Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Petrel Resources (PET) Asked if nationalistic Iraq, resenting the US & global oilcos, is grooming PET into
a "BIG BEAST". DH replied: "that is exactly what is happening"

Oil Down And Out Not Likely

http://www.fatprophets.co.uk/content.aspx?page=OIL%2c+Fat+167

FUNDY ..... not as pessimistic as you, though i c from where you got your support ..... much more simplistically, one could also argue support at about 1100, again at 1000, and of course at 900

Elliott Wave Analysis 04-Jan-2007 Crude Oil

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LoUPapbyEU&mode=related&search=

Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction' (Update6)

http://www.bloomberg.co.uk/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azQIiqfEPt8g&refer=home

cynic

not pessimistic as such about the companies prospects just where the markey may take it on falling oil prices, any closer to 1000p and ill be looking to start to buy back in, cant see oil going much below $50 and certainly only short term if it does

VPC trading update last week gave a good guide to how some of the north sea oil fields that dana have a share in performed

Oil surges on US plan to boost stockpile

Tue 23 Jan, 2007 20:19


By Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil jumped over 4 percent to $55 a barrel on Tuesday as the United States announced plans to build up its emergency crude reserves and as colder weather pushed up demand in the world's top consumer.

U.S. crude last traded up $2.42 to $55.00 a barrel after trading as high as $55.15 earlier. London Brent crude was up $2.31 at $55.01.

U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman announced the government will buy 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil over a few months starting in the spring to add 11 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

In addition, President George W. Bush plans to call for a doubling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's capacity in his State of the Union speech Tuesday, the White House said.

"The market has turned a corner here. The plans to expand the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve seems to have been recognised as a bullish factor," Tim Evans, Citigroup Global Markets.

"The government can spin it any way they like, but the history, from the 1970's on, is very clear. During periods when the reserve is being increased, prices tend to rise."

U.S. President George W. Bush is also expected to announce Tuesday plans to reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 percent over 10 years and encourage development of alternative fuels to help wean the United States off foreign oil.

PRICE REBOUND

Warm U.S. temperatures in early January pushed crude to an 19-month low of $49.90 last week from over $61 a barrel in late December. But prices began to rebound as winter weather hit the U.S. Northeast, the largest heating oil market.

"There's a slow shift towards a focus on colder weather, and we may look back on this and see that a bottom in the market was being put in, but it's too early to tell," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at Fimat USA.

OPEC ministers believe the market will stabilise once it feels the full effect of the cartel's 1.7 million barrels per day output reduction. Oil has fallen 32 percent from its $78.40 record in July.

OPEC President Mohammed al-Hamli said a reasonable price for the group's crude basket is $55 a barrel -- at least $5 higher than the current level for the reference price, which is valued at a $5-$6 discount to U.S. crude.

"We are not panicking...concerned, I think, because we are embarking on huge investment programs and the price in that respect is very important because of the outlays," he said on Tuesday.

A poll of analysts ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data to be released on Wednesday showed the colder weather would likely caused an 800,000 barrel draw in distillate stocks, including heating oil.

The data was expected to show a 1.1 million barrel rise in crude stocks, a 1.3 million barrel build in gasoline inventories, and a 0.4 percentage point fall in refinery runs.

very good timing for dana after pomboo being another duster

Any reason why this is down so much today other than general weakness?

crockham
Yes general weakness, the price of crude, on LBC money slot today there was a money manager saying you will not see these prices for much longer now is the time to pile into oil stocks I agree it's only a matter of time before the inevitable bounce.

Merrill Lynch's latest note downgraded second half EPS expectations to 50p. This is based upon the lower than expected production from GKA (as per Ventures announcement), however they also said they expected reserve upgrades and have a target price of 1550p based on its NAV calcs.

Another factor imo is the lack of information released direct from Dana (always been a problem imo). Its often a case of finding out details through JV partners announcements and a lack of a trading update is disappointing

pretty bleak looking chart, as below ..... only real thing in DNX favour would seem to be rsi showing heavily oversold.

all the second-line oilies are out of favour ...... even TLW which came in (i thought) with a pretty strong trading update, have not moved



for added gloom, dead cross looks likely to form in near future

green = 50 dma
red = 25 dma
black = 200 dma

Many thanks for that info.
Fundy, I know you follow this one closely. In view of your comments, do you feel it is nearing bottom? The chart is not very comforting and does not appear to have reached any sort of resistance level

arguably some support about 1005 ..... below that, could not spot anything significant until perhaps 900

Crockham

have held these since approx 200p until quite recently and yes still follow very closely. Long term still like the proposition but im not a fan of catching falling knifes. Personally can see these reaching 900p if we receive no news in the interim (whether that be company specific or a rising oil price) though any turn in the chart and i will be looking to accumulate. Would like to hear a company trading statement rather than Merrill Lynchs view based on chats with management (i hate this information flow route)

From a chart perspective support appears at 900p and this is also the downside target for the current point and figure chart

You have to bear in mind that Dana havent been overly forthcoming with news flow and recent drilling campaigns have been disappointing so an SP fall shouldnt be a huge shock

Announcing Long term incentive plan shares for directors after the market close on a friday doesnt endear the mgmt to the shareholders too much

Dana Petroleum PLC
02 February 2007


For Immediate Release 2 February 2007


Dana Petroleum plc (the 'Company') Grant of Awards under the New LTIP

Dana Petroleum plc reports that on 1 February 2007 it granted the following
conditional nil cost share awards to the Executive Directors under the Dana
Petroleum plc 2006 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the 'LTIP') which was approved by
shareholders at the Company's EGM on 26 September 2006.

In accordance with the rules of the LTIP, these conditional awards were granted
on 1 February 2007 at a price of 10.20 per ordinary share (the official
mid-market closing share price on the London Stock Exchange on the preceding
dealing day) as follows:

Executive Director Number of Ordinary Number of Ordinary Executive
Shares subject to the Shares subject to Shares
Level 1 LTIP Award Level 2 LTIP Award

T P Cross 106,575 106,575 31,439

D A MacFarlane 27,798 27,798 8,200

S M Paton 20,686 20,686 6,103

The shares subject to Level 1 and Level 2 LTIP awards (the 'LTIP awards') will
only be released to the Executive Directors in three years time subject to their
continued employment and the satisfaction of the following conditions:-
- Level 1 LTIP awards will be proportionately forfeited if some or all
of the Executive Shares are not retained for the three year period.
- None of the LTIP awards will be released unless the Company's average
annual ROCE over the period is at or above 10% (the 'Threshold Condition').
- Once the Threshold Condition has been satisfied. 30% of the shares subject
to LTIP awards will be released for median comparative total shareholder
return performance, 65% for upper quartile performance with full release at
upper decile comparative performance.

Executive Shares are ordinary shares in the Company purchased or committed to be
purchased by the relevant Executive Director in order to be eligible to be
granted a Level 1 LTIP award.

Too much to ask for them to update on the latest licensing awards
Venture Production awarded 2 blocks in UK's 24th licensing round
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Venture Production PLC said it has been awarded two blocks in the UK's 24th licensing round.

The Aberdeen-headquartered company has been awarded Block 49/10c in the Southern North Sea and part of Block 21/17, within the Greater Kittiwake Area, owned 50 pct by Venture and 50 pct by Dana Petroleum PLC.

It added that Block 49/10c is a candidate for near-term development, with a part of the block expected to be developed in late 2007 or 2008, while Dana will be operator of Block 21/17 during the exploration phase.

appears to have bounced off support at 1030 with help from recent oil price increases

Fund
You back in yet it's getting a bit lonely in here.

no, should have bought in this morning but was still in bed :-(

have updated the chart for you (post 291).
imo, not too much margin between today's sp and potential resistance on 25 dma