I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

DOO - for entirely different or even wrong reasons, i also concluded that 300 would be a (very stubborn) resistance .... had not got as far as 325! ...... anyway, i think there may well be at least consolidation before that time and i was more than happy to bank my profit at 280 (110p is not to be sneezed at!) rather than try to squeeze the last drop .... have yet to work out at what level i would be tempted to buy back in ...... 230/235 for sure as that is where sp currently hits (rising) 25 dma, but maybe higher than that

"By the way," he said chortling, "that call to buy Dow this morning was good too, albeit that had I waited an hour could have cleared and extra 50 points. Still, +50 clear points on th day will do very nicely thank you and shall keep holding to 13685."

Sefton Resources

Sorry to say that the SER dawg is one of my own stocks and thought I had better try and find something positive to say.

Since the spike in September (when I should have sold, hindsight is a wonderfull thing) the stock has been in a downtrend although there were signs of life in April. However having bounced off support at around 4p on a few ocassions perhaps this downtrend is about to be broken.

Positive signs are:

MACD is slowly moving up, but yet to achieve a centreline crossover.
The first (1) RSI downtrend from Apr was broken as was a subsequent downtrend (2).
The RSI is currently in an uptrend.

Having followed SER I do know that the decline has been entirely due to a lack of progress in developing their already two producing oilfields and also lack of progress in securing a JV partner for their Coal Bed Methane (CBM) fields in Kansas. At the recent AGM (a few days ago) SER announced that finance will shortly be available to finance further drilling in their two fields, thus increasing production. Other progress was aslo announced. Based on anticipated news flow and the slightly more positive TA, I think that SER rates as a buy above 4p.

But, remember as a holder I am slightly biased so DYOR etc.

pth

SER .... so here's my basic analysis ...... chart below shows that though sp has decidedly pierced 25 dma, it has promptly fallen foul fo 200 dma, a much more potent resistance.

SER ..... as an aside, will be interesting to see whether or not sp can now pierce that 200 dma level


SCHE ..... PT - i post the chart below ...... though rsi has only (ever) fallen to 40, would you not concur that if sp rises through 50+25 dma with some impetus, which will inevitably drag up the rsi, then BUY is indicated?



red = 25dma
grenn = 50 dma

Good morning Mr Richard, will have a look at a longer term chart and post in a little while. Initial thoughts though make me think that following a substantial rise the SP may be cooling off somewhat and perhaps taking a breather?

Incidentally TAN managed to stay in its steeper channel over the last two days (just) and is now having another go at 200p.

Must say I don't like the look of this chart. I have drawn a series of trendlines to try and determine support. But as you can see the steepest was good for a while but then acted as resistance once the support failed; same can be said for the next and the third was only good for a while. If the SP does recover I would expect this third trendline to comply with theory and also act as resistance. I have also drawn a channel, from which the SP has fallen out of the bottom, the lower line of the channel may also act as resistance to any recovery. The fourth and shallower trendline is a long term, well since Dec last year and I suspect this is where the SP is heading, there just isn't anything else from a trend perspective. Having said that there is support at 520p and perhaps this may check the recent fall, but having dropped through the 50MA this will also act as resistance if it does try to make a recovery. Another aspect I don't like are the two recent bearish candles, they really are quite emphatic. You can also see that the RSI is in a downtrend and any recovery will probably be capped by that downtrend line.

There is an awful lot of resistance in this analysis so all in all I don't see any reason to buy SCHE right now from a TA perspective, actually, it might be quite a good short albeit from a slightly higher position if possible.

Sorry Richard.

pth

SCHE yesterday one of your comments was that history repeats itself ...... so if you look at the 3 year chart below you will note that sp has never stayed below 25/50 dma for more than a very short while ..... indeed, as i post this, sp has jumped back through 50 dma, but only end-day will show whether or not this has held ...... even if it does not, i reckon it would be a brave man who shorted this stock.

just for tracking purposes, 50 dma currently at 544 and 25 dma at 555, both on the rising side of neutral.

Err, that's a one year chart yer silly old sod :)

Yes, apparently history does repeat itself in the TA world, but didn't you disagree with that comment? LoL

Incidentally, I did say short from slightly higher up, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small recovery, but I think it will run into trouble when it meets those trendlines, 560p short the arse off it :)

TA success stories to date:

CSR Buy at 760p today 854p = profit of 94p / 12.4% profit
SOLA Sell at 526p today at 515p = profit of 11p / 2.1% profit

The jury is out on:

Buy SER (above 4p) at time of post 6p
Buy TAN at 180p should it ever retrace to that level
Sell SCHE from 560p

No doubt the above will come back to haunt me.

By the way, when WNG was up 7% this morning I nearly posted that the RSI had more or less confirmed a Buy signal, should have done so, shouldn't I.

pth

SCHE - 1 year and 3 years are synonymous .... lol!! ..... company only floated in 2006 or so the chart thingy seems to think

Anyway Mr Smartypants, your chance to short SCHE looks to be looming (now 550/554)..... so assuming you back with cash, where is your downside target? ...... lol!!

Cynic, SCHE floated IPO's on 07/07/06, and listed on 31/07/06.

welcome back oily one ....... good little thread this ...... susprising how often PT and myself concur having arrived from different angles ...... actually beat him to it on CSR as bought at 756 and shorted SOLA at 530; small diff of opinion on SCHE as you see though i just may be prudent and top slice with a view to buying back again if (by some fluke!) PT calls correctly

I'll forgive you the '3 year' chart then, perhaps not quite so 'silly' after all, but still comparatively 'old' !!!

am very old, but not so old as to fail to note that you have not called a shorted target on SCHE! ..... or does one take it that you are looking at about 470 being the bottom of that "blue" channel

Need to see what happens if it threatens those lines of resistance, but short from somehwere in the region of 560p with a target of 480p-500p, ie, when it says hello to the longer term trendline.

Note, this chart doesn't include today's price action.

I mentioned WNG earlier, like many others I have been keeping an eye out for the inevitable bounce. I actually drew the trendline on this chart some days ago, if you look very carefully you can just about make it out on post 4 of this thread; at the time I was talking about the dangers of RSI so did not draw attnetion to it. Anyway, that was a tentative line and it has bounced exactly off there today. Personally I wouldn't go rushing in quite yet, I would much prefer to see the resistance line on the RSI broken which if it happens will post a confirmed BUY signal. My fear is that following today's rise based on the Shares Mag comments, a retracement will follow, before the recovery is actually confirmed.

WNG - why did sp plummet in the first place?