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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

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http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
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http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

The sp could become erratic......is it by the 19th a bid should be declared...does that mean 0hours or 24 hours later : midnight on the day ?.....

Posted that before seeing above......so several bidders are interested....thought that was why the sp is surging....

Canaccord note:
"SEPLAT PETROLEUM (NR): Seplat completes debt refinancing - potential Afren (HOLD, TP 25p) implications. Seplat announced yesterday afternoon it had successfully refinanced its existing debt facilities with a new US$700m 7-yr secured facility and a US$300m 3-yr secured revolving credit facility. The 7-yr facility also includes an option for the facility to be upsized by an addition US$700m for qualifying acquisition opportunities. The announcement substantially reflects prior press reports of a successful refinancing. Seplat previously made a highly preliminary approach to Afren for which the put-up-or-shut-up date expires at 17.00 on Monday 19th Jan - we understand this deadline could be extended at Afren's request and with Panel approval. Afren's shares rose 32% yesterday, albeit from a low level, reflecting strength in the E&P sector and potential for a takeover offer to be made. On our new oil price (futures strip & US$80/bbl long-term from 2018) our risked NAV at a 10% discount rate for Afren stands at 25p/sh, down from 57p/sh at our prior oil price assumption of US$88/b from 2016 (Afren has a large debt position). Clearly the equity value is extremely sensitive to valuation assumptions. We set our target at our risked NAV using a 10% discount rate not because Afren is well financed, but because it is a potential takeout candidate."

The sp is also following the curb of WTI....to an extent..

If there is a bid...it could go like this : 80p......then declined.....100p declined by another...done deal at 125p.....

Just a reminder from 13th Jan from StockMarketWire.com

Credit Suisse has downgraded its recommendation on independent oil and gas exploration and production company Afren (LON:AFR) to neutral" from outperform" following yesterdays big reserves downgrade.

Resource uncertainty now joins a list of concerns including the upcoming Nigerian elections, a relatively stretched balance sheet and a falling oil price, analyst Robert Mundy said.

The broker cut its target to 54 pence a share from 92 pence.

Separately, Canaccord Genuity downgraded its recommendation to hold" from speculative buy" in a note to investors, on Monday.

The broker said: This is very disappointing and a significant negative for our view on Afren.

Canaccord also slashed its target price to 27 pence a share from 65 pence.

We have chosen to eliminate all value for Kurdistan, mainly Barda Rash and a modest contribution from the Ain Sifni block, from our NAV, the broker added.

How much Afr is worth to a bidder/s is the big question

sharp pullback....that's what I mean by erratic

aldwickk, a lot less since the downgrade.
2517

If it comes ...80p....

RF

What price did you buy at ?

Am thinking of buying at around 28p

around 22.5.....a tad more...

you can buy now aldo!
hindsight reveals that i shouldn't have closed that short so quickly

It's a gamble....even if a bid does not materialise this coming week....I reckon it will later....so the sp could oscillate at a guess between 20p right up to 40p....before bidding...I'm guessing of course....I doubt that you'd be out of pocket coming in now with patience...

Volume suggests traders taking profits? Perhaps the end of day positions will give a clue as what to expect on Monday(19th)?

I agree Cyril. Best thing now is to position yourself for monday trading. I'm happy to hold and will add if the sp drops sub 26p.

I think that if a bid came...shorters would be : how shall I put it...well there is no easy word..."stuffed".....

If SEPLAT walk then shorters will be smiling. Take your pick rf. It's a punt. Just don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Brokers put a value of 25p on this , excluding the 'bid potential'.

Yes but it won't last.....of the two : I'd go long because the drop will be 5p...that's all....so the gamble is short 5p....or if there is a bid perhaps 80p wham........nuts to short this !...