ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

SEADOG, Snip, JohngTudor
Reckon this has been a very helpful dilogue. Three points.
1. From my previous note it is clear that I see ASOS as a buy with potential for a 1 price in the Autumn. I have got to know the share very well: the sales, cash flow and profits trend lines are turning further up - you could describe it as an exponential period of growth. At present they do not have physical limitations to volume (new warehouse advanced to next year because of accelrated growth). I have switched from the dogs in my portfolio to buid up the ASC investment. That is my recommendation, sell the dogs NOW and switch into ASC. Strong likelihood of buying ahead of AGM in September.
2. The comparisons with the Moving Average trendlines are very interesting. Ten and 20 days are really too short; 39 or 50 days give a much better reading.
3. I discovered myself tending to buy on the newsflow - that means that you probably buy at the top. The price then comes back as profit takers come in. I suggest that is where we are at the moment with ASOS. Fresh buying in the last week or so. Probably a good time to buy. Note that the price is quite volatile and can vay quite a bit during the day. Recently, price has been quite ggod around 8.30, particularly if marked down overnight. Then comes a rise as buying builds up from 9a.m. starters before reacting later in the day, perhaps wioth profit taking by day traders. Suggest watching the price stream on MoneyAM plus graph over a few days. Do others agree?

ew agree with you if this stock is not a pound by xmas something has gone wrong that is why i topped up a few weeks ago.

Hi EWRobson
I do agree with your analysis, both today and your earlier msg re Market Capitalisation figures. A 1 target in the autumn though looks a little ambitious, but that is not to say it won't get there between now and Xmas.... well like you I hope so! As I have said before you do have to undertake your own research, and I have found the company's advisors to be helpful on that front. Ultimately you have to back your own judgement and then carefully monitor the stock. Easier to do when you are only following a few stocks.

Down another 10% today. Isuspect MM shorting still??

freefall, novelty over??? hope not, this share thing is so frustrating, rich one minute, skint the next.

kivver, your lucky to be rich for one minute with this one !!

last time to buy , shorters out the way , agm soon, also a 3%big buy, but you dont spend that sort of money without doing your homework.

Mail

M&C SAATCHI (overweight - Lehman) - ASOS (what does mystery investor David Harold have on AIM tiddler ASOS)


Does anyone know anything about this comment in the mail?

yesterdays buying also mentioned in the times today

Patsym
See R.N.S. 19/8/04 1101am under ASC for confirmation

BOUGHT INTO ASOS AT 60.5P, SO AM WONDERING WITH LAST NIGHTS GIG BUY AND DIRECTOR BUYING IF THERE MIGHT BE SOMETHING IN THE PIPELINE TO COME? ANYONE GOT ANY VIEWS!!!!!!!!

i thought they were due to give a trading update in Sept + i believe they also have there AGM. Other than that, the fact that their sales are growing like crazy and they are being forecast for a 1.00 share price inside next few months. Not much else going on!!!

When the Finance Director resigns the standard rule for the investor is to look out for trouble! However in this case it looks to be a smooth changeover, with a 2 month handover. The RNS message goes onto suggest the FD has resigned to spend more time with his family. If he lives in Wiltshire and travels into London every day, and has to put in the hours expected by the beancounters in a thriving company, I suspect the journey times at the end of a long day are a real problem. So this changeover does not look a worry, and the Market Makers/Companies Broker seems happy as well. The new FD is reported to have good retailing expertise so all should be fine as ASOS go from strength to strength. We will have to see what the subsequent press comments are though to be sure. Presumably the upcoming AGM will be the time and place to make the new introductions and to dispel any uncertainities.

Does anyone have any other views on this, and is the exercise of the Option likely to be a problem?

johngtudor

Discussion with a broker today who suggested that the slight easing of the price was due to the dilution caused by the granting of options.

Its pretty clear why the FD, John Morgan, has resigned. He has options for 600K shares at 3.5p, 250K at 4.5p and 133K at 10.25p. In other words, he has made his fortune, so why should he travel or even work? Morgan must have played a very significant role in the success of ASOS so he deserves a slap on the back. The transfer of responsibilites is clearly being well handled. I can't see any cloud on the horizon. The earlier concern that they might not withstand competition from the high street retailers, switching to the internet, seems of little concern given that they clearly have captured a key section of the market. Buy now or regret it as there is likely to be positve newsflow during September.

Eric

eric well said,not only sept for positive newsflow,the rest of the year should be there best ever in the run up to xmas.cheers woodie

EWRobson

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated. I too think September will be a good month for ASOS.

Good morning all. I am a lot happier now , the new FD does seem to be switched on as regards his retail experience lets hope he does as good a job as the outgoing man. Looking forward to the AGM. I think the key is the dates on which the options can be exercised???

SEADOG
The application for listing for 607,914 clearly refers to John Morgan's first tranche of options which is listed in the Annual Report (impressive document - I liked the birds!). Its not a big deal, except for him, as the volume is pretty typical of a day's trading (several times higher in July and I suspect later this month). His other options (the lesser amounts) can be exercised from 1/05 and 2/06. Lord Ali's options are for nearly 1.6m shares at 12.66p, exercisable at any time. Still not particularly significant. ASC's cash generation is so significant with a cash balance at the year end of 1M+ it seems unlikely that they will need to raise any more capital. It would be hardly worth it for the new warehouse project, given that the directors won't want their holdings diluted either. Morgan's comment is "..we are confident that we will continue to generate cash from operating activities due to increasing profitability and the increased strength of our balance sheet leading to improved credit terms from our suppliers." (music to the ears!). I can't see them wanting any diversification, except for addition of product lines. Its hard to imagine a more positive scenario.
Eric

You paint a very optomistic and positive scenario indeed. Then why have there been so many sellers around in the last few days. Are there any whispers about the last few months trading ?

Rake
It will be interesting if your questions flush out anything adverse because I haven't seen it. All the pointers seem to be going the other way. In fact, the price has been fairly steady this last week with a reasonable match between buyers and sellers (remember a lot of poeple are sitting on substantial profits).

Earlier this year they were happy to claim 5th place in the Hitwise top 10 fashion internet retailers; in June (Annual Report) they were second:
Next 8.17%
ASOS 3.66%
Additions Direct 3.08%
La Redoute 2.81%
then come Boden, Topshop, Figleaves, M and M Sports, Mothercare and River Island. ASOS are increasing market share in a market growing at a predicted 54% (on line shopping overall) this year.
I have just received an analysis from Hoodless Brennan & partners who have been contacting ASOS shareholders, proud of the fact that they recommended ASOS at 4p. It strikes me as a balanced analysis. Amongst bull points they include "strong marketing and unique range of celebrity inspired clothing; recruitment of experienced buyers/introduction of new prodict lines; improving inventory and stock control". Bear points are "highly competetive market with low barriers to entry; threat of more aggressive e-initiatives from the high street majors; demanding forward PE of 40x; valuation assumes continued high growth for several years; susceptible to downturn in consumer confidence". They note that ASOS now stands (at 60.25p) at a premium to the market with a price to sales ratio of 5.3x compared to 1.6x at Next and 3.6x at Amazon (though bearing in mind that Next is much more mature and does not ahve the growth potential of ASOS), "There is considerable interest & momentum in the stock, but the firm must prove that it can continue to deliver sales and profit growth into the long term, whilst keeping operating costs/stock levels in check". They refer to the house broker's (Seymour Pearce) forecast for the current year to march 2005 is 1.3m. "This looks achievable on current progress but places them on a fwd PE of 40x. To justify the current valuation there can be no slip up in the 47% EPS growth forecast from 05 to 06 which could be impeded by competitive pressure or an economic downturn." They conclude with a HOLD recommendation; the fact that they are writing to clients who will have bought earlier may be the reason for not recommending a BUY. However, the whole note says HOLD.

It might help to give my personal attitude to the share which I believe is realistic. I boght at prices from 23p to 32p and took a profit on quarter of the holding at around 45p after the results. I then watched the price rise again in Lat July to around 70p in response to their trading statement (I think also investment briefings) before receding back to around 40p where I switched back in on the view that the profit taking was overdone and the larger investors were on holiday. My main point is that the cap. is still opnly 40M which means many larger investors do not yet have a stake. Couple this with the broker forecast of 1 and the highly likely positive news flow starting this month and probably going through to Xmas and you have a strong reason for buying (I have a gut feel the sales projections are under-stated). I would buy more if I had the money. Having said that, it is not a share to lock away; you need to keep a look-out for any negative symptoms/ adverse comment. I will sell progressively as the price rises but, as I did last month, prepared to switch back to buying if I have under-estimated the performance. I would rate the downside risk as 'quite low'.
Hope this helps (do challenge me on anything)and good luck, Eric