA and I understand the combined co will be developing their own team ( but this might be support?) - and this is likely to improve the value of Varisolve - a product that has taken far too long to arrive. Hopefully it will get approval....and the US-connection (with the Rattlesnakes) will enhance their chances - er, IMHO.
Greekman, Thankyou for yr support.... esp.as I've bought a few more PTI recently, on the basis they were "marginly" better value for the same cash. Any mergers create uncertainty and has risks, but normally it is done to enhance one company's turnover ( and darn the cost!) - but here it's a paper-exercise so little cost to funds.... and a strong player for some exciting products.

Cheers Hangon,

Time will tell as they say. Moneys, money no matter how it comes, PTI as an independent or as the tie-up with BTG.
Looking down the line, in a couple of years, if this tie-up is looking the better deal (although it will not be that easy to tell) I will gladly admit I was wrong.

Regards Greek.