< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

This didn't help and is going to knock confidence again:
"An updated Competent Person's Report (CPR) of Barda Rash, carried out as part of the Company's annual reserves review, is expected to show a material reduction to previously published estimates of reserves and resources, essentially eliminating gross 2P reserves of 190 mmbbls and revising gross 2C resources from 1,243 mmbbls to around 250 mmbbls.
The movement in 2P and 2C reserves and resources has been due to the 2014 reprocessing of 3D seismic shot in 2012 and processed in 2013, alongside results from the Company's drilling campaign. Overall, the reservoirs have not performed according to previous expectations and the approved Field Development Plan (FDP). The wells have produced higher water cuts than expected and the Company has encountered operational challenges associated with the drilling of difficult complex fractured reservoirs. Production from these reservoirs could potentially be achieved with the implementation of recovery schemes requiring significant capital expenditure, which may well be appropriate for a company with a different strategic focus. Furthermore, while recent results at the field have indicated the presence of light oil accumulations from the deeper Triassic Kurra Chine reservoirs, these have a high level of associated Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S), which would require significant capital expenditure to develop. In light of the above, the Company is now considering its strategic options for the Barda Rash field."

What a shocker.

and 50p t/o looks pretty remote too
the previous reserve figures have a strong smell of rotten fish

Well worth a punt at these levels imo,typical overreaction.

error

12 Jan Canaccord... 27.00 Hold
12 Jan VSA Capital N/A Under Review
12 Jan Westhouse... 90.00 Neutral
12 Jan Deutsche Bank 60.00 Hold

Take your pick ,, you have to love canaccord ,the price is in the low 30's and their rec is 27p and hold . I can't think of anything they have got anywhere near right that i looked at last year , who pays these analysts and would they give me a job all that's needed is a dartboard .

Details of the Canaccord note:
"This is very disappointing and a significant negative for our view on Afren. Barda Rash accounted for 37p/sh (or 56%) of our 66p/sh risked Central NAV at our base case US $88/bbl LT Brent crude price and a 15% discount rate.
We have chosen to eliminate all value for Kurdistan, mainly Barda Rash and a modest contribution from the Ain Sifni block, from our NAV.
Our Central NAV at a 15% discount rate and using our US$88/bbl base case falls from 66p/sh to 27p/sh as a consequence of these changes.
We reduce our target price from 65p/sh to 27p/sh and our rating from Speculative Buy to HOLD on the assumption that the stock will fall heavily today. Our risked Central NAV at a 10% discount rate, assuming debt can be refinanced in 2015, stands at 57p/sh providing some headroom for a takeover offer from a well funded acquirer.
Although we believe the business model of oil and gas develompent in Nigeria remains robust at low oil prices, Afren needs to refinance some debt in 2015 and progress on this front is of the utmost importance to the company’s future as a standalone entity. Seplat has made a highly preliminary approach to Afren and has until 19th January to make a firm offer under Takeover Panel rules. We also await updates on operational progress at the Ebok and Okwok projects where installation of platforms should be underway."

Be careful here.

totally disillusioned so out with a nasty loss
i really do not see this 50p bid materialising and that "reassessment" of resources just stank of fraud - or least the initial one did

It's so low now that I would have expected any holders to sit it out, unless you need the loss for CGT purposes. Many oilers are bombed out, but when crude starts to rise all of these should recover to some degree, imo.

the quality oilies will, but it seems to me that the value of the whole of AFR's reserves and everything else are seriously under question

Yes, you might be right. I was actually starting to think this might be worth buying, but will mull things over for a while.

Kurdistan cynic .

so .... ???? ..... why would you think AFR has not lied through its teeth all the way down the line?

It still has decent reserves in Africa ,unless of course they are lying about that

more to the pint .... which version of the truth has been sent out

They also have a fair amount hedged for this year , time will tell whether you bailed too soon or i'm going to take a bigger hit here .

Time will tell if right or wrong....... just topped up with a few at 27p

I maintain sub 20p. I maybe wrong. I don't know.

Credit Suisse cuts Afren to neutral from outperform, target cut from 92p to 54p, I don't understand, why a downgrade with their tp more than twice the current sp.
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