cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
HARRYCAT
- 22 Sep 2008 15:07
- 2783 of 21973
Just an opinion, but worth a mention:
"The bottom of the bear market has probably been left behind but it could take until mid-2009 before a bull market takes off, Morgan Stanley says in a European equity strategy note.
'There is a good chance that the low point of this bear market has been reached,' the Wall Street bank says. 'This is not the start of the next bull market, and earnings weakness will be the driving factor again at some point in the next few quarters.'
'The fundamental outlook for some critical elements remains troublesome,' it says, citing an earnings recession, banks' balance sheet repair and falling U.S. house prices.
'The next bull market can only start one, maybe two quarters before these aspects bottom out, which we believe will be at the end of 2009.'
'Now we are in the 'bumping-along-the-bottom-phase' during which fundamentals do not improve but new lows are not made,' Morgan Stanley says.
Reuters Messaging rm://peter.starck.reuters.com@reuters.net
cynic
- 22 Sep 2008 15:13
- 2784 of 21973
do you believe the above Harry?
anyway, meanwhile, Dow is hovering around the 11275 support .... which way next?
doubled up at 11255 ..... smart move? .... we shall see
HARRYCAT
- 22 Sep 2008 15:46
- 2785 of 21973
I think they are working on the 5 year cycle, peak to peak.
Anyway, they are an Investmant Bank. Surely they can't get it wrong??? ;o)
cynic
- 22 Sep 2008 16:34
- 2786 of 21973
current indication is that shorting Dow again was def a smart move
HARRYCAT
- 22 Sep 2008 17:15
- 2787 of 21973
DOW now down 203 points.
Well done Cynic. I suspect you have made enough money today to buy another case of Chateau something or other!
cynic
- 22 Sep 2008 17:48
- 2788 of 21973
(a) i already have too much fine wine and (b) seriously fine wine - i.e. 1st growths - cost very serious money nowadays!
cynic
- 22 Sep 2008 20:30
- 2789 of 21973
Wall Street now down 300+
London, having fallen about 100 during hours, is currently indicating only a modest further 35 point fall for the morrow, which may prove to be a touch optimistic.
at least i have some useful profits from my Dow shorting ..... as forecast!
Strawbs
- 22 Sep 2008 20:33
- 2790 of 21973
I hope you're not being one of those evil short selling Spivs Cynic. ;-)
Strawbs.
Strawbs
- 22 Sep 2008 21:01
- 2791 of 21973
As I said on Friday (post 2704):
"Many I fear will pile in today, perhaps misguided in the belief that financials are now safe with short sellers gone. The problems remain though. If the falls are more about a lack of buyers, than a mass of short sellers, we could be about to see a final exhaustion of the bulls, before that big drop I've been expecting."
Tomorrow will be interesting.
(Still) In my opinion...
Strawbs.
cynic
- 22 Sep 2008 21:06
- 2792 of 21973
only short of Dow, which i have now closed at a very tasty profit for the evening ... have actually opened a long with a reasonable stop in place, just in case all continues to tumble
looked to short SOLA, but not possible in either staright stock or ADRs, as has been the case for 2/3 weeks now
jkd
- 23 Sep 2008 01:12
- 2793 of 21973
HC
funny how such tops and bottoms are called at strategic technical chart levels, yet never seem to be referred to or reasons explained.
go do some and see the reasons.
dyor
regards
jkd
dealerdear
- 23 Sep 2008 12:34
- 2794 of 21973
Total loss of confidence atm.
Let's hope the Senate approves the proposals and quickly otherwise we are going to have total capitulation and a destoyed financial system.
cynic
- 23 Sep 2008 12:45
- 2795 of 21973
Senate will assuredly do the necessary as they know the stakes .... however, as i posted earlier on HBOS thread (i think), there was "lemming delusion" that this massive bailout was the panacea for all ills ..... of course it isn't, but it's a good start towards stabilisation - or at least we all hope so ...... that does not mean there will not be some pretty hairy moments, rather like yesterday
dealerdear
- 23 Sep 2008 12:56
- 2796 of 21973
Agreed but stabilisation is what we need and bloody quickly!
At least then the strong companies will survive and the weak will succumb. At the moment the baby has well and truly been thrown out of the bath water.
Strawbs
- 23 Sep 2008 13:19
- 2797 of 21973
Is it better to have a high wobbling tower of finance, or a stable one in pieces at your feet? Sometimes the fastest route to stability is to let nature takes it's course. Just make sure your standing on the right side when the tower falls....
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
dealerdear
- 23 Sep 2008 13:31
- 2798 of 21973
If the tower falls the pieces won't be at your feet, you'll be buried alive by them along with the rest of us!
Strawbs
- 23 Sep 2008 13:33
- 2799 of 21973
Actually I was thinking of standing on top with a parachute.... :-)
Strawbs.
dealerdear
- 23 Sep 2008 13:40
- 2800 of 21973
lol Look below!!
That's me holding on to your ankles ...
cynic
- 23 Sep 2008 14:09
- 2801 of 21973
just shut Dow long at 11054 for small profit .... once the market decides where it is going, i may jump back in, but 11000 could easily be challenged at the opening
cynic
- 24 Sep 2008 06:51
- 2802 of 21973
all over the place last night, closing with a sharp fall to around 10840, an important support level ..... however, interesting to note that o'night indications have pushed Dow up by 125 to 10970, so it will be interesting to see if that holds or even improves ..... Buffett's injection of $5bn into Goldman will certaily have helped sentiment
imo, last night's fall was ridiculous, presumably stoked by an irrational fear that the Senate will not pass the rescue package ...... they may make life difficult, but pass it they will!