Hi All,
Another great pick by
http://www.lemminginvestor.com a small part of their analysis is below, sign up to lemminginvestor to get the full report and a lot more, very good value for money.
Emerald Energy official website
http://www.emeraldenergy.com/
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At Emerald, production is rising quickly. It has roughly doubled and redoubled each half year since the original output of 750 bopd in H1 '04, and bids to repeat the trick again reaching more than 6000bopd = x8 times well before end 2005, then possibly, or nearly, double again in H1 2006.
Not many companies of any kind can demonstrate a x12- x16 times multiple increase in output over five successive half years.
Five producing wells have come on stream in only four months, and are producing 1200 bopd between them on natural flow, two at Campo Rico and three in the new field Vigia, These will be worked up to four times their current output over the next six months by fitting downhole pumps and installing proper provision for taking off this extra volume. Eight wells are envisaged for the Fortuna field in 2006, beginning with the spudding of Silphide1 at end Q4 2005
crudely speaking at current total production of 3,700bopd, they show a profit rate of $2.51m/month, which rises/falls by $53.300/month for every $1 rise/fall in the price of oil.By the end of the year if Llanos basin + Fortuna etc production increases from current 3000 to 6000 bopd, as the company has predicted, plus the constant output of 715 bopd from Gigante, my figures suggest that monthly profit rises to $4.3m/month - a rate of $52m/pa.
That's roughly 30m/pa, at the start of '06, continuing to look even better with highly probable exploration successes to come in the already proven Fortuna and El Algarrobo fields, where drilling begins in Q4 and a further 8 wells at least are planned. These wells will be low-cost, low-risk, expected to cost less than $1m each. The company has more than enough cash to fund this work. $26,346,000 at end 2004, according to Evolution and $16.5m now. However the increased rate of production and the much higher price of oil suggest H2 profits will be higher by $13m, without an increase in drilling costs, thus plugging the cash drain.
That makes an eventual 10 share price target highly plausible for a PE if rated in the high 'teens, once people stop factoring in exceptionally cautious, low prices for the price of Brent, and the company releases proper reserve figures - the Vigia field has just been assessed at 13m barrels in place and Fortuna may have 30m compared with the understated total of 13m recorded in the Annual Report.
At a modest $10/barrel in the ground, that is more than three times the company's capitalisation.The City also needs to wake up to the new management's existing, successful and repeatable strategy of drilling low cost, low risk wells in proven oil fields - six this year, conceivably more next year.
We disagree strongly with Evolution's latest forecast of only $22m sales for the FY. This is just double our figure for H1. Since production is about to double, the broker's forecast may be imputing a strong set back in the price of oil, in complete contradiction to world authorities we have quoted above on the subject
Will history repeat itself, as EEN will hopefully now be heading for the value they had 8 years ago ....