I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

The share price seems very confident at this time - I keep waiting on a dip to buy a few more but it just doesn't come.

The new broadband service is going to be a hit and presumably most of the extra income goes straight to the bottom line. A guy I know was raving over the idea he could download a 100mb files in just a few minutes.



ains

Clouds On The Horizon For BSkyB

By David Kuo (TMFDragon)
May 13, 2003



BSkyB (LSE: BSY)(NYSE: BSY) must be doing something right to achieve its fourth consecutive quarter of net profit and third uninterrupted quarter of improving revenues. In the third-quarter, the satellite broadcaster posted a bottom-line profit of 17m compared to a loss of 31m last time. Revenues rose to 819m, up 17% from the same period last year.

The company has also attracted a further 150,000 Direct-To-Home (DTH) customers, taking its viewer base to 6.7m subscribers. In addition to those DTH customers, BSkyB also reckons that one or more Sky channels are now distributed to 12m homes in the UK and Ireland. This is through its partnerships with cable and digital terrestrial operators.

BSkyB's much improved performance can be attributed, in part, to the lack of market penetration by its debt-laden cable rivals, NTL and Telewest (LSE: TWT). This has allowed BSkyB to retain more of its customers as evidenced by the 9% reduction in churn.

The other contributing factor to BSkyB's improved performance is its high operational gearing. The company runs on relatively low margins but even small improvements to turnover can have a very large effect on profits. In this quarter a 16% increase in turnover more than cancelled out the 8% rise in operating costs. This helped the company post a doubling of operating earnings to 123m.

However, high operational gearing can be a double-edged sword. Any absence of turnover growth coupled with, say, poor cost control could impact profits dramatically the other way.

BSkyB said today that it was "comfortably" on target to achieve its objective of 7m subscribers by the end of 2003. The company's confidence suggests that profit growth is relatively secure for at least the next two quarters. Beyond that, though, the picture becomes a bit murkier.

There are still around 15m homes that have not been converted to BSkyB. The key for the company will be to convince those households of the merits of its multi-channel service. That will not be easy given that Freeview, already installed in 1.4m homes, is expected to grow much faster.

It is estimated that Freeview could be installed in as many as 5m homes by 2005. If that proves true then further profit growth at BSkyB will be that much more difficult to achieve and its market valuation of 13b will look pie in the sky.

Broadband deal hooks up 200 schools
By Rachel Fielding [13-05-2003]
Authority signs 10Mbps internet access deal with Telewest




Education Bradford has invested 2.5m in a five-year deal with Telewest to supply its 203 schools in the region with high-speed internet access.
The education authority has opted out of the government's broadband consortium, believing that it can get better value for money and a faster connection through extending its current deal with Telewest.

The telco is providing a 10Mbps fibre connection to the schools, replacing its own Frame Relay circuits which ran at 64Kbps, 128Kbps and 2Mbps.

The deal gives schools in the region more bandwidth than suggested by government guidelines on bandwidth in schools, which Education Bradford believes are inadequate.

The Department for Education and Skills (DfES) guidelines recommend a 2Mbps synchronous connection for primary schools and an 8Mbps synchronous connection for secondary schools. The government wants all schools connected to the internet by 2006.

Mark Chambers, ICT curriculum development manager at Education Bradford, told vnunet.com: "Schools are clamouring for bandwidth, and anything that delays lessons and gets in the way of learning is something I want to get rid of. All kids deserve this fast access."

Eighty-five of the 203 schools are already connected. "This is an ongoing project," said Chambers. "Developing and purchasing content is the next step."

The network will enable students to access the internet and email, as well as web-based education resources.

As part of the deal, Websense is providing internet filtering software and Synetrix is offering helpdesk and configuration support.

Chambers admitted that it is too early to gauge whether the provision of high speed internet access is likely to have a positive impact on the effectiveness of learning.

"But we're starting to see an impact because schools can use the latest software and industry learning programmes," he said.

AINS,

You follow Telewest quite closely, when is the next big results or restructuring update planned?

What was latest on NTL talks?

Cheers

Ash

Hi Ashley

Next quarter results are in early August but the next likely comment will come at the AGM scheduled for the 12th June.

Although I believe low level talks of possible m+a with ntl have taken place I think it unlikely they will be seriously progressed until the d4e is settled. I do think there will be more cooperation in terms of joint promotion/advertising/marketing



ains

Ains,

Thanks so next real news time 12th June 2003 probably, reason I ask is on 5 min MACD turned up and on hourly turned up from zero this morning.

On daily Bollinger Bands seem to be tightenning and it has broken 50% RSI with burst to 2.29p earlier

Volume is however non existant.

Interesting ..... not the low volumes this morning at 569k in 2 and a half hours ... ssers tends to distort tthe picture early in the ay especially when its quiet. I usually track sets but trade off the order book for better prices

I am looking to add and waiting on a dip - alerts set at 210 on the offer


ains

This is good news although not unexpected ..... spreads are wide at this time and vols still low at just over a milion traded

Note NTL are not included


ains




Six firms named as Govt BB suppliers
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 14/05/2003 at 09:04 GMT


Six companies have been chosen to supply broadband services, kit and consultancy to the public sector.

BT, Easynet, Fujitsu, Kingston, Synetrix and Telewest have all been selected by the Government's procurement outfit, the Office of Government Commerce (OGC), as part of its Broadband Solutions Framework Agreement.

In essence, the "framework agreement" has been set up to help public sector bodies jump on the broadband bandwagon by using companies already vetted by the OGC.

Said OGC boss Peter Gershon in a statement: "This new arrangement will be of major benefit to those government departments who are seeking to develop the use of Broadband.

"It reduces the time and effort required in sourcing broadband products by offering quality goods and services at value for money prices without the need for separate tendering processes."

14 May 2003 11:39 BST

NTL Q1 core earnings in line with forecast

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - Britain's largest cable company NTL reported on Wednesday core earnings just ahead of its own forecast and said it had added 27,100 net new customers in the first quarter.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were 156.5 million pounds ($253 million) in the three months to the end of March, compared with the company's own forecast of 155 million and a fourth quarter figure of 166 million. Turnover was 546.6 million pounds.

12:33 GMT: NTL adds 27,100 net customers in first quarter - UPDATE
(Updating with more details)
LONDON (AFX) - NTL Inc, the UK's largest cable operator, added a slim 27,100 net customers in the first three months of this year, its first set of results since emerging from US Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The company recorded a slight pick up in EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2002 to 156.5 mln stg, from 154.2 mln stg last time.

But group revenue fell to 546.5 mln stg from 556.1 mln, which the company mainly attributed to "challenging conditions" related to its financial restructuring.

"Broadband continues to be a leader with approximately 144,000 new customers, but our telephone products are showing good growth too with a better-than-expected 15,200 new additions," said chief executive Barclay Knapp.

"We're turning the curve on television with digital showing good growth, and our overall rate of decline slowing," he added.

Revenue generating units increased by some 141,400, led by 143,800 broadband additions and 15,200 new telephone additions, said NTL.

In total TV services declined by 17,600 in the quarter but digital services increased and the overall rate of loss of TV services slowed to its lowest level in over a year, said the company.

Triple play customers - taking telephone, TV and Internet services - now represent about 17 pct of NTL's customers, up from 5 pct in the first quarter of 2002.

The company reduced its annualised churn - the rate at which customers cancel NTL's services - to 13 pct from 17.9 pct.

The group posted a net loss of 254.4 mln usd in the three month period, down from 459.9 mln usd a year earlier.

The decline mainly reflected a lower interest expense of 148.3 mln usd in 2003. tf/rn

just left a limit order for a bucketful at 2p, who knows?

Ains,

Notice volume has picked up a bit, and now just going blue.

Maybe looking a bit more interesting anyway I am long.

Cheers

Ash

Yes .... I noted that .... I think the days news on bb and NTL helped generate interest. Recent sets orders indicate a move north more probable intraday

DOWN she goes, excellent

europemedia


Telewest pleased with 2Mb broadband trial
14/05/2003
Editor: David Minto
Telewest has delivered on its promise to offer customers a 2Mb home broadband option.

Starting in April, Telewest conducted a month long trial with 1,500 lucky 1Mb blueyonder customers, 85 per cent of whom are reported to have said the upgraded service met or exceeded their expectations.

The cable company is now offering customers the choice of three broadband connections speeds: 512kb, 1Mb and 2Mb. Telewest reported that it had 310,000 broadband subscribers on its books by the end of April, of whom about 30,000 receive the faster 1Mb service. No doubt Telewest hopes similar numbers will now flock to the E70 (GBP50) a month 2Mb, and has said that existing blueyonder customers can upgrade to the new service without incurring any additional charge.

Another quiet start with less than 400k traded in an hour


fyi


NTL blames BSkyB costs for fall in TV subscribers

Dan Milmo
Thursday May 15, 2003
The Guardian

NTL chief executive Barclay Knapp warned BSkyB yesterday that its wholesale revenues will continue to plummet unless it slashes the cost of premium channels



ADVERTISEMENT

including Sky Sport 1 and Sky MovieMax.
Mr Knapp said Britain's largest cable operator was no longer chasing TV subscribers after emerging from a tortuous 7bn debt restructuring last year because the cost of buying channels from the pay-TV broadcaster and selling them on to customers remains prohibitive. NTL has lost 150,000 TV subscribers since the beginning of 2002, with 18,000 of those going since December, according to first-quarter results released yesterday.

"BSkyB could change that for us. We have had long-running discussions with Sky on how profitable it is to resell Sky's services. The way they have priced their premium services gives us no incentive to add them. If they give us an incentive we will be able to sell them," said Mr Knapp.

BSkyB said in third-quarter results released on Tuesday that wholesale revenues - the amount it makes from selling channels to rival pay-TV services - had tumbled 34% to 146m following the collapse of ITV Digital last year and NTL's debt crisis.

ITV Digital, NTL and cable operator Telewest took their complaints about wholesale pricing to the office of fair trading in 1999 but a long-running inquiry absolved BSkyB of anti-competitive behaviour last year. Telewest has negotiated new terms with the satellite broadcaster and a BSkyB spokesman said the group would welcome a deal with NTL. "We remain willing to enter into a mutually beneficial agreement," he said.

NTL said it added 27,000 UK customers in the first three months of the year, despite the slump in TV subscriptions. The group's home division, which supplies TV, telephone and high-speed internet services, now has 2.71 million subscribers. The number of broadband internet subscribers climbed by 144,000 from the previous quarter to 661,000.

Recalling the colourful analogies that made him one of the stars of the dotcom boom, Mr Knapp likened the restructured group to a patched-up car.

"If you get your car out of the repair shop you don't put it on the highway at 100mph. Right now we're just driving it round the block, testing the brakes," he said.

Lower interest payments on its debt, which fell from 12bn to about 5bn, helped cut its first-quarter loss by nearly half to $254m (158m), while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were 156.5m against 154m for the same period last year. Revenues slipped from 556m to 547m after NTL stripped out a one-off, non-cash income gain of 4.2bn related to the restructuring.

Ains,

Up she goes, we need to clear that 2.35p mid area to break but at 2.28p possible.

No real volume yet though.

Hi ash

problem I see with TWT is the same as moni although it obvoiusly has greater scope as shareholders will get 3.5%

however - given TWT's poor trading performance and that of Sky the future prospects are as clear as Mud

p.s. Well done on RED - why the huge volume today - are results out soon?