http://www.thisismoney.com/news/columnists/article.html?in_article_id=399226&in_page_id=19
Big rewards, big risks in poker deal
27 March 2005
ONLINE poker is a red-hot sector for investors. The possible flotations this year of Party Gaming - the company behind the world's most popular poker website - and internet casino owner Cassava have captured the imagination.
Party Gaming, which owns the Party Poker site, could boast a price tag of 3bn, enough to see it into the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip companies.
Fuelled by lottery-style jackpots offered via online tournaments, the global online poker market is enjoying spectacular growth. It was worth 318m in 2003, 750m last year and is expected to be 1.2bn in 2005. Operators take a cut from each pot, known as the rake. So the more poker hands played, the greater the profit.
A leading UK-listed operator offering excellent exposure to all this action is Sportingbet. It was a large, unloved sports bookmaker until last year's 169m purchase of Paradise Poker.
That transformed Sportingbet, led by chief executive Nigel Payne, adding 775,000 new customers, taking its total to 2.2m, while providing a kicker to the shares. Like its new owner, Paradise's main market is America, where nearly three-quarters of its player base comes from.
Paradise is ranked four in the world but should benefit from being the only live poker site with a sports betting operation. Over time that should also help to protect Paradise's margins, currently a mind-boggling 64%. By contrast the sports betting side has much lower margins - about 5%. Analysts reckon Paradise's profits will overtake those of Sportingbet's core business by next year.
Midas verdict: This is a tough call. The main risk is regulatory. Online poker's legal status in the US is unclear. Some law-makers argue it is a game of skill and should not be legislated like other gaming. But the Justice Department sees it as a game of chance and has stymied efforts to licence internet poker, arguing it violates several federal laws, including the 1961 Wire Act.
Sportingbet is also exposed to the weak dollar and there is also the risk that online poker may be just a passing fad. Sportingbet's shares have had a tremendous run, touching 349p this month before retreating to 271p as profit-takers moved in. But with brokers forecasting pre-tax profits this year of 53m rising to 78.5m in 2006, the stock trades on an undemanding price to earnings ratio of 20 dropping to 15. Having fallen by more than a third from their recent peak, we see an opportunity to invest and recommend a speculative buy