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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 08:21 - 288 of 504

EMG - perhaps more by luck (strong US last night) than judgement, i see sp has (conveniently) bounced straight off notional 200 dma support .... still reckon this is a good compnay and in the long(er) run for sure i don't reckon maggie will suffer at all

maggiebt4 - 31 Jul 2007 10:58 - 289 of 504

Just as I was climbing to the top of that building things turned blue. Would agree with your thoughts Cynic now it has to stay there. Sadly the more you loose the more you have to crawl back. Another hard lesson, should have cut losses when dipped below 600. Think I'll be dead before I get the hang of this game :o)

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 11:15 - 290 of 504

not really .... sp is now 560 so significantly less than 10% below your magic number ...... i think the chart looks pretty good, always assuming Dow does not start getting silly again

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=EMG&Si

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 16:37 - 291 of 504

a good day at the ranch, capped by PRX announcing bid talks ..... let's hope Dow does not go into vertical spin and spoil it all.

very very clever peeps (like ms d) could or even will have made a bundle on the Dow this afternoon (or so they'll tell you) as it whizzes up and down in an 80 pt range ...... but all too scary and diff for an old codger like me

maggiebt4 - 31 Jul 2007 16:59 - 292 of 504

Me too Just recovered from emg's vertical descent, calmer but not content. Had a look at RTN again think it might be on the up. Looks as if it has bounced off the 200dma. Do you think PRX will drop again if the talks take some time?

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 17:02 - 293 of 504

PRX - don't think the shares will drop back at all ..... RNS mentioned talks with several parties, and imo it is unlikely that all will fall apart ..... but how much upside remains is impossible to judge ...... do you hold any?

this stock is very tightly held with NMS of only 500!
there is also a very strange protected sale today at about 98p of 185,000 shares ..... double checked that on LSE site

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 17:06 - 294 of 504

RTN - as you know, i am a long-standing fan of this company as well as DOM ...... though my current holdings in both are showing a loss, i am more than happy to stay with both ...... good to RTN sp poke its head above 200 dma, but there could be (quite heavy?) resistance when 25+50 dma are hit just above the current level ...... break through that, and all could be sweetness and light once more

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTN&Si

chocolat - 31 Jul 2007 17:11 - 295 of 504

Surprised at you, Cynic, for not spotting that dynamix is a gentleman - who ought to know better than rubbing old codgers up the wrong way :P

Well done on your Dow thingie :)

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 17:16 - 296 of 504

hi choccie ...... haven't had a chance to flirt with you for yonks ...... dynamix certainly ain't either a lady or a gentleman ..... (s)he behaved more like une femme d'un certain age with severe PMT and high blood alcohol!

as for Dow, that was just a little risky trade i decided upon, that i was fortunate to call right ..... though would have been righter still had i (very rashly) left it all open.

PRX is definitely my winner of the day though!

Fred1new - 31 Jul 2007 19:07 - 297 of 504

PH and others, why not leave Dyna drowned in her own vitriol.

I don't read all that is written on this thread and some bits I occasionally disagree, but that is the puzzle of TA..

But, I think the market is so volatile at the moment, that I will watch from the sidelines with 80% in cash.

You may catch a bounce of 2-5%, but guess work says there is a further retracement coming up of 5-10%.

I think this thread is interesting and the slants given enlightening. Good luck.

maddoctor - 31 Jul 2007 19:21 - 298 of 504

cynic , see where your mate was coming from re the DOW , not a risky trade at all(so long as you knew what you were doing?) - how it was derived you do not see very often but will not forget it now

ptholden - 31 Jul 2007 19:24 - 299 of 504

Dynamix, shame on you pretending to be a girl, perhaps you wish??

Joking aside, I quite welcome alternative views, sharing of ideas re trading strategies, methodology etc. Perhaps you would like to start again but in a more informative way rather than the smart arse way in which you introduced yourself. Guess I can always catch up with you on ADVFN or elsewhere :)

Maggie, pleased you got your bounce which should mitigate the damage a little, all you have to do now is decide if you take the smaller loss or hope for better. Decisions, decisions.

pth

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 19:29 - 300 of 504

i know too wher M8 got his support, but the markets are so difficult that it was brave to bet on it holding .... in fact, Dow tested through it on a couple of occasions before heading north .... today has been interesting, but far too scary for me ..... Dow has traded on a 100 point range though here is no real logic between either its top of bottom

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 19:30 - 301 of 504

Peter .... did you see e- re pro-am?

ptholden - 31 Jul 2007 19:33 - 302 of 504

Yip, Have sent you an email, more later :)

cynic - 31 Jul 2007 20:55 - 303 of 504

I very much fear that with this late sell off that the Dow support at 13255 will be broken and perhaps quite fiercely ..... very late in the day, have opened a short at 13279 and am almost sorry to say that it is now (already) quite well in the money.

at close, Dow was sitting on next hoped support at 13205 .... if that gives way, then from memory, 13200 is next stop ... feels almost traitorious, but shall leave this open o'night as it feels very much as if renewed bloodshed is on the cards .... at least this short offers mild protection against my long portfolio.

Suggest SOLA may make a good short in the morning

dynamix - 31 Jul 2007 21:15 - 304 of 504

haha it was cynic who kept suggesting I was!

looks like your dow trade was a good falling knife catch, glad you got out when you did as it looks patchy now

been long gold (spot) today was up a bit then it came back to stop me out evens. I'm also still holding livecattle long and coffee (sept) so at least that ok

uneventful day really, onwards and upwards

ptholden - 31 Jul 2007 21:31 - 305 of 504

dynamix :) = rumbled :)

Maggie, update on EMG for you:

<a href=Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Quite a change from the previous charts, I have removed the two previous 'channels', although the lower trendline (light blue) is still there, simply because having perviously provided support it may now become resistance at 575. The white dashed lines represent an attempt at determining the new trend and possible trading channel, although I will admit they are tentative at best. You will notice that the mid trendline also has the capacity to resist any upward move.

I haven't shown the whole chart from which the lower trendline originates, but it has only been tested three times, the absolute minimum for trendline support.; personally I would wish to see this line tested again and hold to give confidence to the overall trend. I drew the SP support level at 543 last night, but wasn't entirely sure it would hold, so far it has. I also drew the RSI support level last night, but that was sheer guess work and in expectation of a possible bounce.

I think if the SP can rise through the 575 level there is a strong possibility of a return to 600p, however in view of the crazy rise in the FTSE today and the DOW sell off I would think a test of the tentative 'new' trendline is likely. Keep an eye on that 543p level :(

Good luck

pth

dynamix - 31 Jul 2007 21:33 - 306 of 504

rumbled my ass .. surely it was quite plain I was a geez..

only old victor thought other wise

ptholden - 31 Jul 2007 21:37 - 307 of 504

Just as an aside, have just been flicking through a few charts, seems volumes on the ones I have been looking at are relatively light and out of proportion to their respective gains. Have already read on a few traders threads the danger of this rally been a 'dcb', with the exception of the crap I already hold (and they are long term crap anyway) I have no intention of becoming involved until things settle down.

pth
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