Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

arguably some support about 1005 ..... below that, could not spot anything significant until perhaps 900

Crockham

have held these since approx 200p until quite recently and yes still follow very closely. Long term still like the proposition but im not a fan of catching falling knifes. Personally can see these reaching 900p if we receive no news in the interim (whether that be company specific or a rising oil price) though any turn in the chart and i will be looking to accumulate. Would like to hear a company trading statement rather than Merrill Lynchs view based on chats with management (i hate this information flow route)

From a chart perspective support appears at 900p and this is also the downside target for the current point and figure chart

You have to bear in mind that Dana havent been overly forthcoming with news flow and recent drilling campaigns have been disappointing so an SP fall shouldnt be a huge shock

Announcing Long term incentive plan shares for directors after the market close on a friday doesnt endear the mgmt to the shareholders too much

Dana Petroleum PLC
02 February 2007


For Immediate Release 2 February 2007


Dana Petroleum plc (the 'Company') Grant of Awards under the New LTIP

Dana Petroleum plc reports that on 1 February 2007 it granted the following
conditional nil cost share awards to the Executive Directors under the Dana
Petroleum plc 2006 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the 'LTIP') which was approved by
shareholders at the Company's EGM on 26 September 2006.

In accordance with the rules of the LTIP, these conditional awards were granted
on 1 February 2007 at a price of 10.20 per ordinary share (the official
mid-market closing share price on the London Stock Exchange on the preceding
dealing day) as follows:

Executive Director Number of Ordinary Number of Ordinary Executive
Shares subject to the Shares subject to Shares
Level 1 LTIP Award Level 2 LTIP Award

T P Cross 106,575 106,575 31,439

D A MacFarlane 27,798 27,798 8,200

S M Paton 20,686 20,686 6,103

The shares subject to Level 1 and Level 2 LTIP awards (the 'LTIP awards') will
only be released to the Executive Directors in three years time subject to their
continued employment and the satisfaction of the following conditions:-
- Level 1 LTIP awards will be proportionately forfeited if some or all
of the Executive Shares are not retained for the three year period.
- None of the LTIP awards will be released unless the Company's average
annual ROCE over the period is at or above 10% (the 'Threshold Condition').
- Once the Threshold Condition has been satisfied. 30% of the shares subject
to LTIP awards will be released for median comparative total shareholder
return performance, 65% for upper quartile performance with full release at
upper decile comparative performance.

Executive Shares are ordinary shares in the Company purchased or committed to be
purchased by the relevant Executive Director in order to be eligible to be
granted a Level 1 LTIP award.

Too much to ask for them to update on the latest licensing awards
Venture Production awarded 2 blocks in UK's 24th licensing round
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Venture Production PLC said it has been awarded two blocks in the UK's 24th licensing round.

The Aberdeen-headquartered company has been awarded Block 49/10c in the Southern North Sea and part of Block 21/17, within the Greater Kittiwake Area, owned 50 pct by Venture and 50 pct by Dana Petroleum PLC.

It added that Block 49/10c is a candidate for near-term development, with a part of the block expected to be developed in late 2007 or 2008, while Dana will be operator of Block 21/17 during the exploration phase.

appears to have bounced off support at 1030 with help from recent oil price increases

Fund
You back in yet it's getting a bit lonely in here.

no, should have bought in this morning but was still in bed :-(

have updated the chart for you (post 291).
imo, not too much margin between today's sp and potential resistance on 25 dma

Fundy,

Hope you are well, not having met since your move to more temperate climes.

I am close to opening a new long position here and think your 900p support, whilst valid may be unduly pessimistic. I am not a student of P&F - think you must have picked up that nasty habit in the land where it always rains - so can't comment specifically on that but I do see conventional TA support just above 10 quid.

I am not a knife-catcher either, so will wait for the trend break. However I do think the price is way under fair value and the correction should be an enjoyable ride.

Hope you cleaned up on the Australian cricket.

Edward

Edward

long time no speak indeed

wouldnt disagree re the support above 10 though have to admit to being a touch concerned that the SP has struggled to follow the Oil Price up the last few weeks

yes the 900p may be pessimistic and like you waiting for a turn in the chart before buying back in

as for being in the land where it always rains - was long FCD from 230ish with a P&F target of 306. Didnt close when that was broken last week and woke up to find it in the 260s this am :-(

as for the cricket, yes its been very profitable of late even if i have had to sacrifice my body clock, bring on the world cup - i cant wait :-)

Sorry you got caught by FCD. Don't much like the markets generally at the moment. Sports much more tradable :-)

DNX giving 10 a hard testing atm. Your P&F target of 9 looking more credible now.

FCD my own fault for getting greedy :-(

Like you, finding the markets very very difficult of late, yep the sports are far more tradeable :-) Like many i guess at the moment my gut feel is to be bearish the general market yet the charts clearly show were still in a strong uptrend

DNX seems to be finding it easier to follow the oil price down than it is to follow it up at the moment, really would be nice to hear an operational update from the company

Well Dana finally gave us an operational update but no real surprises or any new info.

2006 production at 22300 boepd slightly lower than would have been hoped for earlier in the year but year end production of 30,000 boepd encouraging. 2007 expected to be between 31,000 and 34,000 boepd and still on track to achieve 40,000 boepd by end of 2007

cash flow still positive with cash in hand of 110M and still completely unhedged to the oil price


Possibly of more interest currently is that Schroeders appear to be stake building, having taken there stake above 15% now

Merrill Lynch reiterated its buy stance and target price of 1550p earlier and the Chronic Investor reckons the current price is too high (no change there then!!!)

SP very strong and out of line with the other mid cap E&P cos today, currently up 5% on decent volume

Todays RNS appears to be a good peice of business for DNX . What with the fields yield in excess of 11,000 bbpdoe it wont take very long for the considerstion DNX paid to be returned manyfold . l suspect will fly today as this news is the very thing the market likes in an oil junior -increased reserves !!! Must put s/p up by at least 5-7% depending how much is already factored into current s/p which appears upon scrutiny of recent trading to have been already half done. @+ J

A new low whats happened to DANA.

Driver, The company says the fundamentals have not changed. The Norwegian deal is on track and so is the drilling of the Grouse field (Venture is the Operator) I hold with the expectation of a positive news flow over the next few months. At the AGM on 25th July it was pointed out that the recent deals in Norway and Egypt are a step change for the company about which they are excited. The company does not court the City or analysts as some other oil explorers do. Merrill Lynch has a "Buy" rating and 16.00 price objective in a note dated 13th June.

I see this breaking higher finally. It's been a lacklustre couple of years but now I think that will change and we're due a period of catch up.

I am guessing 1800p Greyhound.

Not beyond the realms of possibility of a takeover target too.