rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

it rather looks as though my comment a day or two ago about the deal being struck at midnight on friday may be quite close to the mark ...... meanwhile, the markets seem to be comparatively calm and have recovered off their opening lows ..... probable general concensus that a deal will be done - as of course it will be ..... as DD commented, let's just hope that it is a sensible deal and not just a weak fudge

I'm not sure it will be finalised by fri night as they seem to agree that a deal has to be made but cannot agree on who foots the bill:
"The plan circulated by Cantor calls for a mortgage-backed security insurance fund, rather than taxpayer-funded purchases of those securities. The plan calls on the Treasury to design a system to charge premiums to mortgage-backed security holders to finance this insurance, according to a fact sheet.
Republicans also seek to ``remove regulatory and tax barriers that are currently blocking private capital formation.'' It also suggests that regulators call on financial institutions to suspend dividends, along with other steps to address liquidity problems.
Cantor said the House Republican proposal ``does not leave the American taxpayers with the bag and makes sure that Wall Street pays for this recovery.''
My guess is that they will be burning the midnight oil over the weekend as there is politcal face at stake here as well as reputations.

political farce more than face methinks

If they're not happy, and forced to sign something quickly, I dare say it'll be watered down. In a way I'm not surprised it's proving difficult to get concensus. One man has asked to be trusted with $700 billion of taxpayers money, with immunity from prosecution and oversight, to plough money into unspecifed debts. Big leap of faith for politicians, most of whom probably don't like G.W.B. They're bound to want to put in loads of caveats etc.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

it looks to be Bush's own party who are being obstructive ...... now why would that be? ..... surely not running scared of losing their seats in November, so making as much noise as possible, like the proverbial empty vessels, to try to show their electorate that they are doing "a grand job" - hahaha!

I know. Most of Bush's own party don't like him because of what he's done while president. They were asked to take a leap of faith going into Iraq, and look how that's turned out. I suspect there's plenty of old scores to settle before he leaves office.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

market is also recovering suggesting general agreement on a proper deal being done

Wouldn't be surprised to see it break down again later. Volatile times. Plus, does anyone want to risk a position over the weekend? If the announcement comes after markets close, there must be a distinct danger of a big gap up or down come Monday.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Talking of something else....just as worrying for President Bush is the storm out in the Atlantic "Kyle"....looks like a monster in the making....way off the South American coast at the moment....but which way is that going ?....in 10 to 14 days time that could be a major problem !...oil to shoot up at that time....we shall see !.

that's a minor prob for the moment

fun with Dow this evening ..... yippee! .... but would only play it monitoring 100%

many stocks have been hard hit of late, which is scarcely a surprise ...... however, with the US bailout 95%+ certain to be finalised by late evening tomorrow, monday could reverse an awful lot, albeit that it may be relatively temporary.

meanwhile, have left a relatively heavy long open on Dow, which should get monday off to a jolly start .... or jump over Beachy Head!

I assume you have a sensible stop in place. It's highly likely the proposal won't be passed in it's original form, although I dare say it will be in the same spirit, with phased chunks of money instead of 700 billion upfront, oversight etc. Expect the unexpected. Market reaction will no doubt depend on how fickle participants feel on Monday.

Many are expecting a big rally and easy profits, but if everyone is long into the weekend.... who's going to buy on Monday? Just a thought.

In my opinion.

Strawbs

strawbs
my very thoughts also. i do hope cynic has a parachute.
we would all miss him.
respect to you.
you have been saying through all the rises of 07 that you were fence sitting.
thats proven foresight, not hindsight.
and it is proven.
best regards to you
jkd

Thanks Jkd,

Cynic will no doubt remind me though that money in the bank may not be as profitable as money in the market. No way to be sure of course, but the right decision for me. People who can follow market movements all day may be more sucessful timing trades, but I still prefer the lazy route of following a trend until it ends. Volatile markets, and ones that move counter prevailing wisdom will only lead to money being lost as I see it. As someone once told me, protecting your money is sometimes the best investment you can make.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

strawbs
i once read somewhere, cant remember exactly, or i would acknowledge and give due credit.
anyway, it was something along the lines of this,
if you think trying to make money is hard and stressfull, wait until you've made it.
then compare that to trying to hold on to it.
regards
jkd

i'll let you all know, but don't be surprissed if i take at least some profit on Dow before even london opens ..... just for the record, i have stops in place which, even if hit, will leave me level from friday evening's trading

Too true,

Probably the ultimate reason that markets crash.

I've just been reading back through some of my previous postings to see if I really had much foresight! Think I wasn't alone, and I've clearly been cynical for a while. :-)

Hadn't realised I'd written this though:

Dubious Sell-Off Thread: 30 Jul 2007 16:02 - 714 of 1563

I think all these sharp corrections are the ripples of a much larger event waiting somewhere over the horizon. I'm not sure what it is, or even when it'll arrive, but I'm pretty sure it's coming. Everything up until now has been pretty much "predictable", meaning those that can, have been ready to short when oppertunity comes. The "crash" event will be unforseen though, probably something linked to credit (debt) in some way, but not necessarily obvious. With each of these ripples, investor sentiment is slowly erroded away, and with it market support. When the support has gone, even the smallest events can cause a crash. In my opinion......

Strawbs.


Question is. Are we there yet?

In my (still cynical) opinion.

Strawbs.

Strawbs, of course every comment you post (unless in parentheses) is 'in your opinion', do you really have to add the disclaimer to every post? Apart from that little irritation I find the comments on this thread very useful and generally informative. (PS I'm just naturally grumpy)

Sorry PT,

Just become a habit...

In my ..... :-)

Strawbs