halifax cant see the wood from the trees! coundnt of wrote it beter myself
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/06/cxmktrep106.xml
Falklands oil explorers tap Aim market investors' enthusiasm
By Ben Bland
Last Updated: 1:03am BST 06/05/2008
If a lack of liquidity is Aim's biggest problem, then the Falkland Islands oil explorers are fortunate to be blessed with the interest of thousands of excitable retail investors.
Port Stanley, Falkland Islands: the shares
of oil prospectors in the region have soared
In March, I wrote about the Falklands oil mania that was sweeping the market after one of the prospectors, Desire Petroleum, announced that it had signed up an unnamed farm-in partner. Since then, the feverish atmosphere has refused to die down.
While the Aim All-share index is down just over 1pc since mid-March, Borders & Southern has surged by 33pc, Rockhopper Exploration has soared by 26pc, Desire Petroleum has leapt by 24pc and Falkland Oil & Gas has jumped by 18pc. That is despite the fact that there has been a distinct lack of earth-shattering news from any of the four companies hoping to find commercially exploitable reserves of oil off the Falklands.
"Most of the share prices have been detached from reality," said one analyst who covers the sector.
More on oil
Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) is the only company to have a publicly confirmed, heavy hitting partner - BHP Billiton, the mining and oil and gas giant. FOGL is exceptional in other ways, with an investor base that is much more institutional than retail (hedge fund RAB Capital has a 40pc stake). So, although analysts believe it is the closest of the four to starting drilling, FOGL has largely managed to steer clear of the market madness.
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While Desire has refused to name its farm-in partner until it has completed negotiations with the Falklands government, sources confirmed to The Daily Telegraph that it is Arcadia, the London-based oil trading group. Arcadia is partly owned by John Fredriksen, the Norwegian-Cypriot shipping billionaire who controls a number of oil services companies.
The talks with the Falklands government are taking longer than expected because Desire and Arcadia are also applying for a number of new exploration licences, the sources added.
News of the farm-in also boosted Rockhopper, which is working alongside Desire in the North Falklands basin (FOGL and Borders & Southern operate in the South Falklands basin).
Rockhopper's shares have doubled in value since the start of the year even though industry experts say it has been making "steady rather than spectacular" progress. This jump in the share price puts Rockhopper in a much stronger position if and when it goes back to investors to raise the money it will need for a drilling campaign. Market sources say that Rockhopper has already started talking to shareholders about the possibility of a large fundraising.
Managing director Sam Moody insisted that the company was "not in the process of raising money" at this stage. However, he admitted that Rockhopper was "pretty much at the end of its technical work programme" and would soon look at the farm-out market and the equity market as potential sources for the tens of millions of pounds it needs to fund even a basic drilling programme.
Despite the jump in Rockhopper's share price, Mr Moody dismissed the suggestion that his company has been pumped up by the retail investor mania. "We're still very cheap compared to the other three, 100m cheaper in terms of market value," he said.
He believes the re-rating of the Falklands oil prospectors is the result of investors' realisation that they are genuinely moving closer to starting drilling.
Yet he accepts that it is difficult to value companies that are effectively engaged in an all-or-nothing endeavour. "Our value is huge in the event of a discovery and rather low without one," he added. "The real current value is somewhere in the middle."