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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

overgrowth - 02 Sep 2005 11:26 - 289 of 1009

Fundy - looks like the pre-results rush has just started :-)

pachandl - 02 Sep 2005 11:38 - 290 of 1009

Keeping my fingers crossed that we can achieve 35p by results day. If not, and assuming a "carry on as normal - meeting expectations statement" with the results, we might enter into a very boring phase until December where the sp slowly moves down to about 27p ( I really hope not).

overgrowth - 02 Sep 2005 11:48 - 291 of 1009

pachandl - I think that 35p is well within reach by results.

I wonder if Clumpy will be giving an "above expectations" indication for H2 with the H1 results ?

Last year they waited until around October time before issuing the bullish trading statement.

Business is sure to be better than expected again this year as a significant proportion of the income comes from the fuel card business and that will have been booming yet again thanks to the soaring oil price throughout 2005.

pachandl - 02 Sep 2005 12:08 - 292 of 1009

I hope you are correct OG. My worry is simply twofold: (1) Clump prefers to dampen down expectations until he has the s in the bag, (2) we are still nowhere near the previous high.

Douggie - 05 Sep 2005 09:59 - 293 of 1009

?

dawsinho - 05 Sep 2005 10:33 - 294 of 1009

Morning all,

Have been watching this one for a while now. Looks like somebody is buying in big, another 1mil + buy just gone through.

Daws

paperbag - 08 Sep 2005 09:22 - 295 of 1009

Hi All

With results out tomorrow, there seems to be downward prressure on RTD with disproportionately high volume of sellers to buyers. Is this a preempt to unfavourable results tomorrow? Does anyone forsee what we can expect?

Douggie - 08 Sep 2005 09:24 - 296 of 1009

????????????????????????????????????? .

parveen1 - 08 Sep 2005 09:35 - 297 of 1009

we know the results are in line with expectations

so no problems here

just nervous ppl and the usual herd syndrome

crazy !!!!!!!!!!!!1

skyhigh - 08 Sep 2005 10:02 - 298 of 1009

Best not to expect too much !

daves dazzlers - 09 Sep 2005 08:00 - 299 of 1009

Morning all,still no position yet.

paperbag - 09 Sep 2005 08:30 - 300 of 1009

Where is the reasoning for the drop this morning, on what seems to be a good result. Or is a 17% improvement over the same period last year not viewed favourably? I am baffled by some of the surface logic, but the market is always right, so there must be something in the fundamentals. It would be great for someone who knows how to calculate these financials come up with some figures

Regards

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 08:56 - 301 of 1009

In short, growth is less than most expected and there are no new contract announcements

My initial views are really a confirmation of what i posted at last years full yr results. Despite the huge growth in number of transactions, this is not being translated into revenue and profit growth in the CNP area and hence is struggling to offset the decline in the CP business.

The fuel business continues to do well, but in very favourable conditions (exchange rate/petrol price) but looks as though it is reaching maturity.


Will post some more detail later

robstuff - 09 Sep 2005 09:28 - 302 of 1009

17% is disappointing for this kind of "growth stock" with high expectation.

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 09:41 - 303 of 1009

Turnover

Total turnover decreased by 0.7m (5%) with fuel cards increasing 0.7m (10%) and the fruad business decreasing by 1.4m (16%). The fraud side can be split into CNP increasing 0.1m (3%) and CP decreasing 1.4m (34%).

Profit

Adjusted Op profit increased 0.3m (8%) with fuel cards increasing 0.5m, fraud decreasing 0.2m and a small saving in corporate costs. At PBT level the increase was 0.5m (17%) with the improvement from Op Profit ammortisation and interest reductions.


To me, this demonstrates that the business is still fully dependent upon the fuel card business which ultimatley is delivering nearly all of the companies profits. This business has remained strong and shown a 6% increase in number of cards. That turnover has only increased 10% against a back drop of 12% higher fuel prices may even be a little lower than could have been expected. With regard to the fraud side of the business, this has actaully contracted in this set of interims with the decline in the CP business greater than the improvement in the CNP business. The decline in the CP business is going to continue into the full year and next imo so the big disappointment to me is the lack of progress made by the CNP business. Despite last years new contracts and the continually reported huge increases in transactions, revenue only increased by 3%.

The patent issue looks dead and buried to me, but is still a small shadow on the share to some investors.


All in all, a reasonable set of interims but the growth levels, especially in the CNP business are disappointing.

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 09:43 - 304 of 1009

Rob

Its even more disappointing when the increase came from the mature cash cow side of the business and the exciting growth part of the business actually contracted in total

daves dazzlers - 09 Sep 2005 09:47 - 305 of 1009

Looks like the squeeze is on the price now,still not in yet.

robstuff - 09 Sep 2005 10:01 - 306 of 1009

Last yr we all thought this co. could double profits and I was looking for a much larger increase in revenues/profits. I sold too early mths ago and have been waiting for a dip to around 24p, but will not be jumping back in now even at that level.

pachandl - 09 Sep 2005 12:17 - 307 of 1009

I have to agree with your analysis Fundy - I am still kicking myself for being carried away on a wave of euphoria when the sp hit 37p and I did not sell. I'll have a look at the full report as soon as possible - not certain what period is covered (until end of June, or July, or when?). I will also see how cnp business growth compares with Cybersource - I was convinced that we would match Cybers but, unlessmemory is playing tricks on me, this has not happened. Why?

Fundamentalist - 09 Sep 2005 12:31 - 308 of 1009

Pach

It appears that despite the new contracts RTD are not growing the traditional fixed line business (but are growing the mobile side). Your memory is not playing tricks, Cybersource are converting increased transactions into increased turnover/profit, RTD dont appear to. It is difficult to get a better handle on it without knowing exact transaction levels and also contract pricing details (what is up front payment, what is being paid per transaction etc).

report is 6 months to end of June, no comment as to July/August progress
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