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DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD Monday, January 24, 2005 22:24 GMT Daily Report By Ian Copsey, FX-Strategy http://www.fx-strategy.com   FXstreet/FX-Strategy Forex Workshops 2004 Due to popular demand FXstreet/FX-Strategy is now offering currency traders the opportunity to train first-hand with Doug Schaff, developer of FX-Strategy"s trading systems. More Information   General Outlook: Price: 1.3043 Resistance: 1.3068 ... 1.3106 ... 1.3135 ... 1.3170 Support....: 1.3024 ... 1.2993 ... 1.2976 ... 1.2950 Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks Bullish: The break of 1.3042 has alerted us to the possibility of a slightly more bullish short term stance. We see support at 1.2993-1.3006 and while this holds the downside a break back above resistance between 1.3044-71 would provide a more bullish tone with a minimum move to 1.3135 and we suspect to 1.3150-70 which we feel should hold. Only a break of this higher level would provoke gains to follow-through back to the 1.3291 peak at least. Bearish: The break above 1.3042 is a bit damaging to the bearish view and before returning to looking for further losses we would prefer a break of the 1.1993-1.3006 support. Should this break occur then we would look for follow-through to 1.2946-55 at least and probably an attack on the 1.2921 low. Further support and major support is around 1.2800-46.   Elliott Wave Comments: 24th January 2005 We need to approach the picture here with thought. In the 8-hour chart there are two scenarios labeled to retain the thoughts given last week. However, we do need to consider a third. Firstly it is still unclear whether the 1.3291 peak was Wave (b) or Wave (iii) lower or whether it was actually Wave (iv). If 1.3291 was Wave (b) then we consider the low at 1.2921 as the end of Wave (iii) though the ideal target should have been 1.2846-64. The fact that the losses so far ended at 1.2921 could mean that the alternative with 1.3291 being Wave (iv) is more likely and as such we are seeing (or have completed) Wave (v) lower. The traditional target for Wave (v) could either be a 61.8% projection which rests at 1.2894 or a 76.4% projection which ends at 1.2800. Now with this in mind we have to decide whether the 1.2921 low actually satisfied the 61.8% target but fell short by 30 points or whether it represented Wave -a- of Wave (v). The latter would imply that could rally as high as 1.3150-70 to complete Wave -b- and then expect a Wave -c- to then target the 1.2800 area. This would imply that any break above 1.3150-70 would imply the end of Wave (v) was seen at 1.2921 and thus a recovery to 1.3291 (50% retracement) or 1.3385 (691.8% retracement and pivot resistance) can be seen before further losses. If anything, the daily cycles would tend to suggest this latter view.

And we are off

Sold EUR/USD 1.3043, stop at 63

night

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,3051. EUR USD broke 1,3020 resistance. EUR USD is in an downtrend directed by 4H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to consolidate. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. RSI goes out overbought state and give a negative signal. The price should consolidate.
Long terme (Weekly)
EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should resume with more vigor..
Resistances
1,3060 - 1,3100
Supports
1,3020 - 1,2980 - 1,2930

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,8765. GBP USD is in a range between 1,8550 and 1,8800. GBP USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The price is just bellow 1,8800 resistance. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. The price should find a support above 1,8620. We could take a short position at 1,8775. We will put the stop loss above 1,8810 (-35 pips). The targets are 1,8620 (+155 pips) 1,8470 (+305 pips). This is a dangerous trade, take care and put your stop loss.
Medium term (Daily)
GBP USD broke the triangle pattern's resistance. The pattern's objective is 2,0000. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should continue on 2,0000 resistance.
Long term (Weekly)
GBP USD is in a triangle pattern. GBP USD is in an uptrend supported by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum.
Resistances
1,8740 - 1,8780
Supports
1,8710 - 1,8660 - 1,8550

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,88. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. Oscillators are neutral. The price should find a support above 102,00. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum.
Long term (Weekly)
USD JPY is in an downtrend directed by Weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. MACD is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should resume with more vigor..
Resistances
103,00 - 103,20
Supports
102,60 - 102,00

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,1859. USD CHF is in an uptrend supported by 4H exponential moving averages. The price is just above 1,1840 support. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. Oscillators are neutral. The price should find a resistance below 1,1900. We won't take a position.
Medium term (Daily)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by daily exponential moving averages. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are tightened. daily MACD crosses and gives a positive signal. The price should continue to consolidate. The price should find a resistance below 1,1800.
Long term (Weekly)
USD CHF is in an downtrend directed by weekly exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are drawing the trend. RSI is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue on 1,1200 support.
Resistances
1,1900 - 1,1970
Supports
1,1840 - 1,1780

Good morning..

Closed my overnight EUR/USD short for -9, no real damage. Now short cable 1.8777

mng jeff,just stuck a long in usd chf@ 40..stop @ 25

AUD rebounds to 77 US cents on softer US sentiment

The AUD had found support at around US$0.7570/80 level and climbed back in generally one direction to as high as US$0.7715. The AUD was up about one US cent by the pre-weekend profit-taking after a week of gains in the greenback. The gain followed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report that was softer than expected. The preliminary reading of its consumer confidence index for January was 95.8 with the market forecast a rise to 98.0, down from December's final reading of 97.1.

The EUR bounced back against the dollar on Friday after US consumer confidence data was weaker than expected. Market sentiment on the dollar was underpinned by expectations of more US interest rate hikes. The pair had staged a nice recovery toward its resistance level at US$1.3000 from intraday lows of US$1.2934 in the wake of the gloomy US consumer confidence. The highs was touched at US$1.3067 and finished at US$1.3053 into New York close.

The cable tumbled near a US cent from US$1.8738 to intraday lows of US$1.8614 after the UK retail sales data for December showed an unexpected month on month contraction of 1.0 per cent in the Christmas shopping period. Some analysts had expected retail sales to grow at a slower pace than in November but the actual year on year rate of 3.2 per cent was well below the 5.5 per cent the market had been forecasting. The monthly drop was the biggest in December since 1981. However, the cable pulled back from intraday lows to as high as US$1.8809 in the wake of the weaker-than-expected Michigan sentiment.

The dollar attempted to climb higher to intraday peak at 103.91 yen in the afternoon during London trading session. The dollar did not bother to test the 104.00 hurdle but slipped down to as low as 102.63 yen following the release of a softer US sentiment report. Some analysts said Japan might point to the Group of Seven's warning against excessive rate volatility to justify stepping in to buy bundles of dollars if the yen jumped aggressively and threatened peaks since 1995 around 101.25.

Gold finished at US$426.80 an ounce, up about US$4 from Thursday's late quote at US$422.40/90 and intraday highs of US$428.20. Some traders said the market would continue to be guided by currency moves. Silver finished at US$6.78/81an ounce from its late Thursday quote at US$6.52/55.

Intraday Range Forecast, Resistance and Support Levels
USD/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 102.70 / 103.00
R: 103.00/103.42/103.92
S: 102.49/102.02/101.67

EUR/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.3035 / 1.3060
R: 1.3068/1.3119/1.3138
S: 1.3012/1.2947/1.2922

USD/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.1835 / 1.1865
R: 1.1878/1.1914/1.1969
S: 1.1833/1.1806/1.1748

GBP/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.8740 / 1.8770
R: 1.8810/1.8860/1.8918
S: 1.8739/1.8689/1.8614

AUD/USD
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.7690 / 0.7715
R: 0.7715/0.7745/0.7798
S: 0.7652/0.7623/0.7565

EUR/JPY
Intraday Range Forecast: 133.95 / 134.25
R: 134.38/134.85/135.07
S: 133.80/133.27/133.01

EUR/GBP
Intraday Range Forecast: 0.6945 / 0.6965
R: 0.6981/0.7012/0.7039
S: 0.6916/0.6873/0.6843

EUR/CHF
Intraday Range Forecast: 1.5450 / 1.5475
R: 1.5505/1.5515/1.5548
S: 1.5441/1.5401/1.5379

Morning all.

Morning All, I am short Cable at mo

mng,yep dt,looks a bit toppish @ these levels,

pound short getting more tempting

stop out of chf.
still looking to get back in 1800 lvl

Very cold here, and snowy. Came in from trying to de-ice the wife's car to see Cable breaking up; went long 05 for +15. It's still going up (of course)

magg still a profit..with fx ,,you have to forget all deals ntg u can do,my first trade on chf ,a loser..nt bothered just move on..you are never going to get every move right....guys i know who work for the hedges look to get 3 out of 10 right,but the 3 they do get right,,make the money...

mostrader. Letting profits run is so difficult on FX, at the start of a move. So often I've been 10 points up only to see a spike down and immediately I'm losing; I let it run and am soon 20 points down. I am looking to take just a few points for a few weeks to see if I can make a profit, because my records show that I tend to lose on FX what I make on stocks.

sure magg, thers no art to taking profits ..theres never a good time or bad time,just get a feel for a certain currency and then you will feel more comfy with the moves.

just got into work to see I was stopped out of my cable short for -30