I am interested to hear any opinions about the proposed Royal Mail floatation. Will it remain a croc and sink or will it open at a premium and fly?

When I flagged them up this morning LOL LOL

Mr 90% has spoken!

Do we have an entry price?

Is it a spread bet(rolling or quarterly) or shares bought?

Target?

Stop Loss?

Flake!!!!!!

Carson, I cant see what you are saying as I have you filtered. No doubht as usual its directed at me.

Are you going out with the BOYS tonight?.

Who are you kidding FLAKE!

haven't been buying at all today .... confess i had expected dow to dump, but it hasn't done so

StockMarketWire.com
Royal Mail Group's H1 pretax profit plunged to £167m, from a year-ago profit of £1.58bn. Revenue was £4.5bn, broadly unchanged on the year. It proposed an interim dividend of 6.7p a share,

CEO Moya Greene was pleased with the overall performance.

"We have delivered two per cent revenue growth together with margin expansion, in line with our expectations. Our tight cost control meant that UK costs were flat on an underlying basis and we are expecting a similar performance for the full year," she said in the results statement.

"Looking further ahead, we are targeting a flat or better underlying UKPIL cost performance in 2015-16.

"The UK parcels market remains challenging. As the pre-eminent UK parcels delivery company, we are targeting a number of new, growing areas, and delivered two per cent volume growth in a competitive market.

"We had a better than expected performance in UK letters. GLS, our European parcels business, demonstrated a strong performance with better than expected volumes in domestic and export parcels.

"Our performance remains in line with our expectations for the full year. But, as always, this depends on us delivering another great Christmas, for which we are fully prepared."

Revenue and volume highlights:

· We delivered revenue growth of two per cent, in line with our expectations.

· UKPIL revenue was flat at £3,703 million. Letter revenue of £2,242 million was up one per cent, primarily due to election mailings. Addressed letter volumes decreased by three per cent3. This was better than our expected range of a 4-6 per cent decline per annum3, mainly due to the improvement in UK economic conditions.

· At £1,461 million, UKPIL parcel revenue was down one per cent. This was primarily due to the impact of a change in the mix of the parcels we carry and the highly competitive environment in the UK parcels market. We estimate Amazon's own delivery network will reduce the annual rate of growth in the UK addressable market4 to 1-2 per cent5 for approximately two years. UKPIL parcel volume grew by two per cent.

· GLS delivered a good performance, ahead of our expectations. Revenue was up seven per cent, in line with volumes.

Profits and margins highlights:

· Reported Group operating profit before transformation costs was £279 million (H1 2013-14 £353 million). This represents an increase of £13 million on an underlying basis.

· Tight cost control meant that UKPIL operating costs before transformation costs, which included the pay increase for frontline employees, were flat.

· Group operating profit margin before transformation costs increased by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.

· Group operating profit margin after transformation costs increased by 70 basis points to 5.1 per cent.

Cash flow and balance sheet highlights:

· In-year trading cash inflow was £69 million (H1 2013-14 £118 million), including the cost of the management reorganisation programme of £39 million.

· In July 2014, we issued a €500 million ten-year Eurobond with a coupon of 2.375%. £350 million of the proceeds were used to pay down short-term debt.

· Net debt increased to £570 million from £555 million at 30 March 2014.

· In October 2014, we announced that contracts have been exchanged for the sale of our former Paddington Mail Centre site for £111 million in cash.

StockMarketWire.com
Royal Mail Group said given its performance over the Christmas period it is confident that the FY outcome will be in line with the company's expectations.

It said group revenue for the nine months to Dec. 28, 2014, was up 1%, while that for UKPIL and UK Parcels was flat.

"We are continuing to bear down on costs and expect that underlying operating costs before transformation costs in UKPIL will be flat for the full year," said CEO Moya Greene in the trading statement.

"Our postmen and women delivered a great service over the busy festive period. Royal Mail delivered one of its highest ever quality of service performances for parcel delivery to our customers over the month.

"This is because we started to plan for Christmas in April, putting investment behind extra sorting capacity with 10 temporary hubs and training around 19,000 extra people. As a result, Royal Mail was able to provide customers with reliability, flexibility and high quality delivery at a competitive price.

"As the UK's biggest parcels carrier we are proud that so many people and businesses the length and breadth of the country trusted us to deliver their Christmas.

"We handled around 120m parcels in the month of December alone, 4% more than last year. Letters performed in line with our expectations, with addressed letter volumes down 3% in the first nine months. GLS, our ground-based European parcels business, continued to perform well."

RBC note today:
"Significant consensus downgrades yet to come.
Our view: We set our rating at Underperform from Sector Perform as, despite the 4.5% DPS yield, we think consensus forecasts for 2015/16 remain too high and do not see Q3 trading as enough to avoid this. Longerterm, this potentially risks the DPS. We see risk in the share price above 400p (based on a flat DPS, peer DPS yield) and see 10% downside.
Key points:
1. PT lowered 5% to 400p as now a (riskier) yield share: We make a ~5% cut in 2015/16E pre-transformation EBIT to £480m (we think consensus sees £600m-£700m). DPS yield could be a support and our 400p PT implies 5% yield - like postal peers - though RMG carries more execution risk.
2. Christmas better but we see sizable consensus downgrades germinating. Q3 Christmas trading was better for Parcel but not enough to save 2015/16E profits in our view. Parcel volumes did improve, up 4-5% YoY in October-November 2014, but slowing into Christmas (+4% YoY). RPC was still down 3%. We think some one-off volume benefits from (resolved) infrastructure problems at Hermes and Yodel helped Q3, and may not repeat in Q4. The larger revenue component of UKPIL (letters) saw revenue worsen to 2% decline in Q3. Thus, we see UKPIL revenues -0.7% YoY for 2014/15 and costs flat (before higher IAS19 charges).
3. We see EBIT pre-transformation retrenching further. Longer term we think UK letter mail prices may (have to) rise (like European peers) to help keep UKPIL margin around 6-7%. At best, this leaves a flat DPS outlook. However, excluding one-off property windfalls (uncertain in amount and timing) by 2016/17E we think equity FCF yield could be as low as 3% - falling from ~8% - under the current outlook.
4. Longer term pension risks elevated - long duration of service left is susceptible to more risks. Low bond yields see immediate risk to the IAS19 charge (non-cash) as the reference index is down by ~50bpts since H1 reporting. However, should the outlook persist into 2018, at that point (with the pension asset exhausted through the £300m pa agreed ‘underpayment’) and without changes to employee benefits, cash payments could jump back to ~£700m pa. Worse, our back-of-envelope estimates suggest present conditions might risk a jump in cash payment to £1bn pa in some bearish scenarios, a level beyond present FCF forecasts.
Downside to 400p which then implies DPS yield in line with median of income yield mail peers. Longer-term, unless profitability growth recovers, RMG can achieve modernization of parcels without a net capex step up (e.g. using property sales to support net cash flow), or avoid longer-term pension cash cost step-ups, there could be DPS downside. Triggers to a higher PT and rating include; rebased down and stabilized 2015/16E consensus; much better Parcel revenue, faster cost cuts, and reduced pension outlook risk (higher bond yields)

Royal Mail plc Full Year Results 2014-15

Group financial performance
· Revenue increased by one per cent. This was due to parcel revenue growth in UKPIL and revenue growth in GLS which was ahead of our expectations.
· In UKPIL, operating costs before transformation costs were down one per cent, better than expected. People costs increased by one per cent and non-people costs reduced by four per cent.
· Tight cost control drove operating profit margin before transformation costs improvement of 40 basis points.
· Free cash inflow increased to £453 million, benefiting from £100 million of net cash flows from the London property portfolio.
· As expected, cumulative net investment for 2013-14 and 2014-15 was £1.2 billion. Total investment increased from £617 million to £658 million.
· Net debt reduced from £555 million to £275 million, mainly due to cash flow generated, offset by dividend payments of £200 million.
· Adjusted earnings per share was 42.8 pence.
· The Board is recommending a final dividend of 14.3 pence per ordinary share. Including the interim dividend of 6.7 pence per ordinary share, this represents a total dividend of 21.0 pence per share for 2014-15, up five per cent over the notional 2013-14 full year dividend of 20.0 pence.
Operating performance
· UKPIL revenue was flat at £7,757 million. A one per cent decline in total letter revenue was offset by parcel revenue growth of one per cent, reflecting the competitive market.
· UKPIL parcel volumes increased by three per cent, with a better performance in the second half. Addressed letter volumes declined by four per cent, at the better end of our forecast range.
· GLS revenue grew to £1,653 million, up seven per cent, with revenue growth in all its markets. Volumes were up eight per cent.
· Collections, processing and delivery productivity in UKPIL improved by 2.5 per cent, within our target range of a 2-3 per cent improvement per annum.
· We have seen a net reduction in the number of employees of over 5,500 this year in UKPIL.
· The management reorganisation programme delivered cost benefits of £42 million. It is now expected to deliver cost savings of around £80 million per annum from 2015-16.
· We have introduced around 30 new projects, including new services, products and promotions to improve our customer offering.
· We exceeded our regulatory Quality of Service target for Second Class mail, with a performance of 98.9 per cent against a target of 98.5 per cent. We met our regulatory target for the delivery of First Class mail, with a performance of 93.0 per cent.
Outlook
· The parcels and letters markets in the UK remain highly competitive.
· Trading is in line with our expectations at this early stage of the financial year.
· Our performance will be weighted to the second half and will be dependent on our important Christmas period.
· We continue to target flat or better UKPIL underlying costs for 2015-16.
· The combined impact of German minimum wage legislation and the disposal of DPD SL could reduce GLS margins by around 50-100 basis points in 2015-16.
· We remain committed to growing dividends.

StockMarketWire.com
Royal Mail Group said its trading environment remains challenging and that it is stepping up the pace of change to drive efficiency, growth and innovation, while maintaining a tight focus on costs.

"In the first three months of our financial year we have seen a continuation of the overall market trends we saw last year," said CEO Moya Greene in a statement.

"We have benefitted from the parcel initiatives that took effect in the second half of last year and a good performance from GLS," Greene said.

In the three months to June 28 group revenue remained flat, while UKPIL revenue was down 2% and that for UK Parcels was up 2%. UK Letters revenue was down 4%, and GLS revenue was up 8%.

"Our outlook for letter and parcel trends and other guidance remain unchanged from that set out in our Financial Report for the full year ended 29 March 2015 issued on 21 May 2015," said Greene.

"In particular, we remain focused on costs and continue to target flat or better UKPIL underlying costs for 2015-16. As in previous years, our performance will be weighted to the second half and will be dependent on our important Christmas period."

poor rns - over priced

panMANURE g just released a 480 target - still too high imo :-))))

nice
21 Jul Davy Research N/A Underperform

Ex-divi tomorrow (7p)

Trading Update http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5197237

On watch list, dead cat bounce or whatever, possible trading opportunity support @ 420p relief rally if Indices reflect last Friday going into this week possible target for a bounce 450p.

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
11 Feb JP Morgan... 605.00 Overweight
22 Jan Beaufort... N/A Buy
22 Jan Deutsche Bank 435.00 Hold
22 Jan Barclays... 575.00 Overweight
21 Jan Cantor... 530.00 Buy
21 Jan Panmure Gordon 450.00 Hold
21 Jan Investec 580.00 Buy
21 Jan Liberum Capital 360.00 Sell
21 Jan Credit Suisse 400.00 Underperform
20 Jan Deutsche Bank 435.00 Hold
Broker Recommendations for Royal Mail

In profit but needs more volume,

Stop to 440p

Credit Suisse today upgrades its investment rating on Royal Mail Plc (LON:RMG) to neutral (from underperform) and raised its price target to 490p (from 400p)

StockMarketWire.com
Royal Mail has reported slips in both its FY revenue and pretax profit but at the same time nudged its proposed total dividend higher in what it described as a resilient performance in challenging markets.

FY revenue came in at GBP9.25bn, from GBP9.33bn. Pretax profit was GBP267m, from GBP400m, and proposed FY dividend was 22.1p, from 21p.

"We have delivered a resilient performance in challenging markets," said CEO Moya Greene.

"Group revenue was up one per cent and our strategic focus on costs resulted in a one per cent decline in our UK underlying costs. We continue to invest in our transformation and initiatives to support growth.

"Our UK parcel revenue and volumes grew by one per cent and three per cent, respectively. Our addressed letter volumes declined by three per cent; total letter revenue by two per cent.

"GLS, our European parcel business, continued to perform strongly, supporting the overall Group revenue performance.

"We are introducing new and improved products and services and responding quickly to changing customer needs. These measures, alongside our emphasis on customer focus and delivering a value for money service, have helped us to maintain our pre-eminent position in UK letters and parcels and driven growth in GLS."

OUTLOOK:
" Outlook for UK letter and parcel market trends remains unchanged.

" UKPIL cost avoidance programme on track and we expect to avoid a similar level of costs in 2016-17 as the prior year.

" We continue to seek opportunities to drive efficiency, with transformation costs currently expected to be around £160 million in 2016-17.

" Rate of revenue growth in GLS expected to slow in 2016-17.

" We expect total net investment spend to be within £550-600 million per annum in the medium-term.

" We remain focused on in-year trading cash flow, which underpins our commitment to a progressive dividend policy.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS:
" Revenue was up one per cent, with growth in GLS offsetting the decline in UKPIL revenue.

" Adjusted operating profit before transformation costs was £742 million, up five per cent.

" Adjusted operating profit margin after transformation costs declined by 10 basis points as a result of increased transformation costs due to our cost avoidance and efficiency programme.

" In-year trading cash flow of £254 million reflects increased investment in growth capital expenditure.

" Our strategic focus on costs resulted in a one per cent reduction in underlying UKPIL operating costs before transformation costs.

" Net debt reduced to £224 million due to free cash flow, offset by dividend payments.

" The Board is recommending a final dividend of 15.1 pence per ordinary share giving a total dividend of 22.1 pence per share for 2015-16, up five per cent.

" UKPIL revenue was down one per cent. A one per cent increase in parcel revenue was offset by a two per cent decline in total letter revenue.

" UKPIL parcel volumes were up three per cent, driven by continued growth in import parcels, new contract wins in account parcels and a strong performance in Parcelforce Worldwide. However, revenue reflected a weaker mix due to declines in high average unit revenue (AUR) parcels.

" Addressed letter volumes4 declined by three per cent, better than our forecast range, largely due to the return of direct delivery volumes.

" UKPIL collections, processing and delivery productivity improved by 2.4 per cent, within our target range of a 2.0-3.0 per cent improvement per annum.

" We have seen a net reduction in the number of UKPIL employees of around 3,500 this year.

" We narrowly missed the 93.0 per cent regulatory First Class mail target, with 92.5 per cent of this mail delivered the next working day. We exceeded our regulatory Quality of Service target of 98.5 per cent for Second Class mail.

" GLS continued to perform strongly. Volumes were up 10 per cent. Revenue was up nine per cent, with growth in almost all markets.