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Couple of posts from Paul who took part in the placing.



ghhghh - 27 Nov'09 - 08:44 - 9390 of 9500

I tried to get 11m in the Placing but scaled back 25% since oversubscribed.

AST were trying to raise 6m to 10m so imo a good sign that they only raised the minimum at 5p. If they thought A-2 a crock or risk that 104AA won't flow as hoped they would have filled their boots.

AST will get flak for the 5p price but small cap markets have turned last few weeks and investors pitched their bids at different prices ie I said I'd take only 6m if 6p and I wanted a min of 5m raised so that if A-2 a duster (as balance of probability it will be) then AST well capitalised for first time in its existence.

I just bought another 1m in market at 5.3p - wondering who could be selling down here. Ascent has always been cash poor but asset rich. I sold down a few months ago because I had too much exposure to a risky (ie no cash with PEN 104 about to run dry) company. But since then AST has made good discoveries with PAN and esp PEN 105 and 104AA which should deliver strong cash flow next year. And now 6m cash.

Also market overlooking:

With this in mind, a key focus will be the Petişovci oilfield in Slovenia where preliminary results from the 3-D seismic are above our expectations; new prospects are available for drilling and there is near term potential for production in 2010.


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ghhghh - 27 Nov'09 - 11:30 - 9486 of 9495

AST tried to get the best price possible but were screwed by unfavourable markets.

They started several weeks ago looking for 7p plus and even just a few days ago 6p looked unlikely as too low.

But this week has obviously been a nightmare for Ascent as they tried to balance price versus amount raised.

Several large investors, myself included, screwed them further by saying we would only invest if at least 5m raised. I expect A-2 to be a duster and therefore only wanted to invest if AST financially secure and therefore no funding problems whatsoever re Slovenia and getting PEN/PAN into production. Especially since markets looking dodgy and Dubai could be tip of iceberg.

I suspect they could have got circa 2m to 3m at 6p and AST had to make the difficult decision whether better to get 6m and suffer the extra dilution. In the big picture, this is not that bad re dilution and flip side is they now have the all important cash for PAN and Slovenia.

IMO they thought what if A-2 a duster? Odds are it will be. Shares will drop sub 6p. A large placing at 5p would, with hindsight, have looked like a smart deal.

Also they are very bullish on Slovenia. Two edged. Now they have the cash to pursue this without needing to farm out or can now farm out on better terms.


And re a right issue - by the time this was sorted A-2 would have announced. If duster what sort of take up? And who would have underwritten and at what cost?

I understand how galling it is to have been out of the loop re getting in to Placing but AST kept this very tight in order to protect the share price. I only got in because have taken part in a few Astaires Placings before and therefore had track record of keeping my mouth shut.

A number of high profile long term investors were only asked last minute, presumably when they had the 6m secure and could therefore scale back to make room for them.

So imo Ascent did everything they could reasonably do to be fair and get best price but in the end took the view that they needed the 6m.

That they didn't take more is encouraging.

It's easy to knock them but what could they have done differently?

Either say 3m at 6p or 6m at 5p. With the latter you now sleep at nights and if A-2 a duster, then a smart move.

This "Placing News" has dropped the sp 17% ((Currently 5-6p-)) + the spread, that is really nasty.
+My reading of several RNS since Oct.09, is that P C will have to make an official Ann. re his % holding - Lucky/no wonder he sold at recent highs, as/if the Co is happy to sell at just 5p.
- but we retail-shareholders are not so lucky - this Placing is a dilution of 1/3, so whatever you paid (prior to late Nov09) is raised 33% - e.g. If you paid 9.0p (that wouldn't be difficut, with broker fees, spread etc.), your real investmernt was 12p - Ouch!
DYOR.

Whetheer this placing was really necessary at this time of "difficult" cash I cannot say, but AST should have done it when the relationship of News/Reward is somewhat more positive than now - although "maybe" the Placing-investors are aware of better news that we . . . . . this is often the case, IMHO....I believe it, and that's all that I care about.

Let's not forget this Stock was talked-up 2--7 (mostly by the Co Press releases) to 30p but NOTE that this (Nov09) dilution detracts from Highs - so 30p (then) would equate now to 20p...DYOR

What planet are you on ??????????????? If you paid 9p you paid 9p, thats it.

The company now is fully funded for the whole of the 2010 campaign, which could see them ending the year with over 20M a year in annualised revenues from Hungary and Slovenia.

The very simple fact they are fully funded with cash in the bank now makes them a very low risk play, and therefore attractive to many other people.

They will do very simple things now, drill holes, put them on test, then on to production and then drill another, and again and again.

500K cost, 10M payback.

Riddling Hungary and Slovenia with that money to make money.

Only a blind man cannot see the potential here now, fully cashed up.

And thats forgetting Fontana-1 totally.



hangon - 29 Nov 2009 15:15 - 294 of 294

........ If you paid 9.0p (that wouldn't be difficut, with broker fees, spread etc.), your real investmernt was 12p - Ouch!
DYOR.

The Dualex release of Friday. PEN-104AA testing starts this week maybe :

http://www.dualexen.com/documents/Financials/2009/DXE-2009-Q3.pdf

Hungary

In August 2009, the Company participated as to its 12.5% working interest in the Gorbehaza #1 (“GH-1”) well in the Panhandle region of the Corporation’s Nyirseg North permit. GH-1 was drilled to a depth of 1,300 metres and was successfully completed and tested. GH-1 encountered two Pannonian gas-bearing sandstone reservoirs totaling 5.75 metres and the stratigraphically lower zone of the two has been completed. The shallower sand will be completed and put on production once the lower zone has been depleted. GH-1 is planned to be tied-in to the third-party-owned Hajdunanas Gas Production Facility 2.5 kilometres to the north in the first quarter 2010.

In September 2009 the Company concluded the drilling and initial completion operations on the PEN-105 well in the Peneszlek area of northeast Hungary. The well was drilled to a depth of 1,487 metres to test a structure which tested gas from the base of the Miocene volcaniclastics in a well drilled in 1982. Nine metres of reservoir were perforated over three intervals in the target formation at PEN-105 and all three zones flowed gas, two with condensate. Permitting of the pipeline that will be used to bring the gas to market is underway and construction is planned so that gas sales from this well can commence early in 2010.

In October 2009, the Company completed the deepening of the PEN-104A sidetracked gas well (“PEN 104AA”). Based on good mudlog formation gas shows and open-hole well log evaluation, PEN-104AA was completed with a slotted liner and external casing packers, and will be tested once equipment becomes available and, pending favorable results, it is anticipated production in Hungary should resume in December.

A very good post, and very true. The window of opportunity was now, and AST took it. Wait until next year and see what happens to any small AIM oily in need of cash, they will likely be struggling extremely to get any cash and will be diluted massively or simply go bust.

This makes AST more attractive now as they are cashed up, and have the cash to get "cash revenues" coming in from many producing wells so they can be self reliant on generating their own cash for exploration by late 2010.


edjodav - 30 Nov'09 - 21:21 - 10126 of 10155

i have spoken to ast today and have been informed that ast didnt go down the gem route due to the fact of the formula used when drawing down as they would have only been able to draw down a certain amount at a time and it would have taken to long. they would have only been able to draw down about 400k to 500k from now until january 2010.they didnt do a rights issue as this would have cost somewhere in the region of 400k to 450k to organise.
ast also stated that the money raised is to fast track slovenia and hungary.
they also said that they needed to get institutions on board earlier rather than later due to the fact that next year the money would not be available as bigger oil companies look to go to the market for funding.
pen 104a and 105 flow rate news will be released within the next week or so and these wells will confirm that they are commercial wells.we will have five producing wells over the next six months.it also looks like the remaining gem facility will not be used. i feel a lot better today. just one other thing i got the impression that fontana is not a duster

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/ascent-to-raise-6-million-as-it-chases-production-growth-in-2010/771.html

December 01, 2009

Ascent To Raise 6 Million As It Chases Production Growth in 2010

Allaying investor concerns that the company was too cash-strapped to develop its portfolio of 20 properties that span five countries across Europe, Ascent Resources has conditionally raised 6 million through a placing with new and existing shareholders. The placing was handled by its new broker and Nomad, Astaire Securities plc, and involves 120,000,000 new ordinary shares priced at 5 pence each, a slight discount on the current share price of 5.5 pence each.
The placing will be in two tranches: the first raising gross proceeds of 1.79 million and the second, subject to shareholder approval at an EGM on December 14, will raise 4.2 million. The placing shares will represent about 24 per cent of the enlarged share capital.

The AIM-quoted company plans to use the funds to develop those projects capable of delivering near-term cash flows: rank exploration has dropped off the agenda for next year. This means the 2010 development plan will focus on proving up reserves and increasing production from its properties in Hungary and Slovenia, said CEO Jeremy Eng.

This involves building production from the Penčszlčk area of eastern Hungary, where it plans to have five wells in production by mid-2010. The company recently completed the PEN-104 sidetracked gas well, the second sidetracked well on the field which appears to have found a substantial gas reservoir in the Miocene. It will be tested shortly. Ascent has a 45.23 per cent in the .........

frontera resources/FRR

FRR no thanks.

AST now has cash, lots of it and enough to do their whole 2010 development plan.

That makes AST much less risky, and more of an investment now.....not a gamble.

Post from elsewhere :


Clive205 - 2 Dec'09 - 20:25 - 10331 of 10332

In the FD note from Nov, 6th it published a table of licences showing AST holding 45% of Dolina and 15% of Globoki.

It also published the estimated pps value to AST as follows:

Field Risked PPS Unrisked PPS
Dolina 3.7 14.7
Globoki 3.5 7

These figures represent AST's respective percentage holding.

However it also says that AST's wholly owned subsidiary NSC currently owns 75% because joint venture partners have declined to participate in the work, but that FD has chosen to ignore this for now and assumed an interest of only 15%.

So if this situation remains the same and AST actually retain 75% I make the figures as follows;


Field Risked PPS Unrisked PPS
Dolina 5.8 24.5
Globoki 17.5 35

I've not taken into account dilution as a result of the recent fundraising, but do these figures look right?

If so then we could be in for an exciting ride H1 of 2010.



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Pro_S2009 - 3 Dec'09 - 00:22 - 10332 of 10332

A good post Clive.

It would appear that the 6M raised will complete the PEN wells planned and complete the Panhandle wells planned and that is the end of the Hungary work once at least 5 are on line by mid 2010 (PEN-104AA, PEN-105, GH-1, GH-2, PEN-101, PEN-106 or another).

The main use of the money is to drill Slovenia and prove that up and get it into production. It is well known that production facilities and infrastructure is in place (which means less Capex and less delays in brining discoveries to production). Production licenses are already in place, again no delay, and it appears the Slovenia government want to get income and so are fully supportive.

Its going to be very interesting what comes out of Slovenia in the first 6 months of the year, if they start to prove up that oil is commerical and start producing it things change dramatically (especially with talked about figures of 50MM to 80MM barrels) and thats ignoring the gas in the deeps.

From Clive's post above it can be seen that the risked figures have significant potential impact on the SP of AST, the unrisked figures of course are far higher, however that risked basis was done without the latest 3D sesimic results and so could be very much different now.

I think FD will keep a 20p target price, but lift up all the Slovenian figures based on the new seismic in their new note.

An exciting period ahead, buy your tickets and off we go on another 7 month AST journey to mid 2010 and see what brings.

*** and yes, I totally ignore Fontana-1 as IMO its best to regard this as nothing, only upside if anything good happens.

Nice post from elsewhere. There is "rumour" that the 3D seismic has shown up 50m to 70m barrels of potential, however, for now with that no in the open, working with the 24m figure does give some food for thought.



"bobobob5 - 3 Dec'09 - 00:58 - 1063 of 1069

The Dolina is very interesting. There isn't much historic public domain stuff about it which is easy to find (or which even exists!) but what there is sounds good. It produced for the Germans from 1942, but most of the original oil-in-place is still there. This is very easy to establish by studying the produced oil, the residual Proved and Probable volume (not currently booked to reserves because the field isn't on proper production), and the recovery level.

There are various ways to get at the OIIP figure, prior to the revised 3D assessment which is unpublished; e.g. (a) by working backwards from the above data, (b) by comparison with the over-the-border volumes for the other 2/3 of the structure (AST have given those numbers), and (c) by asking the company (which I did at Proactive Investors in 2007, and I got a figure for it).

As Smarty emphasises, we now know that the 3D derived volumetric estimate (albeit unpublished) is ABOVE COMPANY EXPECTATIONS. What that means is anyone's guess...but based on the work i did 2 yrears ago after Proactive, I would plump for 100 million barrels original oil in place. And whyever not? This whole industry is based on a broad church of science, guesswork and speculation, whatever anyone might like to claim to the contrary.

If that figure were correct, and we were to assume that with modern methods 30% of it could be recovered over time, the original recoverable volume would be 30 million barrels. Deduct the 5.6 million barrels prodiuced since 1942, and we get a remaining 24.4 million barrels. This is about double the 10.7 million barrels 2P stated by Ascent in 2007, but Ascent now say that their new figure is ABOVE EXPECTATIONS. So I will assume 24.4 million barrels, and why not.

I am disinclined, without any evidence, to assume more than the current 45% AST stake; the deeper gas percentage may well rise above the 15.75% however.

So on my basis: 24.4m x 0.45 = 10.98m so call it 11 million barrels.

Now if we monetise that using Ascent's own 2007 Reserve Value Approximations table, on Full cycle development 10% NPV, interpreting their 15-20 euros per onshore barrel fiogure as currently being about 15, the value (using Ascent's own methodology) is:

11m barrels x 15 a barrel = 165m

Now as oil in ground, the sp would not reflect that much; possibly, I would guesstimate 40% of it, which would be 66m (this being 6 a barrel, which doesn't seem at all daft to me)

On this line of valuation, depending on how one views the # of shares vis a vis the Placing, and one uses for sake of argument 440m shares as being a relevant number, this (hypothetical) Dolina oil might represent something like 15p per share. though of course AS PRODUCTION it would be worth a lot more, because there isn't then the time-related reduction of the NPV methodology, and the 60% reduction is gone.

If we consider that the current market capitalisation is, broadly, underpinned by the PEN wells, then the above (speculative) 15p represents an upside. And a not inconsiderable one, though not exactly in the multibagger class (imo one needs to look at the Globoki gas for that, etc)

It's very clear from the Placing RNS that the 6m is intended to help make the Slovenian shallow oil potential *real*. Jeremy Eng said so, it's clear and it's unequivocal.

In terms of bopd in 2010, well how on earth can one possibly guess as to what that might be? Well it's se;lf evident that one well is the minimum # of weels to achieve production! So the only issue then becomes: what would a reasonable expectation be for a modern production well, targeted into NEW PROSPECTS (see RNS) in an area that the Nazis produced using crude, by modern-day standards, technology? I don't know...500 bopd maybe?

If that were so, it would be (say) 160,000 barrels per annum allowing for maintenance down-time etc. So take the 45% and it's 72,000 barrels to AST. At say 20 a barrel initially (otherwise Ascent's NPV multiplier doesn't work) we would have 1.44m per annum from the first well. Add another...and it's close to 3m per annum. Which is not a fortune, but it would form a third income stream, to supplement the anticipated PEN and GH gas from Hungary.

btw I bought a piece of art from the delightful Gaye Advert this evening. And Ascent Resources are not One Chord Wonders!

but imho DYOR etc as always"

pp keep pumping!

I am well in profit from 3.5p levels recently purchased......and next year more bagging to come :)

Making money is what its about, buy low, sell high.

pp fill your boots, but hopefully not with water!

OJ thinks next week for PEN-104AA and PEN-105.



http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12050&mn=5895&pt=msg&mid=8243992


104AA and 105 flow rates to be released next week according to a "continental" friend.

If he is right 104AA is testing now and it will be great to finally see the flow rates on the two wells.

Use of flush as you may.

OJ

Worth a read for views :

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11767739&sort=whole


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Interesting that the lastest Otto presentation just out on page 5 has 4 prospects/leads in the Po Valley license area they share 50/50 with Ascent.

One might be Rubiera, it may not. However even if it is there remains 3 others. The Po Valley is very prospective and those who have written off the AST held area simply after 1 P&A are misplaced and misguided. It certainly will not be part of the 2010 work plan, but Otto and AST may well revisit there in 2011.


http://www.ottoenergy.com/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1417&EID=74632515



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RNS AST parts company with San Severina, what a waste of time.

Its been a dead deal for months now, ever since the JR deal fell through. AST must be getting rid of all their skeletons out of the cupboard and start the new year with a clean sheet.

Fontana-1 if bad should be out between 22nd Dec and 31st Dec.......any later than that and it might be good news and not bad.

20p target price from Hoodless.

http://www.hoodlessbrennan.com/EasysiteWeb/getresource.axd?AssetID=21276&type=Full&servicetype=Attachment


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