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Lmao.

I see you have been preeching on the Arian Silver thread

squirrel888 27 Jun'13 - 10:22 - 37969 of 37978 0 2
It is more concerning to see the UK digress into a quagmire of negativity & fratching. It deserves to have 1930's reset where everyone gets a big slap in their arrogant, self-rightious faces & start to learn to be hunble, show humility and re-learn to be humane.

The hypocrisy of your behaviour is fooling no one whenever you hear an opinion that doesn't align with yours. So pleased you have squelched me because you're nauseatingly arrogant and self righteous yourself...

Suggest you take a leaf out of your own book

Snurkle - yes that derivative level - especially the interest rate swaps is a very big ticking Kaboomer
- Italy's problems apparently stem from the days of complying with EU limits ets
- and guess what...SachsOFgold set up some "get round the rules" deferment derivatives (which are coming home to roost - hence expected need of a bailout - later this year0
- AND JUST FOR FUN - gues who was head of the Italian Central Bank....at the time
- yes - non other than (super Mario) Draghi...himself
- definite candidate for the Ken Livingstone - on a lampost a day until they get it right....treatment.

Squirrel - looking at that pecking order of Cyprus template shafting
- added to their 97.5% of "Total" liabilities - can be - bailed in
- I doubt after they have stolen most if not all the depositor, uninsured funds, they will not need the "ficticious" - EU bailout fund
(After all it is only iou/promises backing the fund - and they are given by the EU nations - the majority of which are already insolvent or in fact receiving bailouts themselves)
- and if the fund did have any funds & had to pay out....who picks up the tab ? - ...taxpayers
- smoke and mirrors illusion and deception.

good 54 page analysis - lots of charts - which paint ...thousand word pictures etc

(NB click the "X".... in the blue band at the bottom... - to close the blue bar - it then gives you access to the bottom scroll arrow....to move down the pages :o)

In GOLD We TRUST 2013 - Incrementum Extended Version

Nice one gaz.

Although I like this thread, from now on I will post most of my links and bits on the other side. It's crawling with rude newbies who are in dire need of education :-)

Joking aside, I don't want to double up posts on 2 blogs, but would like to reach as many other people as I can.

Snurkle - cheers

Re the
"would like to reach as many other people as I can"

The one thing I have learned in the last 12m

- is - all bar a handful of posters on ADVFN - most don't actually read what's posted
- and of those that do - even less... actually read ..the linked info
(How many - people post something you, yourself have posted..previously :o)

The other "proof of the pudding" in the last couple of months
- I posted that the T's were being crossed and I's dotted - by the B of E re putting the Cyprus "Template" here in the UK - since way back in....2011
(seemingly went uncommented on and un-noticed....as you might say)

Exactly the same - when I brought up the info from the Financial Stability Board - on progress in rolling out the template...globally,.. cross border, even for the T>B to fails, markets generally, insurance Co's etc

The evidence that - The Royal Society, Prime Ministers office and Gov't itself
-massively suppressed "The fact GMO's caused cancer, birth defects, sterility etc"
- discovered by "its own" - funded research
- suprisingly - gained... zilch notice either.

Hence, once "that penny dropped" the amount I posted over there was substantially reducing
- and the non active links (unless "white listed") - plus the ...no graphics/charts etc,( for non subsciption paying posters), was ultimately...just the icing on the cake as they say.

Much better facilities over here - but most regulars appear to have hung in there with whats left of, the skeleton, of the previously excellent advfn board, and as you imply
- not many moneyam members seen to be interested in "joining in" over here either :o)

But there's little point in "flogging a dead horse" here...or there,
- tho' great while it lasted.

And of course - a big thanks to...... squirrel
- for all the effort she put in ....in giving the alternative a whirl.

I know what you're saying and you are correct, but there are also a lot of lurkers who do read our stuff and who do seem to be interested in our opinions, articles etc.

I'll keep my eye on this thread and no doubt will seek refuge here when the battery of rude newbies get in my tits.

Gaz - you do yourself a terrible disservice; there are some of us who post rarely but follow both comments and links that the likes of you and the much trolled Peter barnes have posted over a long period. As some-one who hasnt got much time for searching innumerable sites for "nuggets" I really appreciate the efforts of those who do.
The alternative view perceived and posted by people like yourself is invaluable and would be sorely missed by a legion of lurkers like myself.(on both sites).
Please keep up the good work.

Glyn, I concur :-)

gaz,

I hope you will keep posting, either here or the other place, and I think you are mistaken when you say that people don't read your stuff. I look forward to your posts and read most of the links you provide, but it takes me all my time to digest and fully understand some of these articles, and I've always felt that any comment was for people much better informed than me.

I think it was you that put up the 'Cancer - The Forbidden Cures' link which I very much appreciated and I have pointed very many people in the direction of that clip.

Similarly, the info on colloidal silver was an absolute revelation to me, I had never heard of it and read loads after you brought it to the attention of the thread. I ended up buying a generator and distiller and making my own colloidal silver.

The silver and gold threads have been the sources of my real education and consequently are the places where I now seek reliable information, and there must be very many like me, so please don't think that your efforts are not appreciated and to no avail.

Many thanks.

mabel

I rarely post .
Interested in both the gold and silver thread on the other side originally but now reading moneyam as well.
I do like the gazkaz snurkle squirrel lemain peter barnes posts.
The gazkaz posts on tptb on health security etc issues I always read and even raise many of these with others .

So I will continue to follow and thanks for all the effort.

Don't throw your dummy out of the pram gaz, everyone reads your posts!

Glyn, Mabel TalkT, Snurkle
- many thanks for your appreciation. Your kind words have made my day.

I never thought there may be a non vocal element on the board, and sometimes it occasionally feels as though I am, effectively, - talking to myself.

So whatever your thoughts, please stick your TwoPenneth in.
It's as valid as anyone elses, until we get the benefit of the - glorious 20/20 hindsight.
- I have always found, if I say something and it literally gets shot down (hopefully eloquently or at least..politely) - in flames
- that I learn something from that process that..I otherwise wouldn't have
(and as it's an anonymous board...it's even better - as pride doesn't have to take it ,,,publicly on the chin either :o)

As over here there aren't the - post nothing themselves, but jump in and whinge about - off topics little flock of moaners.

- then it leaves the field wide open as to - silver related, economy
...or anything at all to do with the big picture....or the really big big picture of life.
(after all there is only so much - you can say purely on "just & only" silver).

So if you think it's interesting, please just speak your mind,
- or if you come accross something, that you weren't aware of - it might help enlighten me or someone else too.
- so put a few words of what and why, or copy and paste a salient part (or more)
or go for a whole essay, or rant
- any moaners - ignore them, engage them in debate, or politely ask them to
- put up something interesting or, return...from whence they came :o).

The more "stuff" there is on the board - the more me, or someone else gains in finding....how "it all" ticks and fits together

So lets give it a go, and see.... how it goes
(any other readers only - just say hi if you wish)

PS - Snurkle
- if you come across any of the groundshakers/BigBig hitters you come accross - if you have time just put a link over hers (wouldn't like to overlook those)

MaxK - lol - not the intention
(the sense of seemingly talking to yourself is, or at least imo - should be disconcerting)
- thanks for the vote.
(NB - you are on my speed read scan radar - stop & read list too).

Perhaps this end of the week depiction
- "could" signal a coming turning point

"In the know money" - on the move ?
- heading for the exits on - fixed rates (Int rate rises expected to ...speed up ?)
- or/and..... coupled with.... big equity fund outflows
- smart money ....heading for the bunkers ?

Bond Funds saw
- a massive $23bn of redepmtions in the latest week
- a record in absolute terms.
- The outflows were .....across every segment of the fixed..... income market
- are second only (in %of AUM) ......to the capitulative collapse that occurred after the October 2008 plunges
- and over 4 weeks ....an unprecedented..... $58bn of outflows.

All of this is providiung fodder for the mainstream media (and several hopeful strategists) that ......the great rotation
- 'must' have started.

However, as BofAML notes, there were .....$13.1 billion of outflows
- from equity funds (including $6.7 billion from pure long-only funds)
- the most since late April.
- It appears the money that ....has been 'rotated'... into stocks.... from money-market funds
- has merely .........reverted back into these.... safe-havens
- another reason why the powers that be .......would like to drastically reduce the access to these liquidity-sapping investment vehicles
- to keep the sheep..... in risk assets.
zh

From time to time it is necessary ......to quietly sit down
- and assess where we are going.

Sovereign revenues cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, support the imbedded costs of countries.
But investors of the world are in another reality altogether.
- They do not want to hear anything about these sorts of things.
- They are in the state of, "ignore and deplore."
- And - You can indeed - live there for a while.
- After all - Government induced fantasies have occupied the center stage before and for some time.
- But - Our current denial of reality..... is fueled by all of the money that the central banks have pumped into the world; but that...... will be diminishing as the Fed and others examine the longer term consequences of their actions.

- There are always consequences.
- What has been put off ......will arrive.

It was always....... just a matter of time.

The BIS (World Central Bankers - to THE central banks)
- and might have a degree of insight - into trouble - dead ahead
- and....strangely - if you read it thro
- who is.....to blame/how & why.

Quotes from...their report

BIS fears.... fresh bank crisis from.... global bond spike
- Soaring bond yields ...across the world
- threaten... trillion of dollars.... in losses for investors
- and a fresh financial crisis.... unless banks are braced for the shock
(erm imo - that's - a no they're not)

Losses on US Treasury securities alone .......will reach $1 trillion
( if average yields rise by 300 basis points)
- with even greater damage.... in a string ....of other countries.
- The loss could range from ...15pc to 35pc of... GDP i
-i n France, Italy, Japan, and the UK.
“Such a big upward move can happen....... relatively fast,”
(The BIS in its annual report, citing.... the 1994 bond crash).

“Someone..... must ultimately........ hold the interest rate risk.
- As foreign.... and domestic banks
- would be among those experiencing the losses,
- interest rate increases pose risks ......to the stability of the financial system
(if not executed with great care).”

The warning comes after ......US Federal Reserve
- set off the most dramatic spike in US borrowing costs.... for over a decade
( with talk of early exit from quantitative easing (QE), sending tremors through the global system).
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries has jumped 80 basis points since the Fed began to talk tough two months ago, closing at 2.51pc recently.

"authorities must press ahead with monetary tightening
- regardless of bond worries,
- warning that QE and zero rates are.........
- already doing more harm than good.
- The longer they go on, .......the greater the dangers.

“Central banks cannot do more.......
- without compounding the risks ..............they have already created,” .

Describing monetary policy as “very accommodative globally” ,
- it warned that the “cost-benefit balance is .......inexorably becoming less and less favourable.”

The BIS said
- monetary stimulus .......has created..... a host of problems,
including “aggressive risk-taking”, “the build-up of financial imbalances”, and further “misallocation of capital”.

It said
- the central bank mantra.... of doing “whatever it takes” to boost growth
- has outlived its usefulness,
- and
- has left the Fed, the Bank of England, and others, ....stuck.... with $10 trillion in bonds.
“Central banks cannot repair the balance sheets of households and financial institutions. Central banks cannot ensure the sustainability of fiscal finances,” it said.

The BIS said
- leaders have put off the reforms needed to clear out dead wood and unleash fresh energy.
- Productivity growth in the rich states has dropped from 1.8pc between 1980-2000, to 1.3pc from 2001-2007, to just 0.7pc from 2010-2012. It has turned negative in Britain and Italy.

“Extending... monetary stimulus
- is taking the pressure off those.... who need to act.
- In the end, only a forceful programme of repair and reform will return economies to strong and sustainable real growth,”

“Public debt in most advanced economies
- has reached .....unprecedented levels in peacetime.
- Even worse,
- official debt statistics ......understate the...... true scale of fiscal problems.
- The belief that governments do not face a solvency constraint.....
- is a dangerous illusion.
Bond investors can and do...... punish governments hard and fast.”
(& of course - the sheeple ....pay the punishment)

So a glowing opinion from the Banker to the Central Banks
- of just how fine and dandy things are (No pending financial collapse/crisis in there then)

And their - further glowing opinion...of the Central Bankers....efforts ?

- (“Central banks cannot do more.......without compounding the risks ..............they have already created,”) . And..
- (QE and zero rates are.........already doing more harm than good. - The longer they go on, .......the greater the dangers).
- (monetary stimulus .......has created..... a host of problems)

Well no one can accuse them - "That They didn't Warn Us"
....and in... 8ft Bright Red Letters too.

Keep on truckin gazz, much appreciated.

btw, from the advfn board:



maxk
28 Jun'13 - 20:48 - 27515 of 27522 0 0 edit


Well, I just snagged another 100 ounces @ £18.05 per.

Watch it tank now :-(




But it didn't....somethings amiss here.

I think charts and their analysis have their place, and uses in - normal(ish) times,
- but
- In the light of the Iceland wieout, the decimation of Ireland, the PIIGS sovereign bailouts, the Greek haircuts, the Cyprus grand shearing of the sheeple
- the Cyprus template put in place in the UK (& Co-Op using it) - in Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan etc
- the template...being...put in place for global cross border use - for the global too big to fails etc
(& how the charts and analysis faired in - predicting....the Lehman/AIG moment)

How useful they are...at the moment...I will leave you to decide.

That said, whilst history doesn't repeat - if frequently rhymes
- so here's some charts & thoughts from a very nice man at Citi Bank's....legwork and thoughts.


Gold and Silver appear to be in the process of finding a bottom; however, the price action could continue to be choppy in the coming weeks.
- Ultimately we expect both precious metals to move much higher in the long term
- with the potential for ....Silver to be the outperformer,
(as was the case from 2008 to 2011).




Our original target for this Gold correction was $1,260,
- which was the target of the double top. This would also have resulted in the same high to low move on a percentage basis as seen in March – October 2008.

Gold has overshot that target,
- though only slightly (the 2008 high to low correction was 34% while this one has been 36%). The bottoming process in 2008 can still serve as a template for
- what might still come for Gold:

•After rallying through September-October 2008, Gold made one final push down to a low 7.4% lower than the previous one
•After rallying through April, Gold has made a push lower and similar move to the last one in 2008 would suggest a bottom would be put in at $1,224. The low so far has been $1,221 and consolidation seems to be taking place.
Daily momentum is also at the most stretched level seen since the Gold correction in 2008

One important thing to note is that after posting the low of the correction on October 24, 2008, Gold did not immediately shoot up in a V-shaped bottom. Rather, it consolidated over the next 2-3 weeks and did not begin the next move higher until after turning off of the 76.4% retracement of the bounce off the lows and then breaking through the pivot.
- This suggests that if $1,221 is the low,
- we may still see some choppiness in the price action over the next few weeks.

BUT (They often have those)

Our only concern at this point is that the correction in Gold may be more like that seen from 1974-1976




The most important thing to note is that whether we are seeing a pattern more like 2008 or the 1970s,
- we do not see this as just the beginning of a bear market in Gold;
- rather, this should simply be another correction...... in the upward trend.
- This would be similar to what we saw in both of those time periods
- (a deep correction - setting up for the next move higher..... which would take Gold higher ......by multiples).
We still remain of the bias that Gold will find a bottom soon and that in doing so it will form the base for a new leg higher which can take Gold to our target of $3,400 - $3,500 by 2016.

I'll skip the inevitable - if, but maybe's & current event perhaps's (cover your ass bits)
- but - all in all,

- These dynamics continue to suggest to us that the long term trend of higher Gold prices is very much intact

And SILVER
Silver should also follow suit as it attempts to find a bottom.
- Once it recovers,
- it may actually be ..........the outperformer of the two…





As with Gold, we think the correction in Silver should end up being similar in magnitude to that seen in 2008.
- The 60% correction would suggest Silver bottoming around $19.75,
( though it has already overshot that level)
- . However, as with Gold, our bias is that Silver is in the process of bottoming
- before ......a more aggressive move higher,
- such as that seen after the correction in 2008.
( That suggests a move in Silver to.... over $100.... by 2016)



The Gold/Silver ratio shows that in the correction of 2008,
- Silver severely underperformed Gold (correcting 60% versus 34%).
- Then as both moved higher,

- Silver outperformed, rallying 488%...... versus 181% for Gold.

This correction again has seen Gold do better (less badly?) and the ratio is approaching resistance around 67, the 76.4% retracement of the 2009-2011 move lower.
- If Gold and Silver are bottoming, as we expect,
- than it would not be surprising for the ratio to begin to turn around the resistance area .....as well.

This would mean Silver could once again be the outperformer over the next few years.

So there we go - if..... history rhymes
(and gets the chance - before the train....perhaps comes off the tracks completely)

But
If all goes into meltdown (see Last post re BIS opinion) - all chart bets are off
- and after the carnage and crossfire of a meltdown clears ??
- it might just be a chart - with a ....straight up vertical line
(or maybe a steep parabolic up curve)

Max
- in the light of todays move - good choice
- in the light of the above charty stuff and analysis - looks like a good choice
- in the light of real metal premiums -vs- paper crimex (eg Vietnam Gov't gold auction - commanded premiums of just under $300...an ounce) - looks a good choice
- if you got hit with a - now signed off - Euro Cyprus template - good choice
- if there's a global meltdown - good choice
- Banksters now swinging - net long - so seems a good choice

Only downside seems - in the short term - watching the banksters paper price, & if they choose more taps (with a large 'ammer) - till they fill their boots..adequately.

The Morgue has had no deliveries into it's gold dealer side this year - and if it meets outstanding deliveries - it's minus... 90,000 oz
- GLD however seems to be hemoraging real metal - in multiple....tonnes
(probably - just a coincidence :o)