> http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804020701443743R
http://www.imperialenergy.com
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200807040700042799Y




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img src="http://charts.moneyam.com/Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=IEC&Size=700&Skin=BlackBlue&Type=2&Scale=0&Span=YEAR1&MA=&EMA=&OVER=&IND=&XCycle=&XFormat=&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&SV=0">
cyril

Nice to see it up. But i would like to see larger volumes.

am i not right in thinking that if someone wants to buy/sell a large slab and it is only partially filled, then that transaction will not show up until completed?

I believe your correct and i also think it can be delayed by 1 hour.
cyril

I think Christmas as come early for us. Just to think Cynic,back when i first brought in at 10.60 you werent a fan.You must be their number supporter now LOL 8-)

at least i am not too proud to change my view and say so and why

Imperial had planned to raise 173m before Gazprom came along. The marekt cap at the time was approx 680m so there would have been a dilution of 20%.

That dilution will still happen if the Gazprom deal goes ahead as that is how they will raise the shares for them to buy. There were rumours of Gazprom only paying 9 per share, but I don't know what's happened to them. That might just have been scare mongering. Before the recent rise the shares were stuck at 11, so a 20% dilution gets you near to 9. The question is now whether 15 at current prices or 12 at diluted prices is a good price.

Most of the medium sized oil stocks have risen 50% since the beginning of the year. Imperial has risen over 100%. Now, they've had a good discovery in that time - although the estimated reserves are disputed by the Russians - which might make the rise justified - and of course, far be it for me to accuse the russians of lying and playing games. The ruskies are obviously interested in something, so I guess the reserves are potentially as large as Imperial say. (Put it this way - if they weren't, I'm sure they'll be talked up once Gazprom is involved......)

A counter bid or offer from another oil & gas company isn't going to be forthcoming given Imperials operations being in Russia and so the sp over the next few weeks will deppend very much on hhow much of a bargain Gazprom were hoping to get. If they're feeling bruised by the recent increase, I suspect Gazprom will be up to its old tricks.....

Gazprom will ask for (demand with menaces!) and get a pretty hefty discount, for they carry obvious and very significant clout .... with that in mind, any discount given may easily prove very cheap insurance into the future, and of course it will be in Gazprom's own interest to ensure that IEC succeed.

cynic - I think you're absolutely right. Gazprom will come in heavy handed and demand a big discount if Imperial want to continue operating in the former soviet states.

I'm hoping that if they do get a 20% net stake in the company at 9 a share it doesn't water down the share price too much as they clearly wouldn't want to buy their way in unless there was something of major interest there already....

I'm sitting on a 32% profit so I'm tempted to take profits at the moment with the pending dilution - but this has got to be a good play in the mid to long term....

suggest setting a trailing stop, guaranteed if pos .... that said, there is never any harm in taking partial or even total profit

mindseye
If you go back to my earlier post i have thrown some figures up
in the air with regard to the effects of Gazprom getting its slice on the cheap. At the moment however i believe the momentum is with IEC so i would expect the SP
to go higher,certainly in the short term. What happens after that will, we will have to see?
Putting a value on IEC is a bit of a lottery in so much that the tax they have to
pay is 90% above something like $27 a barrel, and i believe it could be as high as 96%. If so for every $1m they would recieve $40,000,this works out at near to $17 a barrel(at present) profit.Whereas you might expect the P2 reserves to be worth $5 a barrel, it would imo be lower, maybe $3.
At present D&G have put P2 reserves at 802mbo and will report back in spring with a lot more data, so i think we could see 1billion barrels of oil P2. With this
figure you get $3billion or something like 1.4 billion M/cap , or 20 a share for
the larger company for Oil reserves alone?
Only time will tell as to what happens once news of what Gazprom actually pays
per share.
cyril

sorry double post
cyril

have taken my own advice and top-sliced again for nothing continues up (or down) in a straight line ..... however, at 15.00, that still leaves me overweight

I,m out, IEC has been very fruitful to me. Will keep it on my watch list as i have a
lot of respect and good will towards the management and what they have achieved. I'm looking for a good entry point into EEN as they have good steady
production (Colombia)along with a sleeping giant (gigante field) and an outstanding prospect(proven) in Syria.
I'm also concerned about the Market,still feel theirs a lot of bad news which is being released slowly?
cyril

IEC returns to its usual volatile self ..... having looked at the trades, i do not see anything of any great size and overall volume was only about 708k, so in the absense of any new news (the rns was old stuff), i guess it's just profit-taking ..... so i bought back my top-slice

Yes their will always be a bit of profit taking,which in turn will cause the volatilty.
Trying to gauging a good entry point is difficult as the top size for IEC in the short term, not much more than 25%. I feel the sentiment for FSU stock might have just changed,so with that in mind i have bought into UEN. Similar problems and excellent assets, well undervalued imo, a bit of an underperformer this year but i
see that changing in the new year.So i'm hoping that rerating will come sooner rather than later, 3 times more trade today as against yesterday.
cyril

I guess I was lucky (for the moment). Having worked the figures out (I posted on iii yesterday saying I thought the sp should be 12.75) I decided to sell yesterday at 14.66p and was dismayed to watch them continue upwards to 15 plus.

But, today they've taken a knocking and are back down to 13.47p.

The 12.75 was based on a 25% share issue to Gazprombank at 9.

Once the Gazprom deal goes through (f it does) I'm back in, because I'm sure Gazprombank are onto something good and this share will fly once their a major shareholder....

niceonecyril - sorry, I didn't realise you came up with 12.50. Independently, I came up with 12.75 - so that gives me even more confidence about selling. I'll probably jump back in around 12.75 t0 13.00. My only hesitation will be if global oil prices start dropping as this will knock oil&gas shares initially on sentiment, until interims and finals are published next March.

mindseye it should be remember that the price of oil price on IEC has less effect
than one would imagine, due to the tax whereas over $27 a barrel(not sure of the exact figure) IEC pay 90% tax + other charges and its been worked out something approaching 96%.
Its why i sold up,although they make somewhere between $15 and $17 a barrel
profit. I believe it holds back the value of the reserves so holding back the M/Cap.
cyril

sp being whacked yet again today, but then so is virtually every stock .... God bless my running shorts in NRK and to a lesser extent SOLA!

sp currently nestling on 25 dma support ...... arguably a reasonable level at which to buy ..... so i bought back 1/2 my top-slice